We have 12 games on Saturday and 2 on Sunday this week to consider for our MLS predictions for MLS Matchday 12.
Here is a quick recap of some news this week before we get into the MLS picks.
Columbus played in the Champions Cup (CCC) and won 3-1 in Mexico over Monterrey advancing 5-2 on aggregate to the final versus Pachuca. They’re on bye this weekend, while St. Louis is the team coming off of the bye.
Vancouver has the Canadian Championship Quarterfinals to look ahead to next Tuesday versus Cavalry as well.
No one is undefeated anymore with Philly losing to RSL last week. Philly then went on to lose again on Tuesday in a make-up game versus Seattle, losing 3-2 and being at home.
Messi could not play another game this season and still finish with a good year with 9 goals and 8 assists already.
Let’s start with Messi and the Herons for the first of our MLS predictions this weekend.
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
1st in the East Miami hosts 3rd New York.
You can only look one way here and is has to be goals.
Only Portland and San Jose games average more goals per game than Miami’s 3.8.
The Herons are 8-3 to Over 2.5 totals in MLS.
But include the CCC and they’ve already played 15 games, scoring in 14 of them and conceding in 13, including each of the past 12. The combo bet of BTTS + Over 2.5 has gone a perfect 6-0 and then also 10-2 in their recent games.
Miami are winners of three straight and have scored 10 goals in those 3 games but will likely see the conceding streak continue versus a Red Bulls team who have just 1 loss and who have scored in 7/10.
The Red Bulls put 4 past Miami in New York as recently as March 23 with no Messi in the lineup, and also no Emil Forsberg, and in New York. Now it switches to Miami, with Messi and Forsberg and New York is out Noah Elie on defense through suspension.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score + Over 2.5 (-110)
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San Jose Earthquakes vs LAFC Prediction
The Quakes are MLS’ worst team right now. But for what it’s worth, a road team hasn’t won between these teams since 2020, a run of 9 games, and all-time home teams are 12-1-3. In those 16 games there have never been fewer than 2 goals and in 14/16 there’s been 3+.
The other trend is goals from both with BTTS going 6-0 and 10-1, and BTTS + Over 2.5 going 9-2.
Still, betting a San Jose win woud be tough to stomach. They drew another struggling team in Nashville last week, 1-1, but are 1–1-8. They held the Yotes to 1 goal. Why is that noteworthy? Because they had allowed 3, 3, and 4 goals in the 3 games prior and multiple goals in each of their other 9 games. Small victories.
LAFC is heating up being undefeated in 4 and with just 1 loss in 6, but their recent scores have been a 3-2 win, 2-2, 2-2, 2-1 win and 3-2 loss, so they can’t be trusted defensively right now.
Could new DP No. 10 Hernán López debut in a game to be played in the home of the 49ers this week at Levis Stadum?
We’ll see, but I do see goals. LAFC have generated the most shots on target and are 2nd in xG and as bad as San Jose has been defensively, they are tied for the 6th most shots on target and are 12th in xG.
This should be an LAFC win but they have the worst road record in the West at 0-1-3. But then San Jose is just bad overall. This could be BTTS or BTTS and Over 2.5 in the MLS picks.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
Real Salt Lake vs Sporting KC Prediction
Sporting KC have actually scored more goals than RSL, 18 compared to 17. That’s not a big difference, but there is a difference in the standings where RSL are 1st in the West and SKC 10th.
And the answer is obvious. SKC’s defense has collapsed late in games giving up leads left, right and center. Their 18 goals allowed is 3rd most in the West and tied for 3rd most overall too. They’ve given up 14 points from winning positions this season.
SKC lost away to Minnesota 2-1 last week, are winless in 4 and those other scores have been 3-3, 3-2 and 3-3. They had a 3-1 win, 3-2 loss and 2-1 win prior to that, meaning bets on BTTS + Over 2.5 have gone 7-0 of late.
It seems unlikely they don’t need to dig the ball out of the back of their net again on Saturday versus RSL who are undefeated in 6 and have scored in 8 of their past 9 games, and who have Chicho Arango in scorching hot form with 8 goals and 7 assists. That’s 2nd to only Messi in goals and goal contributions.
RSL have only given up 9 goals in 10 games and have clean sheets in 2/4 but have given up a goal in 7/10.
Last year we saw a 2-2 draw in Kansas City and a 3-2 SKC win in Salt Lake. We could see a goal from both again this the MLS Matchday 12 predictions.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC Prediction
3rd Vancouver hosts 7th Austin but they’re only 2 points apart.
