We’re into NFL Week 5 and the parity continues with only 2 teams lined as touchdown favorites and none more than 7 points making it tough to make weekly NFL predictions.
Let’s face it, these games are coin flips. This is why I try to stay away from spread or even moneyline bet bets. Last week we cashed with a parlay at Bet365 that saw:
- Commanders/Cardinals both to score 2+ tds
- Steelers to kick a FG
- Chiefs to score 2+ tds
- Bills/Ravens both to score 10+ pts
- (+101)
Let’s take a similar approach for this weekend’s NFL picks and parlays and NFL Week 5 predictions.
NFL Picks and Parlays #1
Bills vs Texans Prediction
The line has been bouncing between Bills and Texans favored by 1.
The Bills hadn’t lost by more than 6 points in 43 games, until last week’s 35-10 SNF blowout loss in Baltimore.
Buffalo had been piling up the points beforehand in 34-28, 31-10 and 47-10 wins, though wins over the Cards, Dolphins and Jags aren’t top competition.
The Texans are also 3-1 but haven’t blown anyone out in 29-27, 19-13 and 24-20 wins. Their 1 loss was a blowout defeat in Minnesota 34-7. ATS bettors have burned money on Houston as they’re 0-4.
The big story will be Stefon Diggs playing against his old team, now with Houston. Diggs and Nico Collins are both among the league leaders in receptions this season so could be good player props with CJ Stroud also throwing for the 4th most passing yards. Diggs has catch totals of 6, 4, 10 and 5.
The Bills are also allowing a ton of catches in the slot. Tank Dell looks set to return as well giving Houston another weapon.
Meanwhile Buffalo will be without their leading receiver Khalil Shakir out injured so someone else will have to step up. Right now TE Dalton Kincaid is the 2nd leading receiver with catch totals of 1, 4, 3 and 5. Last year he had 2+ catches in 16/18 games.
So too could a play on a Texans’ RB as Buffalo have given the 3rd most yards on the ground and the most receptions (28) and yards (250) to opposing RBs out of the backfield. However, both Texans’ RBs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are questionable. Mixon looks like he’ll be out again as of this recording.
- NFL Predictions: Both Teams Over 1.5 TDs + Diggs 1+ rec, Kincaid 2+ rec
Raiders vs Broncos Prediction
Vegas comes in on 8 straight wins vs Denver. Last year the scores were 17-16 and 27-14.
Las Vegas is 2-2 totals betting while Denver is 3-1 to the Under.
Denver has been great on defense being 2nd in YPG allowed and 3rd in PPG (13.8). But the Bo Nix-led offense has been equally poor, scoring 15.5 PPG (28th). Bo Nix is 3/15 for throws over 10 yards in the middle of the field. He was a disgusting 12-25 for 60 yards passing last week vs the Jets, but did throw his first, and only touchdown on the season.
The Raiders’ defense isn’t awful, but not great either ranking 24th in PPG (24.3), and their offense also struggles, putting up less than 20 PPG, averaging 19.5 (19th).
Raiders’ games have totalled 32, 49, 58 and 36 points. The 58 was vs Carolina who’s given up the most PPG and in Dalton’s first game where the offense came to life.
Broncos’ games have totalled 46, 19, 33 and 19 points.
The total for this game is 36 which is likely fair.
If we tease this up to 50.5 on the alternate total market, I can’t see these teams getting to the 50s. Only once in the past 5 meetings have these 2 played into the 50s.
Raiders’ star WR Davante Adams has requested a trade and won’t play which helps any Under play.
- NFL Predictions: Alt Total Under 50.5
Colts vs Jaguars Prediction
The 2-2 Colts host the 0-4 Jags.
Last year the Jags won 31-21 and 37-20.
9 of the last 10 have seen both teams scoring 10 or more points.
That should continue here with the Colts giving up the most YPG, though only giving up 21.3 PPG (T-14th).
The Jags give up the 3rd most YPG and also the 3rd most PPG.
The Jags are 31st in pass D, but then the Colts are 31st in run D.
