The Mexican Liga MX Apertura returned last week after Leagues Cup and this weekend moves into Matchday 6.
This week sees 3 games on Friday, 4 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday from August 30 – September 1. Let’s get into this week’s Liga MX predictions and picks and parlays.
Club Tijuana vs Leon Prediction
Tijuana’s games have seen the most average GPM at 3.7. Leon’s are much lower at 2.6 as they’ve scored only 5 times and given up 8.
Leon’s seen 4 straight draws in Liga MX at 1-1, 1-1, 2-2 and 0-0.
Overall they’ve not won in 8 games in all comps including Leagues Cup and last season and BTTS is 7-1 in that time.
Tijuana lost both Leagues Cup games as well and have just 1 win in 6 overall matches but have scored 5 times in their last 2 games and in 14/17. Their 9.9 xG is tops in Mexico, granted they’ve played an 1 more game compared to some teams.
At 3-2-1, Xolos are 6th, while Leon are 1 of 4 teams still winless at 0-4-1 (13th).
Recent meetings have been tight at 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-2 and 1-1. A road team has not won in 8 meetings and a home team has scored in 10 of the past 11.
- Liga MX Predictions: Tijuana to score
Chivas Guadalajara vs Juarez Prediction
6th Chivas hosts 17th Juarez.
Chivas haven’t lost to Juarez in 6 meetings with scores of 2-1, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 3-1, 2-2 and 2-1.
That 0-0 draw is the only time in 14 meetings they haven’t scored.
Everyone scores on Juarez, as they’ve conceded in 48/51 overall matches in all comps.
They did get 2 wins in Leagues Cup but 1 came in PKs before going out in the Round of 32 to Colorado 3-2. Back in Mexico last week they lost 3-0 away to Necaxa and now have just 5 wins in 32 Liga MX games.
A defense that was poor all season has continued this year giving up multiple goals in all 5 of their league games.
Chivas lost both Leagues Cup games but in PKs so have basically drawn three games in a row after drawing Tigres 1-1 last week. The Leagues Cup games were 2-2 and 1-1.
On one hand they have only 2 wins in 10, on the other hands they have only 2 regulation losses in 19.
Chivas to win or to score in a parlay.
- Liga MX Predictions: Chivas to score
Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction
2nd Monterrey hosts 3rd Toluca with the two separated by just 2 points.
The last 2 meetings have been low-scoring at 0-0 and 1-0 Toluca but I think we see some goals this team.
Monterrey lost both Leagues Cup games but 1 came in PKs, then back in Mexico won 2-1 and drew 2-2 last weekend. Between Liga MX and LEC they’ve scored in 6/8 but conceded in 6/8 as well.
Toluca lost 2-1 to Colorado in the Round of 16 at the LEC and came back to Mexico with a 2-1 win last week. Paulinho got his 4th goal in the league leaving him tied for the scoring lead. Combine the two competitions and they’re 6-2-1 and have scored in each of the past 8.
In reverse order the goal totals in their games have been 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 5 and 0.
Both teams to score or simply Over 1.5 for me.
- Liga MX Predictions: Both Teams to Score
- Parlay Picks: TIJ to score / CHI to score / MON vs TOL btts (+114)
Cruz Azul vs Club America Prediction
If not Monterrey vs Toluca, then this looks like the top match of the weekend in a rematch of the Clausura Final and it could be tight between 1st Cruz Azul at 4-1-0 and usual contender Club America, who’s been struggling at 2-0-3 in 12th.
America’s scored 6 and allowed 6 in 5 games but are 3-2 to the Over.
Cruz Azul have scored 11 but conceded just 1, and are 3-2 to the Under.
Head-to-head they just played twice in May and it was 1-1 and 1-0 America. In February it was 1-0 America as well.
I’d lean to the Under.
- Liga MX Predictions: Under 2.5 (-125)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
