On MLS Matchday 23, there’s 13 games on Saturday, August 29 and 2 game featured on Sunday between Columbus and New England and St. Louis and Dallas.
Last week the BTTS prop went crazy. Only 2 teams out of 30 didn’t score, so naturally it was 13-2. I’m going to include a few of those bets into this week’s MLS Week 23 best bets.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Prediction
On paper this looks like an easy home win for Miami at home who are 2nd in the East vs Montreal who are 14th. But then Miami just lost to Toronto who are 10th last week, a team just 3 points better than Montreal.
There’s a big change on the sidelines with Guillermo Hoyos sacked and Cristian ‘Kily’ Gonzalez taking over. Gonzalez is another Argentina, has a mixed coaching career, and has the rare distinction of being able to see he’s played with both Maradona and Messi. He likes an aggressive and attacking style. González previously managed Argentine clubs Rosario Central, Unión de Santa Fe, and Platense All that said, work permits are still needed so it sounds like Hoyos is still here this weekend.
And Miami is in one of its worst runs in years right now. It’s now 0 wins in their last 5 across all comps where they’re 0-1-5 and outscored 13-7. That’s still a good amount of goals scored and they’ve done that in 21 straight. But they’ve conceded multiple goals in 7 straight and 9/10, and a total of 23 goals in that time. The BTTS & Over 2.5 has been money so why not ride that streak?
Montreal are no less capable than any other team that has scored on Miami and they’re a scrappy team that is undefeated in 4 (1-3-0), have just 2 losses in 8, have scored 7 goals in 4 games, but then have conceded in 6 straight and 9/10 themselves. With Owosu in the lineup Montreal always have a chance to score and he has 13 overall goals this season, a goal in 4 straight games and 2 shots on target in each of his last 4 games. Just once in 13 has he not put a shot on frame.
There had been 5, 6, 5 and 5 goals in previous meetings between them until Miami won just 1-0 in Montreal last month.
- MLS picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-188), Messi SOT, Owusu SOT (-105)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC Prediction
It’s the third meeting of the season between them with Atlanta winning 2-0 in Charlotte in the USOC and then a 2-2 draw in Charlotte in the league. So this will be the first time Atlanta hosts. A year ago when they played in Atlanta, Charlotte won 3-2.
After a long winless spell of 0 wins in 8 games, The Five Stripes are suddenly and finally hot, winning three games in a row, all by a 2-1 score. They’ve scored 2 goals in 4 straight and in 4/5, but then haven’t kept a clean sheet for 12 games, not since… well, playing this Charlotte team in April in the USOC. Miguel Almiron has been particularly strong lately with 3G/2A in his last 6 games and Fafa Picault has 2 goals in 3 games. The big player news though is the signing of Swiss International Breel Embolo who joins from France’s Rennes. He was still waiting on his work visa when I recorded this. World Cup fans will remember his red card against Argentina in the quarterfinals.
Now all of these wins have come vs other struggling teams like SKC, Minnesota and the Red Bulls. Charlotte are 5th.
The Crown have been playing well for a while and in all comps have just 2 losses in 11, and only 1 in MLS in that time with the other in Leagues Cup. The 1-0 loss to Pachuca is the only time they’ve not scored in that time, and they’ve scored 9 goals across their last 3 games by winning 3-1, drawing 3-3 and winning 3-1.
- MLS picks: BTTS (-200)
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
8th New York hosts 13th Philly but it’s certainly the Union in better form more recently.
The Union are 5-2-2 across their last 9 overall matches and are undefeated in 3, after a 3-2 win, 2-2 draw and 1-1 draw. Notably, they even drew Miami. In 3/7 games they’ve scored 3 goals and just twice in 13 have they scored 0. But then only 1 game, back in July, have they kept the ball out of their own net across those 13 games.
Philly won 3-1 in July when these teams last met. But the home team has won 4 straight between them and a road team has only won 1/8. So maybe that tips to the NY side.
But the Red Bulls are winless in 3 with just 1 win in 6. They’ve not kept the ball out of their net since the second game of the regular season on February 28.
I’d rather some sorta Philly bet here, but with two poor defences, a bet on goals looks safer.
- MLS picks: BTTS
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction
A big match with 1st hosting 6th filled with superstar players. They’ve not played this year but Cincy won 2-1 both times last year. BTTS bets have hit in 5/6 too.
