MLS Picks & Parlays – MLS Matchday 17 Predictions

There are 12 games on Wednesday for this week’s MLS Matchday 17 action. But no NYCFC, San Jose Columbus, St. Louis or New England. Without further ado, let’s break down Wednesday’s soccer picks and best MLS predictions.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Prediction

1st versus 12th here. Usually, this would look like maybe the game of the week.

But Atlanta is not the same team they used to be. Giorgos Giakoumakis missed out on the weekend with a hamstring injury and Thiago Almada subbed on in the second half coming back from injury and they lost 1-0 at home to LAFC. It was close and was 0-0 until Brad Guzan took a red card and LAFC scored on the ensuing free kick. Guzan will obviously miss out this week and defender Stian Gregersen was subbed out late on Saturday with injury.

Atlanta has just 2 wins in 11 and both came versus USL sides in the USOC. So it’s 0-3-5 in their past 8 in MLS. Away from home they’re 0-4-5 in their past 9 road MLS games.

Miami went across the continent and without Messi, Busquets and Suarez and still beat Vancouver 2-1. 

They’re top of the Supporters’ Shield race and 7-1-0 in their past 8 outscoring opponents 22-9.

Home teams won all 3 last season, Miami 2-1 and Atlanta 5-2 in MLS, and Miami 4-0 in Leagues Cup. The last 6 meetings have all seen 2+, in 5/6 there were 3+. 

Atlanta is in awful form, Miami is home and should welcome back a fully rested Messi, Busquets and Suarez and should get the win.

• MLS Predictions: Miami win

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FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC Prediction

Cincinnati just went to Toronto and hung 4 on TFC, to extend their winning streak to 7 games, leaving them 1 point back of Miami in the Supporters’ Shield. They did need stoppage time for the winner and Toronto had their chances late to win or tie themselves.  The 7 straight wins are tied for the 2nd longest (9) in the post-shootout era.

Cincy has outscored opponents 15-7 in this current winning streak.

Nashville has just 1 loss in 6 games, but have only 2 wins in 10 and only 3 wins in 15 across all comps. They’re off back-to-back draws of 0-0 last week in Montreal and 1-1 before that home to Atlanta. 

Nashville’s defense has improved with clean sheets in 2/3 games but those are their only 2 in 15 games and versu a struggling Montreal team and when Toronto had half their team suspended.

Despite both teams being known for better defense than offense, we have seen goals in past meetings in their short history: 2-2, 3-0, 6-3, 1-1 and then last year 1-0 and 3-1 CIncinnati in MLS and then Nashville winning on PKs after a 1-1 draw in the Leagues Cup.

Cincy was already good but the addition of Kevin Kelsy has clearly helped. I saw this stat on the MLS website from Matt Doyle, that in the last 5 games, their open play shots on target per 90 and xG and xG per shot have all improved in the last 5 games.

But last week it was also Luca Orellano stepping up with 2 goals and being named Player of the Matchday.

They likely win at home here, though Nashville have been a bit improved of late, but certainly Cincinnati should score.

• MLS Predictions: Cincinnati to score
• Parlay Picks: MIA to win / CIN to score (-145)

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC Prediction

The Red Bulls feel like they’ve had the better start to the year, but these teams are basically neck and neck, New York at 5th, 6-5-3 and 23 points and Charlotte at 7th, 6-4-5 and 22 points.

Charlotte has the better defense allowing just 13 goals, compared to New York’s 21. The Crown are undefeated in 5 games, but have drawn their past two games 0-0. They’ve kept 5 straight clean sheets, but have only scored 4 goals in those 5 games.

Also, 4/5 were at home. And the only road game in the past 5 was versus Chicago (1-0), who are one of the league’s worst teams right now. 

New York has the better offense scoring 25 to Charlotte’s just 14. The Red Bulls come in fresh having been off this weekend. They lost their last game and have just 2 wins in 7 but have scored in 9/10 and the 1 they didn’t they took a red card. 

Last year there was a 1-1 draw, 2-2 draw and 5-2 NY win. 

New York hasn’t been in top form and are missing defender Sean Nealis who got red carded, Charlotte have been air-tight defensively, but I think a fresh Red Bulls team at home can get at least 1.

The Crown are piling up clean sheets but on the road, they have just 2 in 17 road MLS games and both versus the Fire. 

• MLS Predictions: NYRB to score

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Prediction

Philly drew 0-0 away to Charlotte and last week.

Toronto lost at home 4-3 to Cincinnati. That’s bad defensively. But impressive offensively, especially considering Federico Bernardeshi was suspended. He’ll be back here. They almost won it though themselves with Lorenzo Insigne hitting the crossbar late on, before Cincy scored in stoppage time and then Insigne having a goal called back for offside after that Cincy goal which could have tied it.

It may be time to start accepting that Toronto can score this season. They couldn’t last season.

