South America World Cup Qualifying Matchday 8 Predictions

The international break continues and in South America, it’s CONMEBOL WCQ Matchday 8 with 5 games kicking off on Tuesday, September 10.

A lot of these games have been tight with most teams playing to the Under in qualfiying more often than not. That continued on Matchday 7 with Under 2.5 going 3-2, and it was almost 4-1 if not for a 91’ minute goal from Argentina to make it 3-0.

Argentina meets Colombia in the first game of Matchday 8 Tuesday.

Additionally, while the prices may look tempting, it’s rare that many road teams win in these games. Argentina have won all 3 of their road games, but after that, 4 teams have 1 road win and the other 5 have 0.

Let’s break down all 5 games and make Tuesday’s CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying predictions.

Colombia vs Argentina Prediction

Colombia vs Argentina is the first of five matches in South American World Cup Qualifying for Matchday 8 this week. 

Kick-off at 4:30pm EST.

Colombia vs Argentina Odds

• COL +175
• DRAW  +200
• ARG +175

This is a rematch of the Copa America Final which ended 0-0 with Argentina winning 1-0 in extra-time.

Form

Colombia

Colombia kept their impressive form going away to Peru last week drawing 1-1. They controlled the game with 70% possession but they were down 1-0 until Luiz Diaz drew them level in the 82’.

They’re still the only team yet to lose during qualifying at 3-4-0, making them 3rd in the table, 1 point back of Uruguay and 5 back of their opponents this game, Argentina. 

Their loss to Argentina in the Copas is the only time in 15 games they have not scored a goal. And it’s their only loss in their last 30 games. Manager Nestor Lorenzo has only seen 1 defeat (the Copa final) during his time in charge.

In fact, each of their past 2 losses has been 1-0 defeats to Argentina. 

Argentina

Goals by Mac Allister, Alvarez and Dybala paced Argentina to a 3-0 win over Chile last week. They held 65% possession, led in shots 16-5 and shots on target 8-1. However, though the score ended lopsided, it was just 1-0 until lte goals in the 84’ and 91’.

Argentina is top of the table at 6-0-1 and have only allowed 1 goal in those 7 games, and are 4 points clear of 2nd place Uruguay. 

They didn’t blow anyone away during Copa America but still won 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 (pk win), 2-0 and 1-0 (ET win) in the final against Colombia.

Bet against Argentina at your own risk. They’ve won 12 straight, 26/27 and are 52-10-2 in their past 64.

A rematch of the 2024 Copa America Final headlines a day of CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. 🔥#FIFAWorldCup | #WeAre26

— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) September 10, 2024

Colombia vs Argentina Picks

Both teams are 5-2 to the Under and both average less than 2 GPG in their matches at 1..9 (ARG) and 1.6 (COL). And both recent meetings have been tight at 1-1 and 0-0 in regulation.

Both are riding impressive runs and are hard to bet against. Argentina is also undefeated in 13 road WCQ games as well. And Colombia has just 1 win vs Argentina in 13 meetings. 

James Rodriguez only played a half last game so should be fresh, but they’re out David Ospina and Davinson Sanchez. For Argentina, Messi is still recovering from his ankle injury suffered during Copa America. While Nicolas Tagliafico, Leonardo Balerdi and Exequiel Palacios are all out as well.

The odds of +200 for a draw are the shortest draw odds for any of the 5 games this week so oddsmakers are also expecting this to be tight, as both teams are priced at +175 on the moneyline too.

At -225 for Under 2.5, the Under is only playable in a parlay unless you get creative.

Instead, I’ll say the draw looks like the best bet.

• CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Predictions: Draw (+200)

Ecuador vs Peru Prediction

Ecuador vs Uruguay kicks off at 5pm EST.

Ecuador vs Peru Odds

• ECU -239
• DRAW  +310
• PER +800

Head-to-Head

In 2021 Peru won 2-1 in WCQ and they drew 2-2 in the Copa America, with the most recent meeting, a 2022 qualifier also drawing at 1-1. Peru has only won 1 of the past 5 meetings, including 2 friendlies. 