The BTTS 10+ point prop is 4-0 for Indy and also 4-0 for Jacksonville.
There is concern with QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor both questionable, but Joe Flacco at QB has proved serviceable. Taylor is 5th in rushing yards with 4 rushing scores.
- NFL Predictions: Both Teams to Score 10+
- Parlay Picks: BUF vs HOU both 2+ tds + Diggs 1+ rec + Kincaid 2+ rec / LV vs DEN alt total U50.5 / IND vs JACK both 10+ pts (-115)
NFL Picks and Parlays #2
Ravens vs Bengals Prediction
The 2-2 Ravens host division rival, the 1-3 Bengals.
Last year Baltimore won 27-24 and 34-20. In the last 7 meetings, the lowest amount of points a team has scored is 16.
Both teams have been Over teams going 3-1 to the Over.
While both are around mid-pack in YPG allowed, when it comes to PPG allowed, the Bengals are 27th giving up 26 PPG and Baltimore is 19th giving up 22 PPG.
Both are among the highest scorers with Baltimore 5th in PPG (26.5) and Cincy T-9th (25.5).
Bengals’ TE Mike Gesicki is 2nd on the team in targets, catches and yards behind Jamarr Chase, and he could be in line for a good day considering the Ravens have given up the 2nd most catches and yards to TEs, only better than the Chiefs. He has catch totals of 3, 7, 4 and 1.
The Ravens’ run D may be 1st, but it’s cause everyone passes on them as they’ve given up the 4th most passing yards per game (257.5).
Cincy has the opposite problem, ranking 11th in pass D, but 25th in run D, giving up an average of 145.5 YPG. This should mean a huge day for Derrick Henry who leads the league in rushing and has 5 scores. He’s had rushing totals of 46, 84, 151 and 199 yards. The Ravens also have 37 straight games rushing for 100 or more yards.
You’d certainly expect the Ravens to score, but Cincy could hang around too and get theirs. Since 2018 AFC North dogs in division are 45-29 ATS and Burrow of as a dog of 2+ points is 18-4 ATS.
- NFL Predictions: Both to Score 2+ TDs + Henry 50+ rush/rec + Gesicki 1+ rec
Panthers vs Bears Prediction
Carolina has seen 3/4 games with both teams scoring 10 or more points. And while they struggled to get to 10 themselves in the first 2 weeks scoring 10 and 3, since Andy Dalton took over at QB they’ve scored 36 and 24. Defensively, they’ve been consistently bad allowing 47, 26, 22 and 34 points. This has led to them being 3-1 to the Over.
Chicago is 3-1 to the Under but has still seen all 4 games with both teams scoring 10+ with scores of 24-17 (W), 19-13 (L), 21-16 (L) and 24-18 (W).
The Panthers are loaded with injuries on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. This should help the Bears to fulfill their part of this prop, but I’ll still bet Dalton can get Carolina 10 of their own.
- NFL Predictions: Both Teams to Score 10+
Cowboys vs Steelers Prediction
The Steelers were/are -2 home favs on SNF.
Dallas has been up and down and hard to trust with 33-17 win, 44-19 loss, 28-25 loss and then a 20-15 win.
The 2 losses where they gave up over 20 points came to the Saints and Ravens, 2 teams that have much better offenses than Pittsburgh’s.
The Steelers have scored 18, 13, 20 and 24. They rank 22nd in PPG (18.8)
They just don’t have an offense capable of pulling away from anyone but they’ll have a slightly easier time this week with both DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons injured. The Cowboys are also out Cooks on offense.
This then should also be a good field goal game with the top kickers in the league facing off. Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey leads the league with 12 FGs, while Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell is tied with San Fran’s Jake Moody for the 2nd most at 11. Aubrey has gone 6-7 from 50+ yards and Boswell 5-6 from long range.
- NFL Predictions: Over 1.5 FGs
- Parlay Picks: BAL vs CIN both over 1.5 TDs + Henry 50+ rush/rec yards + Gesicki 1+ rec / CAR vs CHI both 10+ pts / DAL vs PIT over 1.5 FGs (+101)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