Austin won last week and have 4 wins on the year and 4 in their past 5, but 3 have been at home. On the road they’re 1-1-2, scoring 1 goal only, but also only allowing 3.
Austin’s last 1-0 road win over Houston is their only road win in 11 and 4th in the last 26.
The Caps drew 1-1 in New York last week and have only 2 losses on the year in MLS. They’ve scored in all 9 MLS games and when you count CCC they’ve scored in 10/11 in all games.
Last year Vancouver won 2-1 in Vancouver and they drew 0-0 in Austin.
Only the Red Bulls have given up a lower xGA than Vancouver, while only New England and the Galaxy have given up a higher xGA than Austin. The Verde have also given up the most shots on target and attacking third touches. The Caps should get enough chances to win, and certainly to score.
- MLS Predictions: Vancouver to score
- Parlay Picks: SJ vs LAFC over 1.5 / RSL vs SKC both to score / VAN score (+119)
Atlanta United vs Minnesota United Prediction
Atlanta is an even 3-3-3 and after drawing Chicago 0-0 last week are now winless in 4. They did score in 3 of those 4 though and have done so in 6/9 and in all 5 home games this season, where they have all 3 of their wins and are 3-1-1. All of those games have seen goals in 4-1, 2-0, 3-0 wins, a 2-2 draw and 2-1 loss. Though they have failed to win the last 2 home games.
But Atlanta has only 4 home losses in the MLS since the start of last season and has scored in each game.
The Loons started undefeated in 4, then went winless in 3 and now have won 3-0 in their last road game versus Charlotte and then 2-1 last week at home to SKC. They’ve scored in 8/9, but conceded in 7/9 too.
If we look at O/U totals of 2.5, Atlanta is 4-5 to the Under. While Minnesota is just 5-4 to the Over. But lower that to O/U 1.5 and Atlanta is 7-2 and Minnesota 9-0 to the Over.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
Charlotte FC vs Portland Timbers
Charlotte’s 10 goals for rank right down there among the worst, only better than 3 teams.
But playing the Timbers could be an opportunity to change that. Portland’s 21 goals allowed are second-worst to San Jose’s 25. Their 16.9 xGA is tied for 4th worst and the 54 shots on target allowed is 3rd worst.
Portland has yet to keep a clean sheet this season in 10 games, are winless in 7 and have allowed multiple goals in 6 straight. They’ll be shorthanded this week with midfield stalwart Diego Chara suspended and Evander is questionable with an injury but has been practicing. He missed last week, but Portland still got 2 goals.
Those scorelines have read: 3-2 last week away to LAFC, 2-2, 2-2, 3-3, 3-2 and 3-1. The obvious trend is a boatload of goals with BTTS + Over 2.5 going 6-0 and then also 9-1 on the year. In fact, Portland has become the first team in MLS history to score multiple goals in five straight games and win none of them.
I can see that trend continuing here. The Crown are usually strong at home, but allowed Toronto to score 2 in a 3-2 win, and then Minnesota to score 3 in a 3-0 loss in their last 2 home games.
Last week they were on the road and lost 2-1 to NYCFC.
But that Minnesota home loss was a rare one, their first home defeat in MLS in 13 and just their second in 20.
These teams have never played eachother, and I can’t trust either to win, but do see a goal from both for this weekend’s soccer picks.
- MLS Predictions: Both to Score
NYCFC vs Colorado Rapids Prediction
After starting 1-0-4, the Pigeons are now undefeated in 5, 3-2-0 and have won three straight with scores of 2-1, 2-0, and 2-0. All of these last 4 games have been in New York and they’ll be at home again here.
At FBref, NYCFC have created 2.4, 2.5, 3.0 and 1.4 xG worth of chances over these four games.
Season-long, they’ve scored in all 6 home games, and have scored in 11/12 home games going back to last season.
The Rapids have been much improved and have just 1 loss in 5 games and have scored in 8/9 this season.
But have still conceded a goal in all but 1 game this season and that was versus last place San Jose. Go further back and they have just 2 clean sheets in their last 21 MLS games.
That San Jose clean sheet is also their only road clean sheet in 17 road MLS games.
- MLS Predictions: NYCFC to score
- Parlay Picks: ATL vs MIN over 1.5 / CHA vs POR both to score / NYCFC to score (+119)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
