Leg 2 of the Champions League Round of 16 kicks off this week with 4 games on Tuesday and 4 on Wednesday. Those games are:
There were a ton of goals and lop-sided results in Leg 1. 5/8 teams scored, and 5 teams lost by 3 or more goals. So some of these results may be tough to judge. You assume no one is going to lay down, but a few teams may know the odds are very much against them especially if they concede early. On the other hand, with the need to attack and win by margin, we could see some open games.
Sporting vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction
Both teams were able to put all of their attention onto this Leg 2 game having not played this weekend. The Norwegian league is off and Sporting’s game in Portugal was postponed.
It’s a big mountain to climb for Sporting who went to Norway and suffered a similar outcome to many this tournament, losing 3-0. Bodo got a PK goal from Fet, followed by goals from Blomberg and Hogh. With Hauge leading them with 6 goals they have offensive from multiple sources. Both Hauge and Hogh are great player prop options and Hogh has goals in 4/5 and 1+ shot on target in 6/7.
In all games this season Sporting have lost only 4 times, and just once now in their last 15. Getting shut out was even more rare, having scored in 40 straight games going back to the SuperTaca in July.
Bodo has had plenty of impressive matches in the UCL this term. They drew Tottenham 2-2 at home, lost 3-2 to Juve, and beat Man City 3-1 in the LP. Then in the playoffs, they beat Inter 3-1 in Norway before also winning 2-1 away in Italy. Other notable results on the road this tournament include a 2-2 draw at Dortmund and a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 10-3 in all of their UCL games, scoring in all but 1, and conceding in all but 2.
Sporting have to go for it and they’re at home where they were 4-0-0, scoring 11 and conceding just 3 in the LP. It seems unlikely they don’t score. But Bodo score in all of their games and they were just in this spot last round, beating Inter in Leg 1 and instead of just holding on for a draw or small loss, they went out and won again in Leg 2 on the road. THey’ve also had success vs Portuguese teams beating Porto and Braga in last year’s UEL.
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-138)
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
Leverkusen were moments away from escaping with a 1-0 win in Leg 1 but a late Arsenal PK to tie it 1-1 makes this Leg 2 trip to England tougher.
In the LP, Arsenal were top of the pack at 8-0-0, scoring 23, allowing just 4 and being the only perfect team. They’ve also extended their lead in the EPL after beating Everton 2-0 this weekend, while Man City could only draw. With only 2 losses anywhere all season, it’s hard to bet against the Gunners. But it’s rarely straightforward with Arsenal, with their 2 goals vs Everton coming in the 89’ and 97’ minutes. That second goal came from Max Dowman, who at 16 became the EPL’s youngest ever scorer.
But Leverkusen have been solid for weeks now. Solid, but just not good enough to win. Despite taking a 1-0 lead over Bayern Munich this weekend and Bayern taking 2 red cards, they again drew 1-1. That’s 5 draws in their last 6 games and mostly low-scoring ones (1-1, 1-1, 3-3, 1-0 win (Hamburger), 1-1, and 0-0. The Under 2.5 has gone 6-1 in their last 7 games.
Leverkusen games have been tight, while Arsenal games are often ugly. This could be low-scoring again with Arsenal eventually coming out on top. The Gunners have lost just 1/22 home UEFA matches.
- UCL Picks: Arsenal to score and under 3.5 (-143)
Chelsea vs PSG Prediction
Tied 2-2 with 16 minutes to go, the floodgates opened for PSG who scored in the 74’, 86’ and 94’ to win 5-2 in Leg 2. They had 4 different scores and 2 from Kvaratskhelia, plus an assist who made an instant impact after getting subbed on in the 62’ minute. That should be enough to get him a start here, thus, bringing his player props into play. They have a big lead, home field and the rest advantage as Ligue 1 agreed to postpone their game this weekend to prepare for this match.
With Chelsea needing to attack this could open things up again, and while PSG have scored in 13 straight in all comps, they’ve given up multiple goals in 5/7 as well.
Chelsea’s 8-game streak of scoring came to halt this weekend in a rare low-scoring 1-0 home loss to Newcastle. Goals had been flying at both end for them prior to that game with BTTS going 5-0 and 10-2. There had been 3 or more goals in 10 of those 12 as well.
