With the international break here, we have just 4 games all on Saturday for MLS Week 19 but we’ve still made our top leans, best bets and MLS predictions for the weekend here.
Despite a quiet week of games, we’ve seen Atlanta coach Gonzalo Pineda fired, Columbus GM/President Tim Bezbatchenko step down for other opportunities and San Diego announcing the signing up Chucky Lozano from PSV for their inaugural season next year.
Now on to this weekend’s games and keep in mind most teams are dealing with several absentees as players have been called up for their national teams.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
Call-ups:
NE: Esmir Bajraktarevic, Noel Buck, Henrich Ravas
NYRB: Emil Forsberg, Lewis Morgan, John Tolkin, Carlos Coronel, Noah Eile
New England got a win last week, 2-1 in Nashville, but it’s just their 3rd on the season and they’re still the Wooden Spoon leaders at 3-1-10 with just 10 points. They’ve also allowed a goal in all but 2 games, 1-0 wins over Chicago and Charlotte.
New York won at home in a tight 1-0 over Orlando. They’re 4th in the East, have wins in 4/5, just 2 losses in 12 and have scored in 13/16 and in 8 straight.
When these teams met on May 11 it was 4-2 Bulls, but it was just 2-1 NY until goals in the 84’, 90’ and 93’ minutes.
The home team has won each of the last 5 meetings and the Revs have just 1 win in that time.
New York has been so-so on the raod. They’re 3-3-3 but have been outscored 17-14 and have conceded in 8 straight.
And with several players away, and some defensive players away this could be a good spot for the Revs to build on last week’s win. So I would want to look to some sort of bet on New England as hard as that may be. It could be a draw or New England draw no bet as a single bet, or New England double chance or to score as part of a parlay.
- MLS Predictions: Draw no bet (+105)
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Minnesota United vs FC Dallas Prediction
Call-ups:
MIN: Robin Lod, Tani Oluwaseyi, Dayne St. Clair, Kervin Arriaga, Alejandro Bran, Carlos Harvey, Teemu Pukki, Joseph Rosales, Zarek Valentin (18 of 27 goals will be out this week)
DAL: No major losses to call-ups
It’s 3rd Minnesota hosting 12th Dallas.
After losing 2-0 to LAFC, the Loons got back on track with a 3-1 win over SKC last weekend, and that was 3-0 until late.
That makes them 5-2-1 in their past 8. The win saw them return to scoring 2+ goals in 7/8 games now and improve their overall scoring record to scoring in 13/15. The two they didn’t were on the road.
At home they’ve scored in 11 straight MLS games going back to last season, and in 20/21.
Recent home scorelines have read 3-1 win, 2-1 win, 2-2, 2-1 win, 2-1 loss and 1-1, so it’s been multiple Loons goals and BTTS bets hitting with regularity.
Dallas’ last game came vs LAFC and they kept it close, 1-0, but the score could have been worse. LAFC had 19 shots and 9 on target.
While FCD hadn’t lost in 5 games, they’re now winless in 3, losing 1-0, 3-1 and drawing 3-3.
Being 0-2-6 and outscored 14-6 in their road MLS games, may make that a tough streak to end in Minnesota.
Last year it was 0-0 and 1-0 Minnesota.
No matter the winner, there could easily be 2 goals in this game. All 15 Minnesota games have seen 2+, while 12/15 Dallas games have seen 2+ as well.
Tany and Lod have been carrying the load for Minnesota and are in great form with 7 and 5 goals. Tany has even grabbed the starting striker spot away from Teemu Pukki. But each but them being away is a big blow to the Loons’ offense.
If everyone was here for Minnesota I’d say Loons win for the soccer picks, but with some many absentees and Dallas struggling for most of the year, this may not be as exciting so I’d look to the Under.
- MLS Predictions: Under 2.5 (+120)
Sporting Kansas City vs Seattle Sounders Prediction
Call-ups:
SKC: No call-ups at all
SEA: Nouhou Tolo
14th SKC hosts 10th Seattle here in the Western Conference.
Oddly road teams have won 6 of the past 8 meetings between these teams including both last year — Seattle 4-1 and SKC 2-1
SKC aren’t winning anywhere this season at 2-5-9 and 28th in the league
They lost last week in Minnesota 3-1 and have 0 wins in their last 10 MLS games, with only 2 USOC wins breaking that up.
What’s even worse is the fact they’ve allowed multiple goals in 5 straight and in 9 of those 10. Overall, they’ve given up a goal or more in 15/16 but have at least scored in 14/16.
Seattle continues to slowly round into form, they drew one of the hottest teams, RSL, 1-1 in their last game and will be fresh having been off last weekend.
Include the USOC and Seattle is 5-3-1 in their past 9, only losing away to RSL. No shame there. That’s also only the 2nd time in 10 games they haven’t scored.
The way SKC games have been this could be another BTTS game.
- MLS Predictions: BTTS (-145)
St. Louis City SC vs Portland Timbers Prediction
Call-ups:
STL: Kyle Hiebert
POR: Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, Miguel Araujo
Any game involving the Timbers makes my eyes go wide with the anticipation of goals when making MLS predictions. They drew Houston 2-2 last week and have seen the 2nd most BTTS bets cash (SKC) this season at 82%.
St. Louis is a bit lower, but after a 3-3 draw in Miami have seen 67% of games cash BTTS bets.
Portland games average 3.8 GPM and St. Louis’ average 3.2.
Portland is 14-3 to Over 2.5, 16-1 to Over 1.5 and St. Louis is 9-6 to Over 2.5 and 12-3 to Over 1.5.
Portland shut out Austin 2-0 in Matchday 17 action, but that their only clean sheet on the season and they’ve given up 2+ goals in 11/13 and 13/17 overall. But their 32 GF are 3rd best overall only behind RSL’s 36 and Miami’s 42.
A run of 9 winless has improved as they’re 3-1-1 in their past 5.
Back to St Louis, a 3-3 road draw with Miami is impressive but it’s still 0 wins in 4 for City and they’ve given up 3, 2, 3, 2 and 1 goals in recent games and they have 1 win 7 and 2 in 13.
But in home MLS games they’ve scored in 21/26 all-time matches and in 7/9 in all comps counting Champions Cup this season.
Last year both teams won 2-1 on the road and that looks like a likely scoreline for someone this time around too.
You can never trust Portland to play good defense and they’re missing key defensive players this week, but still have their offensive players to call on. But are also out Diego Chara who is suspended. They’re rarely a good bet without him.
- MLS Predictions: BTTS & over 2.5 (-138)
I’ve touched on potential individual bets for each game, but let’s make 1 MLS parlay from Saturday and include:
- MLS Parlay Picks: STL vs POR btts and over 2.5 / SKC vs SEA over 1.5 (+115)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
