It’s MLS Matchday 16 this weekend with a huge 14-game Saturday card. Let’s get into the MLS predictions for this weekend, but first touch on some news from around the league.
Last week was a big week for TFC.
Federico Bernardeschi had a hat-trick last week, but his yellow card means he’s suspended this week versus Cincinnati. Toronto had 22 points all of last season and already have 22 points now. But it could be tough to improve upon that against the Shield winners Cincinnati this week who have given up the fewest goals and fewest shots on target in MLS.
Columbus has the Champions Cup finals on the horizon on June 1 and Cucho Hernandez is said to be missing out this week, so I’m steering clear of that game. Orlando’s Duncan McGuire is also injured for that game.
There was US Open Cup (USOC) action this week with Atlanta, SKC, San Jose, LAFC, Dallas and Seattle playing.
All of the Canadian teams in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver were also playing in the Canadian Championship.
Let’s get into the MLS picks and parlays for Saturday here.
Atlanta United vs LAFC Prediction
Both played in the USOC. Atlanta played the Charleston Battery and needed PKs to win 5-4 on PKs after a 0-0 draw. Their only 2 wins in their past 10 games have come in the USOC, being winless in 8 MLS games.
Atlanta will again be missing Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakomakis, so that streak may be tough to overcome here.
Even at home, Atlanta are winless in 4, somewhere they’re usually unstoppable. Atlanta has only kept 2 clean sheets in 10 games and both versus the Chicago Fire who never score.
LAFC were home to Loudon United and won 3-0. They’re on the road here where they’re just 1-1-4 in MLS. But overall they’re flying with 4 straight wins, 1 loss in 9 and goal totals of 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2 and 5 in recent games.
There aren’t tons of head-to-head meetings recently between these two, with the last game ending 0-0 in LA last June.
LAFC could win here, but certainly they should score. They’ve put the most shots on target in the league and have the highest xG.
- MLS Prediction: LAFC to score
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New England Revolution vs NYCFC Prediction
NYCFC are surging up the table, now 3rd in the East after winning the Hudson River Derby 2-1 last week. They’ve won 3 straight, 6/7 (scoring multiple goals in all 6 of those wins) and have scored in 8/9.
NYC are without the suspended James Sands this week, while New England’s Ryan Spalding took a red card last week and is out as well. But the Revs should have Dylan Borrero finally back to full strength.
The Revs have continued to struggle, losing again last week and being 2-1-9 and 29th overall with just 7 points.
There’s lots of drama in New England, with players yelling amongst each other, not shaking Caleb Porter’s hand and the season looking to be getting away from them.
NYCFC have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 games, and all I’ll ask for here is for them to score at least 1. They scored 2 versus New England this season already winning 2-0 in April. Monsef Bakrar finally got his first MLS goal last week and maybe that will be the start of more.
- MLS Predictions: NYCFC to score
FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake Prediction
It’s 12th Dallas hosting 1st RSL here. But Dallas could have some confidence knowing they won 2-1 and 3-1 last year and are 3-1-0 versus RSL in the last 4 meetings.
But Dallas is just 3-3-6 on the year and has scored just 13 goals, tied for the 3rd fewest in MLS.
But when you include some recent USOC wins, one of which this week, 2-1 over the Tampa Bay Rowdies, Dallas is 3-1-0 in their last 4 with just 1 loss in 6 in all comps. Last week they drew 1-1 in Houston in MLS. They beat Austin 2-1 the game prior. Can they beat someone not from Texas?
RSL fought back last week down 3-2 with minutes to go and won versus Colorado with goals in the 85’, 88’ and 96’ minutes. Chicho Arango added 2 more goals and leads the Golden Boot race, but they also got a brace from Andres Gomez.
Arango has now contributed to 21 of RSL’s 27 goals this season and RSL is undefeated in 10 MLS games now.
- MLS Predictions: RSL to score
- Parlays Picks: LAFC score / NYC score / RSL score (-109)
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United Prediction
It’s a top 6 matchup here as 6th Colorado hosts 2nd Minnesota.
For Minnesota, Miguel Tapias took a red card last week, but it was late and the Loons had already taken a 2-1 lead over Portland and went on to win. They’re undefeated in 5 and have scored multiple goals in each of those 5. Overall, they’ve scored in 11/12 games this season.
