MLS Cup Playoffs Picks – MLS Predictions Round One (Nov 1-3)

MSL Cup Playoffs Round One action rolls on with Game 2s from Friday to Sunday this weekend with 8 games and we’re ready to break down the action with our MLS predictions, picks and parlays.

In the first round of games we saw: 

• Home Teams: Won 6/8 but 1 needed penalties, so 5-1-2
• Draws: Only 2
• O/U: 3-5 to the Under

Let’s move on to Friday and our top MLS picks.

Charlotte FC vs Orlando SC Prediction

The City of Charlotte gets their first home playoff game in any sport since 2016 on Friday.

Charlotte looks to bounce back at home in Game 2 after losing 2-0 in Game 1. Orlando led in shots 17-9 and shots on target 6-2 and goals from Facundo Torres and Martin Ojeda gave them the win. The Crown will be without Pep Biel who took a late red card in the 91’. This weakens them offensively, but he did have only 2 goals in 10- games. 

The teams were only separated by 1 point in the season with Orlando 4th and Charlotte 5th. 

Orlando now has only 4 losses in their last 18 matches in all comps. Only once, in 22 games, Cruz Azul in the Leagues Cup, have they failed to score. Over the last 15 rounds of regular season play they were 10-1-4 and only Seattle and Miami have collected more points. 

Only 7 teams collected more home points than Charlotte this season. Overall, the 37 goals conceded was bested only by Seattle’s 35. Charlotte’s games averaged a league-low 2.4 GPG and they were 1 of only 3 teams to play to more Under 2.5s than Overs, going 20-14 to the Under, the highest rate. 

Orlando had given up a goal in 5 straight and 9 goals in those 5 games before the Game 1 shutout win.

Charlotte had been undefeated in 5 games (4-1-0) before losing in Game 1.

In the regular season, they drew 2-2 in Charlotte in June and Orlando won at home 2-0 in September. So the Lions have now scored 2 goals vs Charlotte 3 times this season.

Orlando has been so good late, but the Crown are at home and need this. Should be close. Charlotte should also score.

• MLS Predictions: Charlotte to score

Colorado Rapids vs LA Galaxy Prediction

The Galaxy were dominant at home all season only losing once and that continued in Game 1 where they routed Colorado 5-0. Dejan Joveljic and Riqui Puig each scored a brace and even LB John Nelson got involved in the scoring. LA had 67% possession and led in shots 18-1 and shots on target 9-0.

Now the venue switches to Colorado. The Galaxy aren’t as good away from home at 6-4-7 but still outscored opponents 26-25. 

The Rapids had the 6th-best home point total and were 10-3-4 outscoring opponents 33-22. 

Since May 25 in all comps LA has 16 wins, 7 losses, and 1 draw where they won in PKs. So they rarely draw. 6 of those 7 losses were on the road though so this could be a spot for Coloraod to level the series.

Home or away LA has scored multiple goals now in 6/7. But then they’ve conceded in 7/8 straight and 16/17. The BTTS & Over 2.5 has gone 7-1 and 12-2.

The Rapids picked bad time to hit a slump having lost 3-0, 3-1, 1-0 and then 3-2 on Decision Day and now most recently 5-0.

On the injury front, keeper Zach Steffen returned last game, but Cole Bassett still missed out and Đorđe Mihailović left Decision Day being stretchered off with an ankle injury and missed out last game too. So that is once again likely their 2nd and 3rd scorers out, leaving top-scorer Rafael Navarro as basically the main and only threat. He had 15 goals. 4th-leading scorer Kevin Cabral had 5 this season.

The Galaxy took both meetings in the regular season winning 3-2 at home and 3-1 on the road so have scored 3+ goals vs Colorado 3 times this season now.

The good news for Colorado is they’re at home with the altitude advantage and without aggregate scoring in the MLS playoffs, they don’t need to equal Game 1’s 5-0 loss, they just need to win in some way. But … they’re injured and in poor form. LA has lost 4 of 5 road games losing 3-1, 2-1, 4-2 and 2-1. The 1 win though, was two games back vs the Rapids (3-1).

• MLS Predictions: LA to score

Minnesota United vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

This one is on Sunday.

Game 1 ended in a 0-0 draw where Minnesota went on to win in PKs 5-4. Both teams did have 11 shots and 6 on target though. 

