The Bronze Medal Game kicks off on Friday, August 9 at 9am EST between Spain and Germany in Women’s Olympic Soccer.
Spain vs Germany Odds
- SPA -112
- DRAW +250
- GER +280
- SPA to adv -225
- GER to adv +162
- Over 2.5 -138
- Under 2.5 +107
- BTTS Yes -150
- BTTS No +110
Spain Preview
Spain’s path to the semis saw them beat Japan 2-1, Nigeria 1-0 and Brazil 2-1 in the group stage.
In the quarterfinals, Colombia jumped out to a surprising 2-0 lead but Spain would claw back with goals from Jenni Hermosa and Irene Parades in the 79’ and then deep into stoppage time in the 97’. The game went to PKs where Colombia missed 2 shots and Spain advanced.
In the semis, Spain had a rematch with Brazil who was without the suspended Marta.
An own goal for Spain in the 6’ minute was a precursor for what was to come as Brazil went up 2-0 by half and 3-0 in the 77’ before Spain got their first in the 85’ from Paralluelo. That kept things interesting but Brazil added a 4th soon after and a 2nd by Parralluelo in the 102’ was too little too late in the 4-2 Brazil win.
Despite the 77% possession for La Roja, 26 shots and 11 on target, Brazil scored on 4 of their 7 shots and ripped apart a Spanish defense that was often caught out of position or attacking upfield.
Despite the loss, in 2024 Spain is now 11-0-2 outscoring opponents 32-9 in all comps. Go further back and they’ve lost just 5 times in 40 games being 34-1-5.
In their last 16 games, they’ve scored multiple goals in 14 of them.
The trend of Spain scoring in the 2nd half continued with both goals coming late in the game. Their goals overall have been scored in the following minutes:
- 22, 74
- 85
- 68, 107
- 79, 97
- 85, 102
So each of their last 8 goals have been scored in the 68’ minute or later.
Germany Preview
Germany started the Olympics with a 3-0 win over Australia, then fell 4-1 to USA before rebounding with a 4-1 win themselves over Zambia.
Germany met Canada in the quarters and the first half was all level at 0-0 and the game remained 0-0 after regulation and both teams continued to come close to scoring in extra time but still we saw no goals. So it was off to PKs where Germany won 4-2.
So it was a rematch with USA in the semis and Germany were much improved pushing the game to extra-time in a 0-0 draw.
But it was Sophia Smith’s 95’ minute goal early in the first half of extra-time that proved to be the winner.
Germany did play the game without captain Alexandra Popp (illness) and forward Lea Schuller (knee inflammation) which certainly depleted an offense already missing midfielder Lena Oberdorf.
Schuller leads Germany with 3 goals this tournament so will be a big miss if she’s out again.
Go back further and Germany has won 9/12 outscoring opponents 27-14 in that time.
They have conceded in 7/11 so BTTS bets are 7-4 in regulation.
The Over 2.5 has gone 9-2 in recent Germany games but their last 2 have gone Under.
In their past 18 games they have just 4 losses (USA, USA, Iceland, France) and have scored in 14/18.
Spain vs Germany Head-to-Head
The last meeting between these teams was in the 2022 Euros where Germany won 2-0.
And other results have also been low-scoring and gone the way of the Germans or been drawn.
It was 1-1 draw in the 2022 Arnold Clark Cup.
Germany won 1-0 in the 2019 World Cup, they 0-0 in a 2018 friendly, Germany won 5-0 in 2012 and they drew 2-2 in the 2011.
So in 6 all-time meetings Spain has not beaten Germany but we are going back over many years and Spain have vastly improved in that time.
Spain vs Germany Prediction
These knockout round games have all been close with 4/6 going to extra-time and the Under going 4-2.
The 2 Overs were both of Spain’s games.
And if Germany can get back Popp and Schuller for Friday, this could be another Over or BTTS.
Without them, I’ll back Spain to win in regulation.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Prediction: Spain moneyline (-112)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