Form

Ecuador

They held Brazil to just 1 goal last week and 3 shots on target, but only had 2 shots on target themselves and lost 1-0 in new manager Sebastian Beccacece’s first game in charge.

That puts them 3-2-2 and 6th in the table. In scoring just 5 goals and allowing only 4, they’re 5-2 to the Under with games averaging just 1.3 GPG.

They only won 1 game at Copa America, but going out in the quarters to Argentina would have been expected and they pushed them to PKs in a 1-1 draw. 

Go further back and Ecuador has been in strong form at 10-3-6, scoring in 12 of those 19 games.

Peru

On Matchday 7 they drew at home to Colombia 1-1, but they’re still the only winless team at 0-3-4, sitting 10th overall, with just 2 goals scored. That lack of goalscoring has contributed to them going a perfect 7-0 to the Under.

During Copa America they drew Chile 0-0, lost to Canada 1-0 and Argentina 2-0. Those last 2 losses broke up a streak of 6 games undefeated but they also only have 3 wins in their past 15 games now in all comps.

During those 15 games they’ve scored just 9 goals, and 4 of them came in 1 game, a friendly vs the Dominican Republic. They’ve also been shut out 9 times in those 15 games.

Ecuador vs Peru Picks

Ecuador has a strong run of 9 home WCQ games where they have not lost right now. 

I’m giving Ecuador the obvious edge here at home but that is heavily juiced so let’s combine an Under into a SGP.

• CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Predictions: Ecuador to win and Under 4 (-125)

Chile vs Bolivia Prediction

Chile vs Bolivia kicks off at 5pm EST.

Chile Bolivia Odds

• CHI -350
• DRAW +450
• BOL +900

Head-to-Head

They drew 0-0 in a 2023 friendly and Chile won 3-2 in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in their last competitive match. Chile usually gets the win vs Bolivia with only 2 losses across their last 24 overall meetings, being 15-7-2.

Form

Chile

It was a 3-0 loss to Argentina last week, but it was only 1-0 until late in the game.

That leaves Chile with just 1 win in 7 WCQ games and 1-2-4 with 5 points, sitting 9th, only above the winless Peru.

This is not a great Chile team right now with only 2 wins in 10, 6 wins in 26 and they scored 0 goals in 3 Copa America games.

But they only allowed 1, with two 0-0 draws and a 1-0 loss (ARG).

5 of those 6 Chile wins came at home so they could have a chance to add to that here at home to Bolivia, but I’m not sure -350 for Chile has much value.

Bolivia

Bolivia is also struggling, sitting 8th at 2-0-5, but 1 of those 2 wins came last week with a huge 4-0 home win over Venezuela. Bolivia had 4 different scorers and scored early and late in the 13’, 1st half stoppage time, 46’ and 89’ minutes. They piled up 19 shot attempts and 8 shots on target in the game.

It was a good start for new manager Oscar Villegas in his first game in charge 

They’re usually a tough team to bet on though. They lost all 3 Copa America games (2-0, 5-0, 3-1). They have only 4 wins in 26 and have been outscored 56-19 in that time. They had given up multiple goals in 5 straight before last week and have been shut out in 4/7 and 7/12.

Bolivia away from home is rarely a good bet, basically never. They have 2 road wins, both friendlies in the last few years.

Chile vs Bolivia Picks

Both usually struggle for goals and both are missing offensive players to injury in Alexis Sanchez (CHI) and Henry Vaca (BOL). Bolivia will also be out Hector Cuellar (M) and Ramiro Vaco (D) with yellow card suspensions. 

I can’t take Bolivia to win, but then Chile rarely score thenselves, so let’s bet Under.

• CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Predictions: Under 2.5 (+105)

Venezuela vs Uruguay Prediction

Venezuela vs Uruguay kicks off at 6pm EST.