An interesting shot prop could be targeting Vitinha. Only Mbappe, Vinicius, and Osimhen have attempted more shots in the UCL so far. His 6 goals also rank 7th. Kvaratskhelia is also in the top 6 for shot attempts and has a combined 10 goal involvements. With 13 players who have scored in the UCL, more than any other team, it can be hard to pick who stands out game by game.
Joao Pedro has 6 goals in 7 games, but none in the last 2, but 1+ shot on target in 6/7. He had 0 vs Newcastle but 4 shot attempts.
Only once in 13 games has Enzo Fernandez not had a shot attempt and in that game he played only 31 minutes. He also has the most goal involvements (3G/2A).
Unless Chelsea goes down early and gives up, you’d think we see more goals again in Leg 2.
Betting options:
BTTS & Over 2.5 (-163) OR add some shot attempts Pedro + Kvaratskhelia (-120) OR Pedro 1+ sot (+120)
Or Chelsea to score 2+ and PSG to score (-105).
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 & Pedro 1+ sot (+120)
Man City vs Real Madrid Prediction
And we have a 3rd team on Tuesday that needs to overturn a 3-goal deficit after Man City lost 3-0 away in Madrid last week, with a starting 11 that had never been used by Pep all season and created their lowest xG (0.59) of the tournament. They didn’t recover this weekend either going away to West Ham, a team they usually dominate, and only drawing 1-1. They’ve slipped to 9 points back Arsenal and Pep stated if they dropped points this weekend the title race would be over. And it looks like he may be right. Last week they also could only draw Forest 2-2. So they’ve picked a bad time to drop form. Still, the Madrid loss is their only loss in 13 games.
The goals are suddenly flying for Madrid even without Mbappe and others. The got a hat-trick from Valverde vs City and then 4 goals this weekend (Valverde, Rudiger, Huijsen and Guler) in beating Elche 4-1, only allowing an OG late in the game.
A 1-0 loss to Getafe is the only time they’ve not scored in 22 games, scoring 2 or more 18 times in that stretch. The Man City shut out is their only clean sheet in 6 though. But they’ve only given up more than 1 goal once in 10 games.
These teams regularly meet almost every year in the UCL. Last year it was in the Knockout Round Playoffs, won 3-2 and 3-1 by Madrid. They’ve also played once in this tournament too in the LP, won 2-1 by Man City in December. BTTS bets are now 10-2 between and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 8-4. There’s been 3+ goals between them in 6/7 and 10/12.
Man City at home knowing they need goals, might make Man City to score 2+ at (-225) an ok parlay leg. Then again, scoring has dried up lately and even Haaland has just 4 goals in 17 games.
But after giving up goals to Forest and West Ham lately, you’d expect Madrid to find the scoresheet too in an attempt to put this tie away.
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-120) OR add Vini shot (-105) / shot on target (+150) — He’s 3rd in shot attempts.
Tuesday Parlay Bet
- SPO vs BG btts & O2.5
- CHE vs PSG btts & O2.5
- (+179)
Barcelona vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle were moments away from beating and shutting out Barcelona, up 1-0 until they conceded a late PK and drew 1-1. Replicating that performance at the Camp Nou won’t be easy. They did replicate it away to Chelsea though this weekend, winning 1-0 on the road, a rare road win and road clean sheet. After 11 straight games that cashed BTTS & Over 2.5 bets, they’ve now had 2 low-scoring games—still the BTTS bet alone is 13-1.
In the UCL alone, Newcastle has scored in all of their 11 games, but also conceded in their last 4.
This is now the 3rd meeting between them this competition with Barca winning 2-1 in the league phase.
Barca played Sevilla on Sunday, one day later than Newcastle’s game and got back to winning and scoring a boatload of goals, winning 5-2. Raphinha had a hat-trick (2 PKs) and each of Gavi, Yamal and Lopez got to start on the bench.
Barca have to be better at home. To score 2+ in a parlay looks good (-250), or the moneyline win (-175). Another game with BTTS & Over 2.5 potential would pay (-150). Or Barca to advance and BTTS (+100).