In 18 games in all comps, TFC has scored in 15. That includes scoring in 10/11 where the one failure came with half the team being suspended. It also includes goal totals of 3, 8 and 5 in their past 3. Granted the 8 came versus Saint-Laurent in the Canadian Championship. 

No one would have expected them to be above the Union in the table at this point.

But Philly has just 1 win 8 games. They should score. They’ve done so in 15/18 in all comps, but have conceded in 14/18.

Last year both won at home, Philly 4-2 and Toronto 3-1. And they have a history of high-scoring games with 10 straight meetings seeing 3+ goals as well as 14/15.

• MLS Predictions: Both to score

Austin FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction

Portland won for the second time in three games last week against another struggler, SKC. They have 4 wins on the year but 3 have been at home. They stopped an ugly streak of allowing 2+ goals in 10 straight games last week but still allowed a goal for the 15th straight time, or in every game this season. BTTS and Over 2.5 bets have gone 13-2 on the season.

Austin drew away to San Jose 1-1 last weekend and are 6-2-2 in their past 10 with 1 loss in 7.

There’s been lots of goals in this short head to head history. In reverse order: 2-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-0, 3-0, 3-1 and 4-1.

Usually I’d love this to be a BTTS or BTTS & Over 2.5, but Austin is solid at home at 5-2-1, winning each of their past 5 and not losing since their first road game of the year.

And Austin has clean sheets in 2 of their past 3 at Q2.

With Austin scoring multiple in 6/8 home games, Austin Over 1.5 is an option for the MLS picks here as a single bet, but to be safer in this parlay let’s just ask the Verde to score.

• MLS Predictions: Austin to score
• Parlays Picks: NY to score / PHI vs TOR both to score / AUS to score  (+122)

Sporting KC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction

Both off losses and both slumping. Vancouver is at least 7th, while SKC is 14th in the West and only above New England overall. 

The Caps lost at home to Miami’s backups last week 2-1. That makes them winless in 6 MLS games and with just 1 win in 8 (Cavalry in the Canadian Championship). The Caps scoring has dried up with just 2 goals in their past 5 in all comps too and both of those goals came from PKs.

That could improve versus SKC who lost in Portland 2-1 last week and have 0 wins in their past 8 MLS games and just 2 wins in 10, both in the USOC.

In MLS SKC has allowed a goal in 13/14, multiple in 7/8 but have at least scored in 12/14. BTTS bets have gone 12-2 and BTTS & Over 2.5 have gone 10-1 in their past 11.

The Caps are struggling to score but it’s been 11 games since SKC kept a clean sheet.

• MLS Predictions: Both teams to score

LAFC vs Minnesota United Prediction

4th LAFC hosts 2nd Minnesota here, with both on 7 wins this year.

LAFC edged past Atlanta on a free kick after a Brad Guzan red card and beat Atlanta 1-0.

There will be no Eduard Atuesta though this week who got a red card last week versus Atlanta as well.

Last week midfield tempo-setter Ilie Sanchez missed the game and could miss out again.

It’s 5 straight wins for LAFC now, with scores of 1-0, 3-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1. So also 4 straight clean sheets and they’ve scored in 12 straight games and multiple goals in 10/12.

It’s a similar story for the Loons. After drawing 3-3 in Colorado last week after being down 3-1, they’re undefeated in 6 at 4-2-0, have scored in 8 straight and multiple times in 6 straight. But defensively they’ve not been as strong conceding in 5 straight and 8/9.

LAFC are 12-2 to Over 1.5, while every Minnesota game has seen 2+ goals (13-0). Minnesota games average 3.2 GPM and LAFC’s 3.1.

In March the Loons won 2-0 at home. Last year it was 1-1 and 5-1 LA. In the 11 all-time meetings there’s never been fewer than 2 goals.

Both teams are flying and scoring, but LAFC has 4 straight clean sheets so I’ll just bet Over 1.5.

• MLS Predictions:  Over 1.5

LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas Prediction

Despite Dallas’ poor season, they’re undefeated in 5, have just 2 losses in 10 and have scored in 8 straight in all comps. Of their 4 wins in that time, 2 came vs USOC opponents and then Houston and Austin, locals rivals and they coughed up a 3-0 lead last week to draw 3-3 with RSL. 

And they have owned LA Galaxy of late, winning 4-1 and 3-1 last year and being 5-1-0 in the past 6. 

The Galaxy have just 2 losses this season, but just 1 win in 6, last week (2-1), but are out Joseph Paintsil with injury.

Still, their 27 GF are the third-most in MLS, they’ve scored 2, 2 and 4 goals in their last 3 home games and multiple goals in 8/11 home games going back to last season.

Only once in those 11 have there not been at least 2+ goals and the average goals in those games have been 4.45. So while you could justify a bet on BTTS or BTTS and Over 2.5 for your soccer picks, I’m just going to ask for there to be 2+ goals in some way, shape or form.

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: SKC vs VAN both to score / LAFC vs MIN over 1.5 / LA vs DAL over 1.5 (+100)