The Copa America Semifinals kick off on Tuesday, July 9 at 8 pm EST.
Let’s break down the odds, form and Argentina vs Canada prediction for this game.
Argentina vs Canada Odds
- ARG -275
- DRAW +375
- CAN +850
- ARG to adv -500
- CAN to adv +350
Argentina Preview
Argentina got here from the following path.
- MD1: 2-0 win vs Canada
- MD2: 1-0 win vs Chile
- MD3: 2-0 win vs Peru
- QF: 1-1 (4-2 PK) win vs Ecuador
In the quarterfinals, Ecuador started ok and had some chances. But a Messi corner to the close post, flicked on by Alexis Mac Allister to Lisandro Martinez to score put Argentina up 1-0 in the 35’ minute.
Ecuador had a chance to tie later on but there was a missed PK by Enner Valencia, but Ecuador would tie later in the final minutes from Kevin Rodriguez in the 91’.
The game went on to PKs, which saw Messi missing, but the next 4 Argentina don’t, Emi Martinez makes 2 saves, and Argentina wins 4-2 on penalites.
Final Stats
- Poss: 51% ARG
- Shots: 9-8 ECU
- SOT: 2-2
- Corners: 5-2 ECU
Canada Preview
Here’s Canada’a path to the Copa America semifinals.
- MD1: 2-0 loss vs Argentina
- MD2: 1-0 win vs Peru (PER red card)
- MD3: 0-0 draw vs Chile (CHI red card)
- QF: 1-1 (4-3 PK) win vs Venezuela
It was two unlikely opponents met here in the quarters between Canada and Venezuela but it was the underdogs Canada who struck early and first in just the 13’ minute from Jacob Shaffelburg.
This game was wild and end-to-end action where Canada had way more chances but just couldn’t get a second. And if you leave a team hanging around long enough it often comes back to bite you and it did with Salomon Rondon chipping the ball over Maxime Crepeau on a break in the 64’.
Now Crepeau should not have been out that far. The Venezuelan keeper should have also seen yellow for delaying a throw-in before the previous play though.
And really the officiating was questionable all game with Canada getting way more fouls and Venezuela not seeing yellows for multiple questionable fouls.
But the fouls were 13-7 against Canada. And yellow cards 2-1 against Canada. Venezuela got their first and only yellow when the game was about to end in the 94’ and it was blatant.
With the game 1-1 it went to PKs and both teams had 2 players miss so we went to sudden death.
It was Ismael Kone in the 6th round who slots it home for the win, and it ends 4-3 Canada in PKs.
Final Stats
Poss: 56% VEN
- Shots: 16-16
- SOT: 7-3 CAN
- Corners: 7-3 VEN
Argentina vs Canada Head-to-Head
Obviously these teams just met on Matchday 1 with Argentina winning 2-0 with goals from Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez in the 49’ and 88’ minutes.
Argentina had 65% possession, the edge in shots 19-10, shots on target 9-2 and corners 7-4.
Canada held their own though with plenty of offensive chances but a lack of finishing saw them held off the scoresheet. But defensively they gave up a ton too and if not for a few big Maxime Crepeau saves and some better finishing from Argentina too, the scoreline could have been worse. Still, holding the world’s best team to just 1 goal until the 88-minute is an impressive feat for the Canadians.
The only other semi-recent meeting was a 5-0 Argentina win in a friendly in 2010.
Argentina Stats
- Have just 2 losses in 61 games.
- Outscored opponents 18-3 in last 9 games, all wins, but the last went to extra-time
- Only allowed 8 shots on target against this tournament
- The Under is a perfect 4-0 in Argentina’s Copa America games
Canada Stats
- Scored just 2 goals in last 6 games and just 2 wins in 6, one needed PKs
- But kept clean sheets in 3/5 and 4/7
- In fact, there’s been a clean sheet in Canada’s games in 6/7 for or against them
- The Under 2.5 is 5-0 and 6-1
Argentina vs Canada Prediction
I’m Canadian and it’s a great story for Canada to be this far. But look at the final four. Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay and Canada. One of these things are not like the other. Canada has been getting no help from the refs this tournament and that’s unlikely to change vs the World Champs in a stadium packed with Messi jerseys.
Sadly, I have to pick an Argentina win in the Argentina vs Canada prediction but that won’t get you great odds so let’s look at some options for your Copa America picks in this game.
- ARG to win and under 3 (+190)
- ARG to win and under 4 (-115)
Both teams have played to a ton of Unders, in fact all Unders this tournament. But that first game between them could have easily seen more than 2 goals if both had better finishing.
So let’s go Argentina to win and Under 4 goals for -115 in the Copa America odds.
Want to improve that? You could add Argentina to have the most shots to bump it to +105 or maybe Lautaro Martinez to have 1-2 shots. Betting him to have 1 shot bumps it to -105 at Bet365’s SGP builder.
He has 4 goals and 10 shots this tournament.
- Argentina vs Canada Prediction: Argentina to win and Under 4 goals (-115) at Bet365.
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
