We’re down the final 16 teams in this year’s UCL with the 8 playoff winners joining the top 8 from the League Phase (LP). Let’s look at all 8 games and make some best bet parlays this week’s Champions League predictions.
Tuesday, March 10
UCL Picks #1
Galatasaray vs Liverpool Prediction
Going 6-0-2 in the LP, Liverpool finished 3rd and avoided the playoff round. They scored 20, and the 8 they conceded were tied for the 4th-fewest. They actually shut out each of their past 3 opponents, 6-0, 3-0, and 1-0 (QAR, MAR, INT). However, they were shut out themselves against this opponent in the LP, losing to Gala 1-0.
Watch this Liverpool team weekly though and you’ll know their defense is unpredictable. They had 3 straight clean sheets vs Sunderland, Brighton and Forest, but then conceded 2 vs West Ham, 2 vs Wolves and lost in the league, and then 1 vs Wolves again on Friday in the FA Cup in a 3-1 win. Albeit Wolves scored in the final seconds in stoppage time and posed little threat all game. Still, giving up 5 goals to those teams in the last 3 games makes it tough to envision a shut out of Turkey’s highest scoring team.
While Gala were only 20th in the LP of the UCL, last round they smacked Juve 5-2 in Leg 1. Leg 2 got dicey, as they went down 1-0, saw Juve take a red halfway through, still conceded twice more to “lose” 3-0 in regulation, which forced extra-time where they finally scored twice to again “lose” 3-2, but advance on aggregate.
This weekend Gala met Besiktas in the Istanbul Derby and won 1-0 despite going down a man, breaking Besiktas’ 18-match undefeated streak.
BTTS (-188) / BTTS & Over 2.5 (-125)
- UCL Picks: Both Teams to Score
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Prediction
Oddly these sides have never met before.
While Spurs have been dreadful in the EPL and are at a real threat of relegation in 16th, they were 4th in the UCL LP at 5-2-1, scoring 17 and giving up the 3rd-fewest goals with 7.
So which Spurs do we get? UCL Spurs is decent. Spurs anywhere else is awful. In all comps they’re winless in 6, have lost 5 straight and have only 2 wins in 14.
Atleti were just 14th in the LP, mostly cause of their road form. But at home they were 3-0-1. That trend continued in the playoff round where they could only draw 3-3 away in Belgium to Club Brugge, before winning easily 4-1 in Leg 2 back in Spain. Defense was also a problem in the LP, as the 15 GA was the worst of any top-16 side.
It was then a narrow win over Oviedo, a 3-0 loss to Barca in the CDR (though they didn’t need to win) and a 3-2 win vs Sociedad this weekend, now giving them wins in 4/5. On one hand they’ve scored 15 goals in 6 games, but have also allowed 14 in 6 games.
Both teams can be unpredictable, but Atleti at home is usually a good bet and between the two teams, they’re certainly in better form.
- UCL Picks: Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals
- Parlay Picks: GAL vs LIV btts / ATM over 1.5 (+138)
UCL Picks #2
Newcastle vs Barcelona Prediction
It’s a rematch from the League Phase where Barcelona won 2-1 in England. Rashford scored twice and Gordon pulled one back for Newcastle late in the 90’ minute.
I like to bet on teams that are consistent. Consistently good. Consistently bad. Or just consistent in the amount of goals they score are concede. And these teams fit that bill.
In almost every game Barcelona is good for 2+ goals and they usually concede. The BTTS & Over 2.5 hit in 7/8 LP games for them. Only not hitting in a 3-0 loss to Chelsea and their 8 games saw the most goals at 36, but no team in the top 13 allowed more goals than Barca. Look at all of their matches and though and it’s not been the case lately as they’ve given up just 1 goal in 4 games. This weekend they rested the likes of Lewandowski, Raphinha and Fermin until the final 30 minutes vs Bilbao, and only Yamal’s 2nd-half goal got them a narrow and their first 1-0 win of the season. In the UCL, they’ve conceded in 11 straight.
Then there’s Newcastle who scored in all of their 10 UCL games, but also conceded in their last 3 and in both games to Qarabag. In all of their matches goals have been flying in at both ends of the field for some time, with BTTS & Over 2.5 going 11-0 and BTTS 12-0.
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-150)
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Prediction
It’s the first-ever matchup between these teams. Bayern has been rolling all teams this year and they were near-perfect in the LP at 7-0-1, scoring 22 and conceding just 8.
On Friday it was business as usual routing Gladbach 4-1 and they did it with Olise on the bench and Kane not even in the lineup. They’re undefeated in 8, winners of 6 straight and they’ve scored 3+ goals in each of their last 4. In fact, all season, in all comps, they’ve still only lost twice, and those are the only 2 games where they’ve not scored 2+. Though he didn’t play Friday, Kane has scored in each of this past 7 games and twice in three straight.
At 4-1-3, Atalanta were 15th and needed the playoff to get here where they lost 2-0 away to Dortmund and then won 4-1 at home in Leg 2. Since that time they lost 2-1 to Sassuolo, drew Lazio 2-2 and again drew 2-2 vs Udinese this weekend.
Their games have been pretty wide-open with BTTS & Over 2.5 going 5-0 and considering Bayern have given up 5 goals in 3 games and 1 in 7/9 this could be a good BTTS & Over 2.5 game. Or we can just focus on Bayern doing what they always do in scoring 2 goals as they have the highest GPG rate in the UCL.