A draw between these teams is nothing new as it’s now 5 straight draws between them with other scores being 1-1 and 0-0 this year and 1-1 and 2-2 last year. So in 3 games this season we’ve seen just 1 goal from each team. 

Both teams entered the playoffs hot.

The Loons, since Leagues Cup are 6-2-2, in regulation with just 1 loss in 9 and finishing the season undefeated in 5 games, with 4 wins. They’ve scored in all but 2 of those 9 games and have kept clean sheets in 5/6.

RSL has now only lost twice in 10 games (in regulation) since Leagues Cup with 0 regulation losses in their last 7 games, while only conceding 1 goal in their last 4 games.

This again looks too close to call. Maybe a Minnesota home win to end the series, but a draw or Under is very likely which is how I saw Game 1 ending too, but didn’t bet it.

RSL is 3-1 to Under 2.5 recently and 5-0 to Under 4.5.

MIN is also 3-1 to Under 2.5 and 6-1 to Under 4.5.

A draw (+270) or Under 2.5 (+135) look like great options or the Under 3.5 or Under 4.5 in a parlay.

• MLS Predictions: Under 4.5
• Parlay Picks: CHA to score / LAG to score / MIN vs RSL under 4.5 (-131)

NYCFC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

Game 1 saw Cincinnati take advantage of their home field, outshooting New York 22-6, 7-2 in shots on target and Yamil Asad’s 51’ minute goal stood up as the game-winner in a 1-0 win. NYC really didn’t create much, in fact they lost the xG battle by a wider margin than any other team in any Game 1 game, and saw Tayvon Gray take a red card at the end of the game so he’ll miss Game 2.

This will be the 5th meeting this season with Cincy winning 1-0 at home in MLS, 4-2 at home in the LEC and then NY winning 3-2 at home in MLS in early October.  Cincy has won 6 of the past 7 overall between them.

Despite a decent season where they finished 6th, that earlier win over Cincy was New York’s only win over a top 3 team in either conference all season.

Interestingly a home team has still never failed to score between them in 15 all-time meetings. 

New York now has only 3 wins in 11 games overall. They’ve conceded in 14 straight, scored in 12/14 and BTTS is 12-2  

Cincy has now scored in 13/15, but only have 2 wins in 6 games, have conceded in 6/7, 11/13 and the BTTS and Over 2.5 is recently 6-1. 

Outside of last game both of these teams usually are good BTTS teams.

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami Prediction

The stars came out in Game 1 with Luis Suarez and Jordi Alba scoring for Miami and Saba Lobzhanidze for Atlanta, in what ended in a 2-1 Miami win. 

It was Saba-Time once again as Saba vs Miami this season has had 5, 5 and 2 shots and 2, 1, and 1 goals.

The regular season scores were Atlanta 3-1 in Miami in May and then a 2-2 draw in Atlanta in September.

Despite the close score in Game 1, it easily could have gotten out of hand if not for Atlanta keeper Brad Guzan who had 9 saves last game. Miami had 22 shots, 11 on target and 2 goals. 

Since losing to Columbus in the Leagues Cup, Miami won 3, drew 3 and then ended winning 3 more. They outscored opponents 23-10 in that time.

Miami the first team in MLS history to have 2 players with 20+ goals in Messi and Saurez.

As great as they’ve been offensively, defense is always a question. All season-long the BTTS and Over 2.5 bet has been money in Miami games going 31-12 in all competitions.

The Five Stripes have been a great BTTS and Over 2.5 bet themselves with recent scorelines of 2-1, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2 and 2-2.

Atlanta came into last game winners of 3 straight but they only have 5 wins in 19 across all comps so will be up against it to upset Miami here. One thing I expect though, is goals, especially with Atlanta seeing teo defenders in Brooks Lennon and Stian Gregersen leave last game injured.

• MLS Predictions: Miami over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: NYC vs CIN btts / MIA over 1.5 (+133)

New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew Prediction

The Crew scored 3 goals in both games this season winning 3-0 at home and 3-2 in New York. There had been 3+ goals in each of the past 5 meetings and the BTTS had been 7-1. Those high-scoring Crew win trends came crashing down in Game 1 when New York went to Lower.com Field and won 1-0 behind Felipe Carballo’s 25’ minute goal. New York for the win despite having only 22% possession and being outshot 15-11 and 8-3.

