It’s MLS Week 5. A big card split out over 2 days with 10 games on Saturday, including an early 1pm EST game with TFC vs Columbus and 5 games on Sunday. Let’s cover of them for this weekend’s MLS predictions.
MLS Picks #1
Saturday.
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
The Red Bulls were quick out of the gate with 2 wins, but have since lost 3-0 and drawn 1-1 with a goal in the last seconds last week vs TFC. They’ve conceded in 3/4 games and are out some defenders this week.
Can this young team go to one of the hardest places to travel to in Charlotte and pick up points? The Crown had the best home record last year. And after a 1-1 draw and 3-0 loss on the road, they’ve won 3-1 and drawn 0-0 at home.
Drawing the champs, Miami, last week, looks ok on paper. But playing at home and vs a rotated Miami side, I did expect a bit more. At least for them to score. I’ll go back to the well this week and ask them to get on the scoresheet.
That’s something they’ve done in 7 straight games vs NY and in every home game vs them since they came into the league. In fact a road team has never won in this matchup in 10 games, the BTTS s 6-1, and last year both won at home, NY 4-2 and then Charlotte 1-0.
- MLS Picks: Charlotte to score
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo Prediction
It’s a Texas Derby between Dallas, 9th, at 1-2-1 and Houston, 8th, at 2-0-1. So while Dallas are home and are probably considered the better team, Houston is above them and with 1 fewer game played.
Dallas have played 2 games where they’ve scored 3 goals, and 2 where they’ve been shut out. The good news is, the 2 games where they’ve scored 3 have come at home, where they’ll be here. Last week it was a wild 3-3 draw with San Diego. With 5 of Dallas’ 6 goals, Petar Musa is a must-bet prop option, tied for the Golden Boot race with Vancouver’s Brian White. Last week Musa had all 3 Dallas goals, 6 shots and 5 on target.
The Dynamo had their own wild game last week, down 1-0, up 2-1, tied 2-2, down a man when Markanich got sent off in stoppage time, and then scoring the winner in the 106’ minute of stoppage time to win 3-2. Each of Guilherme, Andrade and Bogusz scored with Guilherme leading the team with 3 goals.
Houston has only played home games, so we’re not sure what they’ll look like on the road yet. But last year they won in Dallas 2-0, and Dallas won in Houston 2-1. Previously, road teams had had not won any of the other 21 meetings. Under 2.5 is now 5-1 recently. Given Houston has already given up 1, 2, and 2 goals at home, they could concede again on the road.
2 Dallas goals at -110 is an option, so too is the BTTS (-175) as Dallas has conceded in 3/4. Or maybe Dallas to score and Musa to have a shot on target as a SGP, parlay leg.
- MLS Picks: We’ll settle on BTTS and Musa 1+ sot
- Parlay Picks: CHA to score / DAL vs HOU btts & Musa 1+ sot (+120)
MLS Picks #2
Onto Sunday.
NYCFC vs Inter Miami Prediction
Only Vancouver has more goals scored than NYC, and no one is above them in the East standings right now at 3-1-0. They’ve scored 11, allowed just 3 and face a Miami team who just got knocked out of CCC and who are 3rd in the East at 2-1-1, scoring and allowing 6 goals. Messi did score his 900th career goal in the CCC though.
Miami’s games haven’t been as explosive as in the past with 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1 results of late. Granted, two were high-stakes CCC games vs a solid a Nashville team.
NYC have 7 different scorers, led by Fernandes with 4. Shots props would be great for hime too, with shots on target totals of 1, 2, 1 and 5.
As good as NYC have been, it could be worth noting they’ve not played top teams in the LA Galaxy, Philly (struggling), Orlando (down a man), and Colorado.
They played 3 times last year. A 2-2 draw in Miami, 4-0 road Miami win and then a 5-1 home Miami win in the Conference Finals. Before that it was three 1-1 draws.
The Pigeons are actually favored here, at +125, compared to Miami at +190, making even Miami to score, giving a little value as a parlay leg. The BTTS at -200 is also an option. A draw here wouldn’t surprise me at +275. Miami is coming off CCC disappointment, but NY hasn’t beaten the Herons in 6 games.
- MLS Picks: Miami to score
Portland Timbers vs LA Galaxy Prediction
This matchup has regularly produced goals. It was 1-1 in Portland last year and 4-2 Portland in LA after that. Other scores have been 4-2, 3-2, and 3-3. The BTTS is 9-1, BTTS & Over 2.5 is 7-3 and simply Over 2.5 is 15-3 even further back.
This one could be no different. Timbers’ games are tied for the most GPG in the league at 4.3 alongside Orlando’s. They’ve scored 6 goals in 4 games, but have been getting ripped apart defensively giving up 2, 2, 4 and 3 goals, with the last 3 games all being losses.
Portland has allowed the 3rd-most shots on target, and now they’ll face the Galaxy who have produced the most shots on target of any team in MLS.
LA only has 1 win in MLS themselves and lost 2-1 and 4-1 in their last 2. They’ll be in good spirits after taking out Jamaican side Mount Pleasant 3-0 over both legs. Klauss leads them with 4 goals in MLS and he scored again in CCC, to go with 2 goals from Pec. Now beating Mount Pleasant is a low bar, but LA have still at least scored in 7 of their 8 overall matches this season. They’ve also conceded in 3/4 MLS games.
Goals are expected here with the BTTS & Over 2.5 at -138 odds.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5
- Parlay Picks: MIA to score / POR vs LA btts & O2.5 (+111)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
