The Champions League Final kicks off on Saturday, June 1 at 3 pm EST at Wembley Stadium in England. Let’s get into the odds, form, head-to-head stats and Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid picks and Champions League predictions.
Recapping the tournament for these two teams so far see Dortmund at 7-3-2, having scored in each of the last 10 games, with the Under 2.5 going 9-3.
Dortmund played two tight games vs PSG in semis winning 1-0 each leg, though PSG did hit the woodwork 6 times in the two semis.
For Real Madrid, since losing in the final last year to Man City they have not lost in the UCL at 9-3-0, scoring in each of those games, and multiple goals in 8/12. They have been giving up some goals with BTTS bets going 5-0 of late and 9-3 overall.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Odds
Here are the full Champions League odds for Saturday’s final.
- DOR +375
- DRAW +333
- RM -163
- DOR to lift trophy +250
- RM to lift trophy -334
- Over 2.5 -150
- Under 2.5 +120
- BTTS Yes -134
- BTTS No +100
Dortmund vs Real Madrid Head-to Head
The teams have met many times but not since the 2017 UCL where Madrid won 3-1 and 3-2.
Champions League Scoring Props
The top players favored to score are dominated by Madrid players with no fewer than 6 from Los Blancos showing up first in the odds. The top 5 favorites are:
- Vinicius Jr (+150)
- Rodrygo (+150)
- Jude Bellingham (+175)
- Mato Joselu (+175)
- Arda Guler (+210)
The first Dortmund players listed are Niclas Fullkrug and Sebastian Haller at +375 odds each.
The leaders in UCL scoring for each team are Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo and Joselu with 5 each for Madrid.
For Dortmund, it’s Fullkrug with 3, followed by Marco Reus, Juliann Brandt, and Karim Adeyemi with 2 each.
Borussia Dortmund Form
Dortmund finished 5th in the Bundesliga at 18-9-7, their games averaged 3.3 GPM and they were 21-13 to Over 2.5 totals. There were 2+ goals in 29/34 games. In their last 27 games in all comps they have just 5 losses.
Dortmund closed the season with wins in 4/5 with 1 loss coming days after advancing from the semifinals of the UCL, which can be excused.
In their last 20 games, only twice have they not scored.
Real Madrid Form
Real Madrid ran away with the La Liga title 10 points clear of Barcelona. They were 29-8-1, scoring 87 goals and conceding just 26.
Madrid, with the title already locked up ended the La Liga season with 4-4 and 0-0 draws. But this team rarely loses, with just 1 loss in 47 games and that was in extra-time to Atleti in the Copa del Rey.
Go back further and it’s just 2 losses (again to Atleti) in 59 games.
In those 59 games they’ve scored in 57, and one of which where they didn’t was last game in a meaningless game for them.
Before that they had scored 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3 and 2 goals.
Champions League Predictions
Only the finals lost last year have seen Real Madrid not score in their past 30 UCL games.
This team just have so many players who can score, with Joselu being the unlikely hero last round scoring twice.
Dortmund will obviously be motivated in their first UCL final since 2013, and looking to win for the first time since 1997, while also being motivated in Marco Reus’ last game. But it’s also Toni Kroos’ last game for Madrid.
Past UCL Finals Scores
Recent Champions League finals have finished 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0, including a 1-0 win by Madrid over Liverpool. Before that, BTTS had gone 8-0, but the recent trend has been lower-scoring games and in the last 16 finals Under 2.5 has gone 11-5.
When we look into the best Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions, and soccer picks I see a few options.
- Real Madrid win (-163)
- Real Madrid win and over 1.5 Madrid goals (-120)
- Real Madrid win and under 6 (-143)
- Real Madrid win and under 5 (-105)
You could look to add corners into a same-game parlay if you think Dortmund will be sitting back, absorbing pressure and hoping to strike on the counter. Then Madrid corner kicks could help you pump up the price of a Madrid win.
- Real Madrid win and over 3 corners (-105)
- Real Madrid win and over 4 corners (+137)
But then you can also consider that in the Knockout Rounds Madrid had corners totals of 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, and 8. However, overall, Madrid has won 4+ corners in 9/12 UCL games when counting the Group Stage.
There is some question in goal for Madrid with backup Andriy Lunin having the flu this week and Thibault Courtois only recently coming back from injury, so that could be something to monitor leading up to the game.
But overall, Real Madrid is the more talented and experienced team here and I expect them to win in my Dortmund vs Real Madrid prediction and lift their 15th trophy in the tournament. If you add in Under 5 goals into an SGP, you can get a little better price of -105 in the Champions League Final odds.
- Champions League Prediction: Real Madrid win and Under 5 (-105)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