Columbus was without Diego Rossi who sat out injured and is worth monitoring for Game 2. 

If you saw this upset coming for New York you were likely in the minority. After Tuesday’s win in all comps, and they have just 4 wins in 21 games and just 2 wins in 12 games. Usually their defense struggles, having conceded multiple goals in 5/6 before the Game 1 win. Offensively, the Red Bulls have now scored in 10/11.

The Crew ended the season with 3-2, 4-0 and 3-2 wins, but have now given up a goal in 7/8 and 14 goals in 8 games. Overs were cashing at 6-1 to both 2.5 and 3.5 totals prior to the 1-0 loss last game.

There’s a great +200 price on Columbus to win here, but surely they at least score if they control the game the same way as Game 1. 

• MLS Predictions: Columbus to score

Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders Prediction

Coming into Game 1 I gave a whole bunch of stats of why this game looked like an Under or Draw, and then I went and bet on Seattle to score a goal. The whole analysis was right. The bet was wrong.

It was 0-0 with Seattle going on to win in PKs. The Sounders had 55% possession, and outshot the Dynamo 18-7 and 2-0 in shots on target. With only 2 shots on target, it’s not surprising the xG was miniscule as well, 1.03 for Seattle and 0.45 for Houston. Houston also played the final half hour down a man as central playmaker Coco Carrasquilla took a red card in the 66’.

The Sounders could be down a man as well as Jordan Morris left last game with a hamstring injury.

Back to all the low-scoring stats between these teams. 

Seattle allowed the fewest goals in the league at 35, while Houston gave up the 3rd-fewest with 39. 

Seattle was 1st in xGA, Houston was 9th. Seattle allowed the fewest shots on target and Houston the 7th-fewest. 

Only 3 teams played to more Under 2.5 totals this season and Seattle at 18-16 was one of them. Houston was 17-17 and both teams saw their games average an almost-league-low at 2.5 GPG. Only Charlotte’s games averaging 2.4 GPG saw fewer. 

If we look at current form Seattle is now 5-3-0 in regulation, keeping 6 clean sheets in 8 games. Only once in their last 10 games have they given up more than 1 goal in a game.

Houston has been in generally good form since Leagues Cup too at 5-3-3 in regulation, with only 2 losses in 10. They too have only given up more than a single goal in a game once in their past 11 games. However, they do only have 2 wins in 5 and have been shut out in 3 of those 5. 

In the regular season, they drew 2-2 in Houston and Seattle won 1-0 in Seattle on September 28. In that game Seattle had the shots on target edge at 4-1, so Houston now has only 1 shot on target in the last 2 combined games vs Seattle.

Back home here, the Dynamo should have a better chance to equal the series. They’ve not lost in 5 home games (scoring multiple goals 3 times) and have only 2 home regulation losses in 15 in all comps. But, those last 4 home games have seen them concede in each one.

Win or lose, Houston gave up just 15 goals in 17 home games so I don’t see them getting blown out.

• MLS Predictions: Under 4.5

Vancouver Whitecaps vs LAFC Prediction

These teams met in the playoffs last year and LAFC won 5-2 and 1-0. They met again this year too and LAFC again got the better of the Caps winning 2-1, though it was 2-0 until a late Ryan Gauld goal in the 94’. The shot attempts and shots on target were an even 15-15 and 4-4 though. Carlos Vela made his highly-anticipated return to the black and gold and logged a few minutes at the end of the game. 

In knockout round games in recent seasons, LAFC has outscored the Caps 20-3. 

Other scores this season were 2-1 LAFC, 2-2 (LEC) and 3-0 LAFC.

There’s been 3+ goals now in 8 of the past 10 meetings. 

LAFC are in some of their best form right now winning the USOC, then winning 5 more games to snatch 1st in the West on Decision Day, before winning in Game 1 too. So it’s 7 straight wins where they’ve outscored teams 16-5.

You can’t say the same for Vancouver who backed into the playoffs with 4 straight losses and winless in 7 MLS games before blowing out Portland 5-0 in the Wild Card Game. 

LAFC always seem to get the best of Vancouver and should win but the Caps hung around last game and at home could score.

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
• Parlay Picks: CLB to score / HOU vs SEA under 4.5 / VAN vs LAFC btts (+106)