- UCL Picks: Barcelona to advance and BTTS (+100)
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta Prediction
Bayern went from a thumping 6-1 win over Atalanta (without even needing Harry Kane in the lineup) in the UCL to a rare non-win, drawing Leverkusen this weekend 1-1 after taking 2 red cards. That’s just the 3rd time all season they’ve not scored 2+ goals. It’s still just 2 losses. They’ve been giving up some goals, doing so in 5 straight and 9/11.
And you’d think they may give up some more this week considering the wacky goaltending dillema they have. Neuer was already out. Ulreich got injured vs Leverkusen this weekend. Urban is still concussed from the Round of 16. Even their U19 keeper Klanac is injured. So … it could be 16-year-old U19 backup Prescott getting the start!
Atalanta also drew this weekend, 1-1 vs Inter. They’re winless in 5 and the BTTS is 7-0, plus BTTS & Over 2.5 is 6-1. They’ve not had a clean sheet in 8 games and have given up multiple goals in 5/8.
I want to make some different picks but again, betting on goals may be the way to go with the BTTS & Over 2.5 (-125) especially with the Bayern keeper situation. But they may also dig in harder and play tough defense for whoever is back there. And Atalanta are so out of this tie that there certainly is the possibility they roll over.
For a big price, if you think La Dea put in some effort and capitalize on the young Bayern keeper, Atalanta to score 2+ pays big at +275.
Bayern to score 2+ could be tossed into a parlay at (-400) too.
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-125)
Liverpool vs Galatasaray Prediction
It’s now twice in the UCL that Gala has beaten Liverpool 1-0 in Turkey. On Sunday, Liverpool hosted Tottenham and almost won 1-0 but conceded late and drew 1-1. They’re home and need to score, but they have 1 win in 4 and have conceded in 5 straight and not exactly to top teams (Wolves, West Ham, Spurs) are all in that mix.
In the league phase, Liverpool scored 20, and the 8 they conceded were tied for the 4th-fewest. They actually shut out each of their past 3 opponents, 6-0, 3-0, and 1-0 (QAR, MAR, INT). So it’s now just 1 GA in their last 4 UCL games.
Galatasaray coasted to a 3-0 win on Saturday over Istanbul Basaksehir. That’s 4 straight wins in all comps, 3 straight clean sheets and goals scored in 9/10 and 14/16. They’ll be out suspended defender Davinson Sanchez for this match.
Betting options: BTTS (-150), or BTTS and Under 5.5 (+110) / Under 4.5 (+187) / Under 3.5 (+375). Having already played two 1-0 games, and with so much on the line, this could be close too.
At about -200, Gala on the +2.5 spread looks nice for a parlay leg. Even if they lose, what has Liverpool shown us to think they’ll win by 3 or more ???. Considering Osimhen has the 2nd-most shot attempts and the most shots on target in the UCL, you could toss him into a SGP for shots or goals.
- UCL Picks: BTTS and Under 4.5 (+187)
Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
It was a Spanish masacre in Leg 1, with Atleti being up 4-0 within 22 mins, chasing Kinsky from the Spurs net, and it never got much better with Atleti going on to win 5-2. It’a huge task for Spurs to overcome a 3-goal deficit.
However, Spurs were 4th in the UCL LP at 5-2-1, scoring 17 and giving up the 3rd-fewest goals with 7.
Atleti weren’t great on the road at 1-1-2 and being outscored 10-6. They gave up 3 away to Brugge in the playoff road game too. In the LP, the 15 GA was the most of any top-16 team. So if Spurs can get a good start and score early, maybe this game opens up.
Atleti won this weekend, 1-0 over Getafe and have won 6/7, but have conceded goals in 7/9 and more than 1 goal in 6 of those 9 as well.
Spurs played Liverpool on Sunday and Richarlison tied it late to make it 1-1. He’ll be a big miss though in Leg 2 as he’s suspended. That got Igor Tudor his first point with Tottenham after losses of 4-1, 2-1, 3-1 and 5-2. Go further back before the Tudor era and Spurs are still winless in 8 games and had given up multiple goals in each of their previous 7. They have scored in 6 straight, so given how unpredictable Atleti is on the road, maybe, this is another game good for goals. Plus, Atleti keeper, Oblak is out with a muscle injury.
- UCL Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-105)
Parlay Pick:
- BAR over 1.5
- GAL +3.5
- TOT vs ATM over 1.5
- (+103)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
