We’re into Leg 2 of the Round of 16 of the CONMEBOL Libertadores tournament with 3 games on Tuesday, 3 on Wednesday and 2 on Thursday.
This is definitely a lower-scoring tournament. If we look at the Group Stage, only three teams played to more Over 2.5 totals than Unders. Two went 4-2 and only one went 5-1. Seven teams were an even 3-3, two were 2-4 and four went 1-5.
In Leg 1 of the Round of 16 last week Under 2.5 went 5-3. There were only 2 draws, but also 2 games that were 1-0.
With some teams now knowing they need to win or attack, perhaps it’s a bit higher scoring but I still expect many close games. So let’s get into this week’s CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions.
Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction
Gremio won 2-1 in Leg 1. All the goals came late with Fluminense scoring in the 58′, then Gremio tying on a PK in the 74’ and scoring again in the 77’. They did take a red soon after and Rodrigo Ely will miss Leg 2.
- Gremio – 15th in Brazil Serie A
- Fluminense – 18th in Brazil Serie A
Gremio has owned this matchup of late winning 2-1 last week, 1-0 in June, 3-2 in December and each of the last 8.
Gremio lost 2-0 this weekend but have only 3 losses (1 in PKs) in their last 11. Their games have been tight going 5-2 to the Under 2.5.
Fluminense drew 0-0 this weekend, have 1 win in 6, have allowed multiple goals in 3/4, have 4 wins in 9, none in 4, and those are their only 4 wins in 19 games.
Fluminense were 3-3 to O/Us in the Group Stage but Gremio was 5-1 to the Under, so Leg 1’s Over was rare for Gremio.
Gremio has owned this opponent but in road Brazil Serie A games, they have only 2 wins in 10, conceding in 9/10. This is a different competition, but a familiar type of opponent.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Both Teams to Score (+120)
Atletico Mineiro vs San Lorenzo Prediction
Mineiro had 71% possession but it was San Lorenzo who scored early in the 17’ and held that lead until Mineiro tied it in the 58’ and the game ending 1-1. San Lorenzo only managed 2 shots on target at home, so could be hard-pressed to do much better on the road.
- San Lorenzo – 26th in Argentina Liga Proseional
- Atletico Mineiro – 8th in Brazil Serie A
San Lorenzo is lagging down near the bottom of the Argentine league. This weekend they lost again, 3-2 to Boca Juniors. In all comps they are winless in 6, with just 5 wins in all comps in 22. The Under 2.5 has gone 7-2 of late.
Atletico Mineiro drew 1-1 this weekend, their 3rd straight draw in all comps. They have only 1 win in 6, but just 1 loss in 10 and have scored in 9/10 and 14/16. But top scorer Hulk is out injured. Their 14 goals scored in the Group Stage was tied for the most.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Atletico Mineiro win (-165)
Junior vs Colo Colo Prediction
Colo Colo controlled this game with 59%, 16 shots to 5 and 5 shots on target to just 1 for Junior, scoring once for a 1-0 win and that goal came late in the 76’ minute.
- Colo Colo – 2nd in Chile Primer Division
- Junior – 7th in Colombia Categoria Primera A
Colo Colo have been rolling. They won 2-0 this weekend and are undefeated in 10 with only 1 loss in 16 and 2 losses in 21. Just twice in 16 games have they not scored and they’ve scored multiple goals in 6/10, while keeping clean sheets in 3 straight.
Junior won 2-1 this weekend. On the one hand they have just 1 win in 4 and 3 in 11, on the other hand they have just 3 losses in 18. Their trend has been Unders with Under 2.5 going 13-5
This could be tight. Under 2.5 went 5-1 in the Group Stage for Colo Colo and also 5-1 for Junior. Both saw their past 6 go Under in the tournament after Leg 1.
This certainly could be another Under for both (-211) but a draw would also do for Colo Colo (+220). They’ve been nearly unbeatable of late so perhaps the double chance at -138 is the best bet. After all these teams only combined for 3 wins together in the Group Stage.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Colo Colo double chance (-138)
The Strongest vs Penarol Prediction
Penarol were big home favorites in Uruguay in Leg 1 and didn’t disappoint scoring early and often in a 4-0 route. They had 61% possession, the edge in shots, 20-4 and shots on target 10-0.
- Penarol – 11th Uruguay Primera Division (but just played first game this weekend)
- The Strongest – 2nd in Bolivia Primera Division (Clausura)
Penarol drew 0-0 in Uruguay this weekend and now has only 2 losses in 20 in all comps and just 1 in regulation. Only twice in 26 games have they not scored.
The Strongest had won 2-1 and 5-0 in recent games, but are now off 4-0 and 2-0 (this weekend) losses. But they have only 4 losses in 15 and 5 losses in 21.
The Strongest is awful in this tournament away from La Paz, but at home they’ve been historically good with only 1 loss in 13 and 4 in 37 over the many years.
At home in the Libertadores they’ve scored in 13 straight and 42/43.
They’ll need a whole lot more than 1 goal here though to reverse Leg 1’s deficit.