- UCL Picks: Bayern Munich over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: NEW vs BAR btts & over 1.5 / BM over 1.5 (+150)
Wednesday, March 11
UCL Picks #3
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting Prediction
This is the first-ever meeting between them so will be the first time Sporting travels up to the frozen Arctic Circle for a match. It’s a location that’s proved quite the obstacle for most teams. Bodo drew Tottenham 2-2 at home, lost 3-2 to Juve, and beat Man City 3-1 in the LP. Then in the playoffs, they beat Inter 3-1 in Norway before also winning 2-1 away in Italy.
Other notable results on the road this tournament include a 2-2 draw at Dortmund and a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 10-2 in all of their UCL games, scoring in all but 1, and conceding in all but 1 and in each of their last 11. Bodo have 2 players in top form for goals with Hauge (6A/1A) and Hogh (4G/3A). With the Norwegian league off, they’ve been sitting around resting waiting for this match.
Sporting had a solid LP going 5-1-2, to be 7th. They had a big game this weekend within the top 4 in Portugal vs Braga and drew 2-2. In all games this season they’ve lost only 3 times, and none in their last 14. There’s also been 0 games in any match where they haven’t scored in their last 40. The only time was in the season kick-off in July in the Supertaca Final.
Backing Bodo to win at +160 is tempting. So too is just betting on goals.
- UCL Picks: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-125)
Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction
These teams regularly meet almost every year in the UCL. Last year it was in the Knockout Round Playoffs, won 3-2 and 3-1 by Madrid. They’ve also played once in this tournament too in the LP, won 2-1 by Man City in December. In that game Rodrygo opened the scoring, but O’Reilly and Haaland scored soon after to lead 2-1 at the half which proved to be the final score. BTTS bets are now 10-1 between and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 8-3.
Rodrygo won’t be around this time as he’s done for the year with an ACL injury. He’s one of many key players missing for Madrid including Mbappe and Bellingham. That puts a lot of the offensive at the feet of Vinicius. He has goals in 5/7 games but not in his last two. He’s had at least 1 shot on target though in 8 straight.
Last week was up and down for Madrid who lost 1-0 to Getafe and then were tied 1-1 with Celta on Friday until a late goal snagged all 3 points in a 2-1 win. Prior to that they needed the playoff to get past Benfica 1-0 and 2-1, and sandwich in there was a 2-1 loss to Osasuna. Madrid often just barely edge out wins, but they rarely draw with 0 in their last 22 games.
Man City just squeaked into the top 8 in the LP at 5-1-2. On the weekend they played Newcastle in the FA Cup and went down early but stormed back with 3 goals to win 3-1. They’re undefeated in 11 at 9-2-0.
City look the more stable team right now and have less injury concerns so maybe a road win is possible. They’re actually odd-on favourites to do so at -106. But counting Madrid out at home is tough to do.
- UCL Picks: Both Team to Score
- Parlay Picks: BG vs SPO btts & over 2.5 / RM vs MCI btts (+170)
UCL Picks #4
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction
These teams haven’t met since 2002.
In the LP, Arsenal were top of the pack at 8-0-0, scoring 23, allowing just 4 and being the only perfect team.
Leverkusen were 16th at 3-3-2. That meant they needed the playoffs to get here where they won 2-0 and drew 0-0 vs Greek side Olympiacos. Coming int this weekend they had played in a ton of tight games with 1 or 0 goals in 4 straight games. The BTTS NO was 6-0 and Under 2.5 was 6-1. But then came a wild 3-3 with Freiburg.
The Gunners don’t always win pretty but they usually do, still with just 2 losses all season. They’ve had close wins lately over Chelsea 2-1, Brighton 1-0 and then Mansfield 2-1 in the FA Cup this weekend.
Arsenal are clearly the better team between them but away in Germany it could be tight…
- UCL Picks: Arsenal double chance & under 3.5 (-175) / under 4.5 (-334)
- OR ARS double chance, ARS to score, under 3.5 (-120)
PSG vs Chelsea Prediction
These team met in 2016 UCL play but had not played since until last summer when they met in the Club World Cup Final, won 3-0 by Chelsea.
Chelsea advanced in the top 8, finishing 6th at 5-1-2. PSG missed out on the top 8, being 11th at 4-2-2.
That meant PSG needed the playoffs, where they met fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco where they won 3-2 and drew 2-2. They played Monaco again on Friday in the league and lost 3-1. While PSG have scored in each of their last 12 games, they’ve also given up multiple goals in 4/6. The only clean sheets in that time are vs Le Havre and Metz.
An interesting shot prop could be targeting Vitinha. Only Mbappe, Vinicius, and Osimhen have attempted more shots in the UCL so far. Vitinha’s 34 shots attempts rank 4th, and his 12 shots on target are tied in 9th. Simply a shot attempt is -700 and a shot on target is +150. Granted in his last 8 overall games he only has 2 shots on target.
Chelsea were pushed all the way to extra-time in Wales this weekend in the FA Cup vs Wrexham. Tied 2-2, Wrexham saw red in extra-time, went down 3-2, nearly tied it but had the goal called back and then the Blues added a 4th late. Joao Pedro had that 4th goal and he has 6 goals in 5 games with 20 shots/ 9 on target in that time. Enzo Fernandez has had a shot on target in 8/10 and a shot attempt in 9/10, only not doing so vs Hull where he played just 31 minutes.
Team-wise, Chelsea have only lost 2/13 but they’re still unpredictable, at least defensively. Only a 1-0 loss to Arsenal is the only time they’ve not scored in 23 games, but they always concede, doing so in 10/11, only shutting out Hull. Obviously, that makes the BTTS (-188) bet always an option.
- UCL Picks: Both Teams to score & Pedro 1+ shot on target (+110) or shot attempt (-134)
Or a parlay
- ARS double chance & under 4.5
- PSG vs CHE btts
- (-102)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