Venezuela vs Uruguay Odds

• VEN +210
• DRAW +210
• URU  +150 

Head-to-Head

In qualifying for the 2022 World Cup Uruguay won 4-1 and they drew 0-0. They have drawn in 5/9 meetings and Venezuela only has 1 win between them in 12 games and that was in 2016 at the Copas.

Form

Venezuela

Got battered away to Bolivia last week 4-0.

This leaves them mid-pack in qualfiying at 2-3-2, 5th, 1 point behind 4th Brazil and 1 point above 6th Ecuador.

They went to the quarterfinals of Copa America but were upset by Canada in PKs. But they had won 3 Group Stage games and have been generally in good form at 12-6-6 in the past couple years.

Uruguay

They had 66% possession at home to Paraguay last week but only managed 1 shot on target on 11 attempts and Paraguay had 8 attempts, 2 on target themselves. Neither could find the back of the net and it ended 0-0. It was also Luis Surarez’s last game on the international stage for Uruguay.

La Celeste are still 2nd though in the table at 4-2-1 and have scored the most goals of the 10 teams with 13 in 7 games. 

In the Copa America they lost to Colombia in the semifinals and went on to beat Canada in PKs in the 3rd Place Game after a 2-2 draw. 

Overall, they’re in pretty good form with the Colombia loss their only defeat in 10 games and being 21-8-5 the past couple of years. In their past 23 games they’ve only failed to score 4 times.

Venezuela vs Uruguay Picks

Typically Uruguay may have an edge, but it’s tough to win on the road in general and they’re out 5 players who are suspended from fighting with fans at Copa America so this is a depleted side. 

Venezuela has gone 5-2 to the Under and expect this to be tight too.

• CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Predictions: Venezuela Double Chance + Under 4 (-138)

Paraguay vs Brazil Prediction

Paraguay vs Brazil kicks off at 8:30pm EST.

Paraguay vs Brazil Odds

• PAR +525
• DRAW +275
• BRA -175

Head-to-Head

Brazil just beat Paraguay 4-1 in the Copas. In the last World Cup Qualifying they won 2-0 and 4-0 and Brazil hasn’t lost to Paraguay in 6 games with 5 straight wins, while only allowing 1 goal in those 5 wins. 

Form

Paraguay

In a game that saw Paraguay only register 2 shots on target, they held Uruguay to only 1 and drew on the road 0-0 in what was Gustavo Alfaro’s first game in charge after coming over from Costa Rica.

It’s a good road point, but they still have only 1 win in qualifying at 1-3-3 sitting 7th.

They’ve been a dead-nuts Under team at 7-0 to Under 2.5, scoring just once 1, conceding only 3 and seeing their games average 0.6 GPG.

In the Copa America they lost 2-1, 4-1 and 2-1. They have just 1 win 9 and 2 wins in 13, have only scored 5 goals in those 13 games and have been shut out 8 times. But go back further and it looks even poorer with only 6 wins in 36 games.

Brazil

Brazil topped Ecuador 1-0 at home last week with Rodrygo getting the game’s lone goal on the 30’ minute. With 3 (BRA) and 2 (ECU) the game offered few shots on target.

Brazil has scored 9, allowed 7, are 3-1-3 and 4th in the table with 10 points.

Brazil had been on a good run of form after changing coaches and were 3-4-0 heading into the quarterfinals of Copa America against Uruguay before they drew 0-0 and lost in PKs. 

In their last 9 games across all comps they’ve scored 14 goals, scored in 7/9, and kept 4 clean sheets.

Prior to that stretch they had only 4 wins in 12 though. 

During qualifying their games have been tight, scoring 8, conceding 7 and seeing Under bets go 4-2.

Paraguay vs Brazil Picks

I’ve talked about the rarity of road wins, but this does look like a spot where it could happen. Brazil has scored more than 1 goal just 1 time in their last 6 games, but that was a 4-1 win vs this Paraguay side. But then Paraguay have allowed only 3 goals during qualifying. Brazil to win and Under 5 would be -143 odds or for better odds bet the Under 4.

• CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Predictions: Brazil to Win and Under 4 (+100)