MLS Predictions & Parlays Matchday 13 (May 11-12)

It’s MLS Matchday 13, with 14 games, 13 on Saturday and 1 on Sunday and we’re here to break down the weekend’s top soccer picks and MLS predictions.

First off, Columbus comes off the bye and Minnesota is on the bye this week.

A ton of teams played in the US Open Cup (USOC) this week including Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, San Jose, SKC and LAFC. 

The Canadian Championship was also running and saw Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto all in action.

Montreal vs Inter Miami Prediction

Lionel Messi had 1 goal and 5 assists last week in a 6-2 route of the Red Bulls, becoming the first player to ever have 5 assists. He also set the record for 6 goal contributions in 1 game. Miami had 6 goals on 8 shots in the second half alone.

Luis Suarez had 3 of those goals, plus an assist and newcomer Matias Rojas in just his 2nd MLS game had 2 goals of his own. Messi and Suarez sit atop the Golden Boot race with 10 goals each.

Miami should have a little revenge on their minds, already losing to Montreal this season on March 10, losing at home 3-2. It was 1-0 Montreal in the 13’ minute and stayed that way until an explosion of goals from the 71’ minute onwards.

Both teams had 4 shots on target, Miami had 5 yellows too in that game, but Miami had no Messi, and Sergio Busquets and Suarez came off the bench.

Miami has now won 4 straight and has scored 16 goals in those 4 games. They’ve scored in 15/16 in all comps, scored multiple in 11/16 but have also conceded in 13 straight. 

Montreal could only draw Forge FC in the Canadian Championship 1-1 on Tuesday and are now winless in 4, with just 1 win in 8.

Teams like Chicago, Seattle, Orlando and Nashville have all scored multiple goals on Montreal this season, all teams that often struggle to score, and Miami should do so again as well. 

Montreal’s injuries for this game include Matias Coccaro, Josef Martinez, Kwadwo Opoku, Lassi Lappalainen and Dominic Yankov. 

Additionally, Mathieu Choiniere has said he wants out, and VP and Sporting Officer Olivier Renard stepped down as of Thursday. There’s too much negatively going on in Montreal right now to see them pulling the upset.

• MLS Predictions: Miami over 1.5 team goals

Atlanta United vs DC United Prediction

Both teams are hard to trust here and hard to trust when making Matchday 13 MLS predictions.

Atlanta beat the Charlotte Independent (USL) in the USOC Tuesday, but had been winless in 5 MLS games prior to that. 

DC drew 2-2 and won 2-1 in recent games but both of those came at home, while DC is still winless away from home at 0-4-1. Since Week 1, DC has just 2 wins in 10. They’ve given up a goal in 9/11.

The Five Stripes have still scored in 8/11 overall games and at home in MLS have scored in 25 straight games at the Benz.

Two or more goals also has some good trends here with DC being 9-2 to Over 1.5 and Atlanta 8-2 this season. In 16 all-time meetings, there’s been 2+ in 14 and BTTS has also gone 6-1 in the past 7. 

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: MIA over 1.5 / ATL vs CHI over 1.5 (-132)

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New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution Prediction

It’s 4th New York hosting 15th New England. 

It’s New England though off a win, 1-0 in Chicago last week, and New York coming in off getting blasted 6-2 by Messi and friends in Miami and who are winless in 4.

Home teams won all 3 last year, New York 2-1 in MLS, New York again in PKs after a 0-0 draw in the Leagues Cup and then New England 1-0 in MLS. The Red Bulls have also only lost 2 of 23 home games with New England in all competitions.

The Red Bulls haven’t lost at home yet this season at 2-2-0, scoring 7 and allowing just 2, while New England has only 2 wins on the season at all, and on the road are 1-0-4, outscored 10-3. Red Bulls get the win here for me in the MLS picks for leg one of this parlay.

• MLS Predictions: New York win

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC Prediction

Orlando has been struggling all season at 2-3-5, 11th, while Philly is 3-5-2, 8th, but has been struggling of late as well being winless in 4.

Last year was 2-2 and 2-1 Orlando, and Orlando has not shut out Philly in any of the last 12 meetings. But it’s not much different going the other way either with Orlando scoring in 10/11. Obviously BTTS bets have hit often at 10-1.

But it’s a bet that’s hitting often for Philly this season too, with BTTS & Over 2.5 going 5-0 and 7-1 of late in MLS, and BTTS being 11-3 in all comps. The Union have only failed to score in 2/14 and both versus Pachuca in the Champions Cup.

Orlando just lost 2 home games, 1-0 to Cincinnati and 2-1 to Toronto and they’ve given up a goal or more in 5 straight and 8/9. But have scored in 5/6. BTTS bets have gone 6-3 of late.

This could very likely be BTTS, or at least Philly scoring 1, despite 4-goal man Julian Carranza being suspended. 

• MLS Predictions: PHI to score

St. Louis City SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction

Two struggling teams meet here with St. Louis 9th in the West with just 2 wins in 10 games, and Chicago 13th in the East with just 2 wins in 11 games.

