The MLS regular season is winding down on Saturday, October 5 and Sunday, October 6 we have MLS Week 37 and another chance to make MLS predictions.
On Wednesday saw a boatload of goals. The BTTS & Over 2.5 was 10-4. The Over 2.5 was 11-3. Only 5 of 28 teams didn’t score. And the average goals per game was 3.71 with 52 goals scored.
We’ll follow those goal trends this weekend with 4 parlays, covering 9 games for this weekend’s MLS predictions.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami Prediction
2 Messi goals, 1 from Suarez and a Drake Callender PK save and Miami clinched the Supporters’ Shield on Wednesday beating Columbus 3-2. It gives Messi his 46th overall trophy in his career.
The all-time points record is still on the line, but they’ll need to win here and their final game.
In MLS Miami won 3-1 in Miami in July and then in Miami again for Leagues Cup it was a wild 4-3 win for the Herons again. Miami also won last September in Miami 4-0. So they’ve been scoring for fun vs TFC of late, but the last game in TO was 2-0 TFC, but … that was pre-Messi and friends.
Insigne missed out on Wednesday injured and Bernardeschi got sent off again in that game so he’s out this weekend. TFC lost 4-1 on Wednesday and this could be their last game of the season.
They don’t play on Decision Day, they’re 9th in the standings in the last playoff spot with 37 points, but all of Philly (37), DC (37), Atlanta (34) and Nashville (32) can all still jump them and have a game in hand.
Who’s more motivated here, TFC to make the playoffs or Miami to go for the all-time points record. TFC are certainly out players, Miami might be. TFC have been in this situation for a while and are winless in 5 games in all comps and have been outscored 9-2.
Miami rarely keeps clean sheets but this could be a spot. I don’t know where the TFC goals come from here.
- MLS Predictions: Miami to win +187 or to score over 1.5 (+100)
Columbus Crew vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
Columbus can’t catch Miami so they’ll switch focus to holding onto 2nd with Cincy right behind.
Philly is 1 point out of the playoffs with a game in hand over 9th, Toronto.
The Crew won 3-1 at home in LEC and 1-0 on the road in MLS this season. That 1-0 win in August is the only road team win between these teams in 18 games.
That’s unlikely to change when you consider Columbus at home under Wilfried Nancy has only lost 5 times in 49 games.
They are 31-12-5 with a +59 goal differential. Their only 5 losses were vs Miami on Wednesday, the Campeones Cup in PKs to Club America, vs Seattle recently missing players and down a player, and then Cincy earlier this year and Miami again last year.
The Crew have now gone winless in 3 — 3-2 loss, 2-2 draw, 1-1 draw (pk loss) and 4-3 win. So lots of goals.
Philly too has seen 3+ goals in 4/5 and in 16 games in all comps they’ve only not scored once, but … it was vs this Crew team 7 games ago.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: MIA over 1.5 / CLB vs PHI over 1.5 (+125)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC Prediction
Cincy will either finish 2nd or 3rd. Orlando are 4th but could fall out of those home playoff spots with both New York teams on their heels.
This is always tight. It was 1-0 Cincy in May and past scores were 1-0, 0-0 and 1-0 in 2023 and 2022.
Cincy have lost their last 2, are winless in 3 with just 2 wins in 8 in all comps. With recent scorelines of 3-2, 2-1, 2-2 and 2-1, their games have been great BTTS bets of late.
Over the last 10 rounds of MLS play Orlando and Seattle have collected the most points with 22 at 7-1-2. In all comps the Lions have only 3 regulation losses in 18.
Let’s look at their past 6 in MLS: 3-0 win, 3-0 win, 2-0 win, 4-3 loss, 3-1 win and 2-1 win. Now 4 of those wins came at home, but they still scored 3 goals in the 2 road games too. But in their last 10 road MLS games, they have 1 clean sheet, vs Nashville.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
New England Revolution vs DC United Prediction
Somehow New England is still alive for the playoffs with 3 games left and 6 points back of TFC. But it’s less than 1% and after playing DC this week they’ll face Columbus and Miami. Spoiler. They aren’t making it.
DC is tied with TFC with 37 points, but are 11th, with Philly between them and they’re in a dogfight with those teams, plus Atlanta and Nashville for 9th.
DC fought back to win 4-3 with Nashville being down 3-1 late in the 2nd half, a team they’re fighting for, for the last playoff spot.
Benteke scored again and leads the Golden Boot race with 22 goals. Gabriel Pirani was the star of the day though coming on as a sub and scoring a brace in stoppage time to tie 3-3 and get the 4-3 winner.
They’ve only won 1 of their past 4 and have just 7 wins in 23 in all comps. But, they have scored in 12/13. Thier only 3 wins in 8 have come vs Nashville, Toronto & Chicago, not great teams, but then again neither is New England.
New England lost again, 2-1 in Houston and have 1 win in 7. One positive is that when playing at home they have only 2 losses in 12 in regulation and have scored in all 12. But the BTTS is 9-3 in those games,
In February DC won 2-1 at home and last year the Revs won 2-1 and 4-0. There’s been 3+ goals in 6 of the past 7 meetings and New England has scored in each of the past 14 meetings.