The Rapids lost 5-3 last week in RSL and have alternated wins and losses the last 6 games, but have scored in 9 straight and in 13/14 this season.
Minnesota won 2-1 and 3-0 last season and have won 4 of the past 5 meetings. There other trend is goals. There’s been 3+ goals in each of the last 6 game between them, as well as in 10/11.
Just look at this season and each team has seen 2+ goals in their games almost every week. Colorado going 12-2 to Over 1.5 and Minnesota 12-0.
BTTS and Over 2.5 has gone 4-0 in Minnesota games with scores of 2-1, 2-2, 2-1 and 2-1. Simply Over 2.5 has gone 6-0 as well.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction
Every Timbers game this season is basically must-watch if you like goals. The 3.9 GPM in their games is tied for the the most in the league with San Jose.
After snapping a 9-game winless run the game prior beating San Jose 4-2, Portland were back in the L column last weekend losing 2-1 in Minnesota. So it’s 1 win in 11 and now 10 straight games where they’ve allowed 2+ goals.
Not only have BTTS bets gone 12-2 in Portland games this season, but also the BTTS & Over 2.5.
Going back to the GPM stat. Who’s third? This week’s opponents in SKC whose games average 3.5 GPM.
Their form is just as poor. Also coming off of a loss, 3-2 in Austin last week, SKC has lost 4 straight, are winless in 7 and have just 2 wins on the year. They’ve given up a goal in 12/13, but have at least scored in 11/13 themselves.
That was after the weekend. They did get into the win column Tuesday beating FC Tulsa 4-0 in the USOC, though Tulsa played half the game down a man.
When these teams played in April, SKC scored 3 first-half goals, only to see Portland score 3 second-half goals and they drew 3-3. Let’s just ask for one each in this week’s MLS parlay picks.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score
- Parlay Picks: COL vs MIN btts / POR vs SKC btts (+133)
San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC Prediction
14th San Jose meets a surprising 3rd place Austin here.
Here are the scores in this short head to head history. The very first meeting in 2021 was 0-0. But then it’s been all goal-fests: 4-3, 4-0, 2-2, 3-3, and 2-2 and 1-1 last year and then a wild 4-3 Austin win in Texas this season in April. San Jose took a 2-0 lead before 3 straight Austin goals made it 3-2, the Quakes tied it 3-3 and then Austin got a late, late winner in the 101’ minute.
The Quakes propensity for both scoring and conceding continued this week in the USOC where they lost 4-3 away to Sacramento. They’ve conceded in every MLS game and in 15/16 overall games, but have scored in 13/16, with BTTS going 12-4.
San Jose is still bottom of the West and tied for the second-worst record in MLS.
Austin has back-to-back wins, wins in 4/6 and 6/9 and has scored in 10/14 games this season.
Only 1 of their 6 wins though have come on road (1-0) versus a Houston team that struggles to score.
While the Verde are 1-1-1 in their last 3 road games with 2 clean sheets, they have 1 win in 13 and 4 wins in 29 road games in all comps.
This looks like BTTS to me. Austin gives up the most shots on target defensively in MLS and San Jose is tied for the 3rd most.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Inter Miami Prediction
It’s the first-ever meeting between these teams.
Vancouver has started to fade, now winless in 4 games, with only a win over Cavalry in the CC breaking up a run of 6 other games without a win.
They were home to Cavalry again this week and lost 1-0 at home but advanced on away goals.
Just looking at MLS games and they’re winless in 5, but 4/5 have been on the road.
At home, they were shut out 0-0 versus Austin in their last home game but had scored in the previous other 5 at BC Place.
Miami are off some uncharacteristic low scoring games, 0-0 with Orlando, and a 1-0 win over DC. The win came with another injury loss, with CB Nicolas Freire going down with an ACL tear.
But Miami is 6-1-0 in their last 7 and have scored in 17/19 games in all comps this season. While the defense has tightened up of late, they had conceded in 14 straight prior to their last 2 games.
But … this game is going to be hard to predict as each of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Sergio Busquets not only won’t start, but won’t even make the trip to Vancouver.
The Herons still have talent and Leo Campana, Robert Taylor and Matias Rojas are more than capable backups, but those are obviously big losses. Brian White, Ryan Gauld and Fafa Picault up top for the Caps also bring offense to the table. One way or another there should be 2 goals.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: SJ vs AUS btts / VAN vs MIA over 1.5 (-119)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