St Louis drew 0-0 in their last game and have drawn 6 of their past 8.

Chicago lost 1-0 last week and with other recent scores of 0-0, 4-0 loss and 0-0, are winless in 4 and have scored 0 goals in that time. Ouch. Away from home, they’re 0-3-2. 

St. Louis is rested coming off the bye, and have scored in 19/23 all-time home MLS games at CITYPARK.

It’s been too many St. Louis draws for me to trust them to win, but I will bet on them to score.

• MLS Predictions: STL to score
• Parlay Picks:  NYRB win / PHI to score / STL to score (+101)

LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

The Galaxy are 3rd in the West but winless in 2, and they’ll host 1st in the conference RSL, who are undefeated in 7 and winners of 3 straight. They’ve scored in 9/11 games this season and have kept clean sheets in 3/4. Chicho Arango is 2nd to only Messi and Suarez in goals, and 2nd to only Messi in goal contributions.

But the clean sheets may be hard to replicate versus a Galaxy team that has scored in 9/11 themselves. But not in their last 2 games, though they have been without Dejan Jovelic in both, plus Riqui Puig and Mark Delgado in last week’s 0-0 draw in Seattle. 

There were 3 meetings last season and all saw a boatload of goals: 3-2 LA and 2-2 in MLS and 3-2 RSL in the USOC. The last 4 and 5/6 have seen BTTS.

• MLS Predictions: Both to score

LAFC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction

7th LAFC hosts 4th Vancouver on MLS Matchday 13.

These teams have got to know eachother real well of late. Last year they played in the CCC and LA won 3-0 and 3-0. In MLS Vancouver won 3-2 and they drew 1-1. And then in the playoffs LA won 5-2 and 1-0.

LAFC just lost 3-1 away to last place San Jose and they’ve been scoring and conceding at both ends of the pitch of late with other scores being 3-2, 2-2, 2-2, 2-1 and 3-2 prior to that result. 

LAFC had actually scored multiple goals in 6 straight games prior to the San Jose loss. 

On Wednesday they played the Las Vegas Lights in the USOC Cup and won 3-1, so the BTTS trend continued in the USOC as well.

Vancouver hasn’t had much success versus LA, but they have this season in general with just 2 losses. The Caps beat Cavalry in the Canadian Championship Tuesday so will have 1 extra day of rest, are undefeated in 4 and have scored in 12/14 in all comps this season.

• MLS Predictions: Both to score
• Parlay Picks:  LA vs RSL both score / LA vs VAN both score (+150)

Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Two teams off big wins meet here. The Rapids went to New York and beat NYCFC 2-0, and are now winners of 3/4.

The Quakes picked up just their second win of the season, but it was an impressive 3-1 win at Levis Stadium over LAFC. They’re undefeated in 2 games now, but still the worst team in the league. Add in a 1-0 win over the Oakland Roots in the USOC Tuesday though and they’re undefeated in 3. 

These teams just played April 13, and Rafael Navarro scored early with a PK in the 10’ minute, he added a brace in the 60’ and Cole Bassett added a 3rd in the 80’. Both scored last week too and Colorado won, on the road and without Djordje Mihailovic.

That was a rare game that saw 3 goals between them with Under 2.5 going 5-2 in the last 7 meetings and there being a clean sheet against someone or both in 6/8. 

Colorado has scored in 10/11 games this season and going up against the league’s worst defense that has conceded in every game (minus the USOC this week), you’d have to expect them to score again. 

After allowing multiple goals in each of their first 9 games, San Jose has at least only allowed 1 in each of their last 2 games in MLS, and offensively the Quakes could keep things interesting having scored 7 goals in their last 3 games and having added new DP Hernan Lopez.

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5

Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Prediction

It’s the one Sunday game and a chance for one of these rvials to try and turn things around. Both are just 2-4-5 with 10 points and down in 11/12th.

Last year it was 4-1 Portland, 0-0 and 2-2. Amazingly, this Cascadia rivalry has been all Timbers for some time with Portland being 6-4-2 in the last 12 meetings and undefeated in the past 7. 

BTTS bets had been the way to go for Portland until last week’s 2-0 away loss to Charlotte. Though that did come without Evander and Diego Chara, both who should be back this week. Prior to that BTTS + Over 2.5 had gone 6-0 and 9-1.

The Timbers’ winless run did continue though, now at 8 games, so too has their streak of giving up 2+ goals, now 7.

Seattle did well to draw the Galaxy 0-0 last week and beat Philly 3-2, but LA was without several key players and the Philly game was a weird make-up/restarted game from earlier this season. 

Seattle has given up a road goal in 6/7 going back to last season and that may continue here. But then you can never count on the Timbers keeping clean sheet to anyone either so it’s both scoring for me in the MLS picks.

• MLS Predictions: Both to score
• Parlay Picks:  COL vs SJ Over 1.5  /  POR vs SEA both score (+103)