It’s NFL Week 6 and here is this week’s NFL best bets, we have one four-game parlay created at Bet365. But not a typical parlay. I’ve grouped a variety of props to create a simple and fun bet for this weekend’s NFL predictions, picks and parlays.
Texans vs Patriots Prediction
The Patriots got tired of the Jacoby Brissett experience and are turning to rookie Drake Maye after a 1-4 start.
Houston may not be covering spreads at 1-3-1 but they are winning games at 4-1 SU.
Houston lost WR Nico Collins to injury last week which is a big loss.
But New England is littered with injuries throughout the secondary, offensive line and RB Stevenson and WR Bourne are also questionable, with Bourne limited at practice and Stevenson missing it entirely. Their OL has given up the 2nd most sacks (19) so far and that’s unlikely to improve vs a Texans’ D that has put up the 8th-most sacks (15). Not a recipe for success for a rookie QB in his first start.
The Pats’ WR group have totalled the fewest catches and yards of any team. The offense as a whole is ranked 31st in yards and PPG.
- NFL Predictions: Texnas moneyline
Commanders vs Ravens Prediction
The 4-1 Commanders travel to Baltimore to face the 3-2 Ravens. Both have been moneymakers for Over bettors being 4-1, powered by offenses that rank 1st in PPG for Washington at 31 and 2nd for Baltimore at 29.4.
Throw in some defenses that rank 26th for the Ravens giving up 25.2 PPG and 20th for Washington allowing 23 PPG and this game has the potential for one of the most exciting of the weekend.
At 51.5 it’s the 2nd-highest total on the board only behind the Lions and Cowboys at 52.
There are all kinds of offensive stats to look at here. Daniels has set a completion percentage and rushing yardage record through his first 5 games. Washington also had a run of 19 straight red zone trips going where they had scored points.
For Baltimore, they’ve rushed for 100+ yards now in 38 straight games and this season have out-rushed opponents by over 100 yardsa each game for a total of over 700 yards. They’re coming a game with the most ever points scored in a Ravens-Bengals matchup (79).
Derrick Henry is obviously a good rushing prop any game and he faces a 22nd-ranked Washington run D giving up 130 YPG on the ground. But then the Ravens have given up the 2nd-most catches and yards to opposing TEs. So Zach Ertz who has 17 catches in 5 games is an option too. He has catch totals of 3, 4, 5, 3 and 2.
The Ravens’ games have averaged 57 PPG so far while the Commanders’ have averaged 54. Surely, both teams score at the very least, 2 TDs each.
- NFL Predictions: Both Teams to Score Over 1.5 TDs + Zach Ertz 1+ reception
Chargers vs Broncos Prediction
This looks low-scoring and the total of 35.5 is the lowest of the week.
The Chargers are 2-2 and 4-0 to the Under and are fresh coming off the bye.
They’re 28th in PPG scored (17), 1st in PPG allowed (12.5) and 5th in YPG allowed.
The Broncos are 3-2 and have won 3 straight. They’re 3-2 to the Under, are 22nd in PPG (19.2), 2nd in PPG allowed (14.6) and 3rd in YPG allowed.
Herbert has still yet to throw for more than 179 yards and the Broncos have cluster injuries on the offensive line. Nothing that adds up to lots of points.
In post meetings 3/5 and 5/7 have gone Under. The last 2 had scores of 16-9 and 24-7 and only 1/7 made it into the 50s.
- NFL Predictions: Alt Total Under 50.5
Steelers vs Raiders Prediction
The Steelers don’t score much, 18.4 PPG (26th), the Raiders don’t score much, 19.2 PPG (22nd) and Pittsburgh is 4-1 to the Under.
The Raiders are 3-2 to the Over since their defense has been poor giving up 26.2 PPG (28th).
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has only allowed 14.6 PPG (2nd) and 298 YPG (8th).
I wouldn’t be against a similar strategy for this game teasing this total up close to 50 and betting the Under.
But the safer bet I keep using is betting on the Steelers and Boswell to kick field goals. Boswell is 12-13 on the year, has 1 FG at least in every game and multiple in 3/5,.
- NFL Predictions: Steelers over 0.5 FGs
- Parlay Picks: Texans moneyline / Commanders vs Ravens both to score over 1.5 TDs + Ertz 1+ rec / Chargers vs Broncos alt total under 50.5 / Steelers over 0.5 FGs (+139)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