Oddsmakers are expecting a Bolivian win at -250 especially with Penarol not needing to win. Penarol did score 12 goals in 6 Group Stage games and held The Strongest to 0 shots on target last game. So even with less pressure on them should at least score.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-125)
River Plate vs Talleres Cordoba Prediction
Cordoba took a red card in the 60’ and River Plate scored late in the 86’ to secure the 1-0 win. There was little offense in this game with River only having 3 shots on target and Cordoba 1.
- CA Talleres de Cordoba – 5th in Argentina Liga Profesional
- River Plate – 9th in Argentina Liga Profesional
In this all-Argentina matchup they drew 2-2 in March and River Plate won 1-0 in October in recent meetings. River Plate has just 2 wins in 7 meetings now.
Cordoba had 4 straight 1-1 draws before losing to River 1-0 last week and then winning in the league 2-1 this weekend. That’s their only win in 7 games and the Under is 5-1.
River Plate drew 1-1 this weekend giving them many draws as well with 3/4. They’re undefeated in 5 with only 1 loss in 9, scoring in 8/9 as well.
River Plate tied for the fewest goals allowed in the Group Stage and this should be tight too.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Under 2.5 (-145)
Palmeiras vs Botafogo Prediction
The scoring came rapid-fire in the first-half with Botafogo scoring in the 22, Palmeiras levelling in the 33’ and Botafogo making in 2-1 in the 39’. And that was it. Each team had just 3 shots on target.
- Botafogo – 1st in Brazil Serie A
- Palmeiras – 3rd in Brazil Serie A
Other recent meetings have seen Botafogo win 1-0 in July and Palmeiras 4-3 in November.
After 2 losses, Botafogo now has 2-1 and then a 4-1 win this weekend. They’re 3-2-3 in 8 but have only 3 losses in 15 and 4 in 25. They’ve not kept any clean sheets in those past 8 games. But have scored in 18/20.
Palmeiras won 2-1 this weekend but are now 2-2-4 in 8, but just 1 loss in 4. They’ve only kept 1 clean sheet in 8 games, but have scored in 5 straight, making BTTS 4-1 of late.
Neither are keeping many clean sheets and Palmeiras, at home need to attack and tied for the most goals scored during the Group Stage.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Both Teams to Score (+105)
Sao Paulo vs Nacional Prediction
Nacional, with only 35% possession, had 14 shot attempts, but just 2 on target and 0 goals. Sao Paulo had all the possession, but 2 shot attempts, 0 on target and 0 goals. 0-0 in Leg 1.
- Nacional De Football – 5th in Uruguay Primera Division (but only 1 game in)
- Sao Paulo – 6th in Brazil Serie A
Nacional drew 3-3 with River Plate (Uru version) this weekend so are now 15-4-3 in their last 22 scoring in 20/22 and keeping clean sheets in 4/6. Prior to that 3-3, they had allowed just 3 goals in 8 games.
Sao Paulo lost 2-1 in the league this weekend, their first loss in 5 and the first goals they had allowed in that time as well. Overall they have just 3 losses in 15, clean sheets in 5/6, but have only scored 5 goals in 7 games and more than 1 goal only once in 7.
Sao Paolo allowed the joint-fewest goals (3) in the Group Stage and this should again be tight and low-scoring. Bet the draw (+260) or Under 2.5 (-160).
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Under 2.5 (-160)
Bolivar vs Flamengo Prediction
Flamengo controlled this game in Brazil in Leg 1 with 64% possession, 19 shots, 6 on target and 2 goals. While Bolivar had 6 attempts and just 1 on target in a 2-0 loss.
- Flamengo – 4th in Brazil Serie A
- Bolivar – 1st in Bolivia Primera Division (Clausura)
In their Group Stage games Bolivar won 2-1 in Bolivia in April and Flamengo won 4-0 in Brazil in May. Then Flamengo won in Brazil again in Leg 1.
Bolivar was off this weekend so should be rested but home in Bolivia.
Much like The Strongest, they’ve been much better at home in this tournament. In 26 road Libertadores games they have 5 wins. Back in La Paz they have only 4 losses in 32 and have scored in 32/33.
Overall, they’re 10-4-4 in 18 and have scored in 14/18.
After winning last week, Flamengo lost 4-1 to Botafogo this weekend. Last week’s win over Bolivar is their only win in 5 games. On the road they’ve lost 3 straight and away in the Libertadores tournament they’ve not won any of their past 7, conceding in all 7, where BTTS is 6-1.
Flamengo may be a bit stronger, but Bolivar always plays well at home. We just saw Bolivar win 2-1 in Bolivia in the Group Stage and another game with goals from both could be in the cards.
Bolivar allowed the most goals (9) of any team that advanced from the Group Stage and their games saw the highest average goals at 3.7 and they were the highest “Over” team at 5-1. Those trends continued in Leg 1 last week.
I’d say BTTS (-145), Over 2.5 (-134) or combine the two for +105 odds.
- CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-145)
Parlay Options
- Junior vs Colo Colo – Under 3.5
- River Plate vs Cordoba – Under 3.5
- Sao Paulo vs Nacional – Under 3.5
- -134
- The Strongest vs Penarol – Over 1.5
- Palmeiras vs Botafogo – Over 1.5
- Bolivar vs Flamengo – Over 1.5
- +105
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