DC needs the win, New England do too, but it matters less, but they’re home and could be playing loose. My options are BTTS, DC double chance, over 1.5 or simply DC to score. Win or lose DC should score. They’ve scored multiple in 7/10.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
- Parlay Picks: CIN vs ORL btts / NE vs DC btts (+133)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
LA Galaxy vs Austin FC Prediction
The Galaxy look to lock up 1st in the West while Austin, by beating Portland on Wednesday have cut the gap between themselves in 10th with 39 points and Portland 9th with 45 points to just 6 points with 2 games left.
The Wednesday win was Austin’s only win over their past 6 and the only time they’ve kept a clean sheet.
LA went to Colorado and won 3-1 Wednesday and won 4-2 last weekend. The Galaxy own the best home record in MLS at 12-3-1 and have scored the most goals with 41.
LA rarely draws, in all comps they are 14-1-6 in regulation, the one draw being in Leagues Cup where they went on to win. All 5 losses in that time were on the road. The 1 home loss was vs LAFC
Austin won 2-0 at home in April. Home teams have scored 2+ goals in each of the past 4 head-to-head meetings. The Galaxy should win or at least score 2. At home they’ve scored multiple in 6 straight and in 12/13. They’re also the first team in MLS history with four players to have scored 10 or more goals in the same season.
- MLS Predictions: LA over 1.5
SKC vs LAFC Prediction
Nothing on the line for SKC, while LAFC have a small chance of catching the Galaxy for 1st but more likely will be looking to not fall out of the top 4.
They just played in the USOC Final where it was 1-1 at the end of regulation and then 3-1 LAFC by the end of extra-time.
In MLS, it was 0-0 in March. LAFC is 5-2-0 in the last 7.
SKC lost their last game 3-1 and have lost 3 straight in all comps.
In MLS, they have scored in 27/32 and conceded in 29/32. BTTS bets for SKC this season have gone 25-7 as well and it’s hit in 8 of their past 11 MLS games.
LAFC looks like the obvious pick for a win, but they’ve not be consistent lately, thire could be some USOC revenge for SKC and it’s SKC’s last home game.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
San Jose Earthquakes vs RSL Prediction
San Jose has the Wooden Spoon clinched a long time ago. RSL are 4th, can still move up but also drop out of the top 4.
San Jose won 2-0 in August and 2-1 in the last meeting last season. This matchup usually sees goals with 10 straight seeing at least 2, and 7/10 seeing 3+. Also, 3 of the last 4 have cashed BTTS & O2.5 bets.
San Jose sprung to life for a rare win on Wednesday at home to Dalals winning 3-2, their only win in 6. There’s been 3+ goals scored in a Quakes’ game in 5/6. This will be their final home game here. San Jose don’t win often but at home they have scored in 5 straight and 10/12.
RSL hasn’t won in 3, but have just 1 loss in 6. RSL have scored multiple goals in 4/6 but then their last 3 games have all been draws, 3-3, 2-2 and 0-0 on Wednesday vs Minnesota. That nil-nil is the only game in 14 for RSL there hasn’t been 2+ goals.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: LAG win / SKC vs LAFC over 1.5 / SJ vs RSL over 1.5 (-115)
MLS Picks and Parlays #4
2 games on Sunday.
NYCFC vs Nashville SC Prediction
NYCFC are 2 points behind Orlando for 4th in the home-field spots so will want a win for a chance at that. Nashville likely saw their playoffs hopes go up in smoke after they coughed up a 3-1 lead with DC and lost 4-3 on Wednesday. They’re 4 points back of the playoffs with 3 teams between them in 13th and Toronto in 9th. They have a 1% chance of making it.
It was just 1-0 Nashville in Nashville in June. In the brief 5-game history between them Nashville is 3-1-1 and a road team has never won.
After an embarrassing 5-1 loss to Philly, NYC drew 1-1 with Miami, blew out rivals Red Bulls 5-1 and beat Cincy 3-2 on Wednesday. NYC may have only those 2 wins in 8 in all comps but have scored in 11 straight.
Wednesday was Nashville’s last home game and they blew it. Morale has to be low right now but it’s been low for a while as the Yotes in all comps are 2-1-12 since June 29. Those 2 wins came vs non-playoff teams, Chicago and Atlanta.
- MLS Predictions: NYCFC to score
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction
Portland missed a chance to lock up the playoffs losing to Austin this week and now are only 6 points above the Verde with 2 games to go. Dallas’ season came to an official end Wednesday losing 3-2 to San Jose.
Dallas won in Frisco in July 3-2 but other scores have been lower scoring at 1-0, 1-1 and 1-1 in 2023 and 2022.
You can’t trust Dallas to win after losing to San Jose, seeing their playoff dreams end, and having just 2 wins in 10 games. This should be a letdown, and maybe they get up for the home finale next weekend. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 6-1 in recent Dallas games so we could see goals. The total goals in those games have been 5, 4, 4, 5, 0, 5 and 7.
The Timbers may be slumping a bit at a bad time with 0 wins in 3, 1 win in 5 and 2 wins in 8. The BTTS is 6-2 in those 8.
Portland needs to lock up the playoffs here and at home, the 39 goals scored are only fewer than the Galaxy’s 41, also tied with Miami. They got shut out and lost at home Wednesday but they have gone 9-2-0 in the previous 11 home games in all comps scoring multiple in 10 of those 11.
- MLS Predictions: Portland over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: NYC to score / POR over 1.5 (-150)
I do think both home teams can win and that would be better odds if you want to go that way. At -150 this parlay just makes the cut for the juice I’m willing to lay.
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