Nashville is favored and they have 3 wins in a row but by the smallest of margins. After an impressive 4-1 win over Miami, they needed a 92’ minute goals to beat New York Red Bulls 1-0, and then two stoppage time goals to comeback and tie and then take the lead and win over Columbus 3-2. We could just as easily be saying they have 1 win in 4 instead of 4 wins in 5.
In these last 3 wins, Najar has 2, Mukhtar 3, Surridge 1, Woledzi 1, and Baker-Whiting 1, so they’re getting goals from all over.
Cincinnati hasn’t lost in 3, have just 3 losses in 18 and have scored in 23 straight. Their only clean sheet 14 came vs Pumas. Still, the defense has improved a bit, only giving up multiple goals once in their last 6. Naturally BTTS has been the story all season for Cincy, being 13-1 most recently.
Drawing a struggling Seattle team at home 1-1 last week, is one of the few negatives you can point to for them right now.
Evander is always good for props with goals in 3/4 and a goal or assist or both in 13/14.
Both are in good form. But have game-chasing players. Nashville is home so I give a slight edge, but they’ve just been getting by lately. I like the BTTS or a draw.
- MLS picks: BTTS
- Parlay Picks: ATL vs CHA btts / NY vs PHI btts / NAS vs CIN btts (+210)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
Houston is 2nd and San Jose 4th with just 5 pts between them but these teams could not be further a part at the moment.
The Dynamo were and are one of the hottest teams in all of MLS who had been undefeated in 9 games in all comps in regulation and has clean sheets in 5 straight. They met another team on an extended undefeated streak versus St. Louis and lost 2-1. As good as they’ve been, they have only scored 1 goal in each of their last 3, but at least 1 in 10 straight.
Guilherme had goals in 4 straight games before failing to score vs Vancouver. He also suffered a sprained ankle and sat out the St. Louis match. If he plays, he’s been a solid prop bet and I would at least use him to get a SOT in an SGP.
The Quakes have all of their points due to a strong start but that seems like a lifetime ago now as they have just 1 win since April 28 in the USOC and no wins in their last 6. It’s 4 straight losses and a truly embarrassing 5-1 home loss to an equally struggling Minnesota United last week. They’ve made a big transfer by snagging Eduard Lowen from St. Louis this week.
Last year it was 3-3 in San Jose and 2-1 San Jose in Houston.
Houston aren’t scoring many goals lately but they rarely lose. They also rarely lose at home where they’re 7–1-2, where the scores have been lower with just 13GF and 7GA.
The Dynamo should win but perhaps it’s close if San Jose gets some sorta response after last week’s heavy defeat.
- MLS picks: Houston double chance
Sporting KC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction
The biggest mismatch of the week is 15th SKC hosting 1st Vancouver. Given current form, recent history, and recent transfers, you’d be hard-pressed to make a strong case for SKC.
SKC has 1 win in 8 and 0 in 5, where they’re 0-1-4 and outscored 11-2.
Vancouver is slowly coming out of their slump with wins in 2/3 and a huge 5-0 thumping of Dallas last week. Brian White returned from a Leagues Cup injury and had 4 shots, 2 on target and 2 goals.
The Caps already beat SKC 3-0 in April They also won 3-0 and 2-0 last year and have won 5 straight in the matchup.
To make matters worse for SKC, they just transferred their top scorer and best player in Jovelic to Seattle. He had 8G/1A this year and no one else has more than 3G (Calvin Harris).
- MLS picks: Vancouver moneyline
- Parlay Picks: HOU dc / VAN win & White SOT (-107)
MLS Picks and Parlays #4
San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy Prediction
It’s the Chucky Lozano Bowl with the disgruntled star from San Diego having been recently transferred to LA.
LA is kinda blah. Not winning. Not losing. Not many goals in their games. They have 1 win in 8. But only 1 loss in 5, with a ton of draws. They drew Montreal 2-2 last week and in an unflattering stat, have now taken a red card in 3 straight games. This time it was keeper Marcinkowski.
With scores of 2-2, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1, Under 2.5 bets is 4-1 in recent LA games.
The wins are slowly returning for San Diego. After having only 2 wins in 17, it’s 4 wins in 5, including a 3-0 win over Colorado last week. It was just the 2nd time in 9 games they scored multiple goals in a game.
San Diego won the first only meetings last year 2-0 and 2-1.
SD win (-125), BTTS (-225), BTTS & Over 2.5 (-150),
- MLS picks: San Diego double chance and Lozano 1+ sot (-134)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
