MLS Predictions, Picks & Best Bets – MLS Matchday 11

Another weekend of MLS action is here for MLS Matchday 11 and it’s time to break down this weekend’s best bets and MLS predictions.

Last week was goals, goals, goals, as we saw 48 goals in 14 games, but none from the Dynamo, who allowed Austin to keep a road clean sheet and get a road win for the first time in forever. It was also the only loss among our 6 picks and parlays last week.

Philly comes off the bye this week, while St. Louis is the lone team off with all of the other 28 teams playing on Saturday.

Columbus played in Champions Cup this week on Wednesday and beat Monterrey 2-1, while the Canadian Championships started this week too. That saw Toronto playing Wednesday and winning 5-0 and Vancouver playing Tuesdsay and losing 1-0.

Let’s get into 9 games in 3 parlays for our MLS predictions for Matchday 11.

Austin FC vs LA Galaxy Prediction

With wins in 3/4 Austin is now 8th in the West. They’ll entertain the West’s top team the Galaxy who are also tied with Miami for the most points overall.

LA’s xG is 2nd, but LA’s xGA is 28th. Who’s xGA is 29th? Austin.

LA has given up the 4th most goals but it doesn’t matter wen they’re scoring 21, the 2nd most behind Miami. They’ve scored 7 across their last 2 games and multiple in 6/8, including 4 last week beating San Jose 4-3.

In the short history between these teams LA is 4-1-1. LA won 2-0 in LA and they drew 3-3 in Austin last year, while there’s been 2+ goals in 5 of the 6 games.

For LA, 17/18 Galaxy games have hit BTTS and 16/18 the BTTS + Over 2.5 has also hit. So let’s follow these trends. The only concern here is Austin has the lowest shots on target in the league but at home they have scored in 16 straight with 10 in their last 4 and multiple in 7/8.

Austin has given up the most shots on target while LA has given up the fourth most and has conceded in all but 1 game this season, so this looks like a good both teams to score game.

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score

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New England Revolution vs Inter Miami Prediction

It’s bottom of the East New England, 1-1-6, hosting top of the East Miami, 5-3-2.

Injuries keep piling up for Miami, and Diego Gomez got added to that list with an ankle injury from last week and he could be out for 6 weeks. They did make a new signing this week in attacking midfielder Matías Rojas, a free agent after last playing for Brazilian top-flight side Corinthians.

But can a team with just 5 goals in 8 games beat Miami? I’m not betting on it. The Revs lost 1-0 to Toronto last week and have just 1 win 9 in all comps and that was 1-0 at home to Charlotte.

Messi is coming off a 2 goal, 1 assist game and is 2nd in the Golden Boot race.

Miami have won back to back games 3-1 and 3-2 but have given up a goal in 11 straight in all comps. BTTS is 10-1 and BTTS and Over 2.5 is 9-2 in that time. And in all games this season there’s been 2+ in 14/14 Inter Miami games.

Home teams won last season, Miami 2-1 and New England 3-1. In the 6 meetings in this short head to head history, there’s been 2+ goals in 5/6 as well.

On top of the Miami injuries there is questions of if the likes of Luis Suarez, Messi and others will skip playing on the New England turf. 60,000 will be expected at Gillette Stadium so there will be a good atmosphere for the Revs to try and turn things around.

This is hard to bet not knowing if the stars for Miami will play. If they don’t New England certainly have a chance. So let’s just back 2+ goals for our soccer betting tips here.

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5

New York Red Bulls vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction

This could be one of the games of the weekend with New York, 2nd in the East hosting Vancouver, 2nd in the West. Both of the last two meetings were 2-2 but those came in 2019 and 2018.

Back to this year. New York was moments away from beating LAFC on the road before Denis Bouanga tied it up 2-2 in stoppage time last week. That makes them undefeated in 5 and 4-4-1 on the season. They were shut out playing a man down at home to Chicago in their last home game but scored 4 and 2 goals in their other two.

Vancouver benefitted from two Seattle red cards last week and won 2-0 and have wins in 3/4 and they’ve been perfect on the road winning all 3 road games.

They are missing Andres Cubas this week from suspension and New York has given up the 4th fewest goals and owns the top xGA. So let’s just ask the Red Bulls to score for our soccer picks and parlays here.

• MLS Predictions New York to Score
• Parlay Picks: AUS vs LA both to score / NE vs MIA over 1.5 / NYRB to score (+107)

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC Prediction

It’s not where you would have expected either of these teams to be to start the season, but it’s 12th Orlando, hosting 5th Toronto.

Orlando drew Montreal 2-2 with a late tying goal last week in stoppage time and after a slow start are now undefeated in 4 while scoring 8 goals.

Toronto beat another struggling team last week in New England, 1-0, but Orlando is on the upswing and Toronto has given up the 2nd most shots on target so Orlando should likely get chances and TFC don’t have the offense to go head to head.

Orlando won 4-0 and 2-0 last season and are 6-2-0 vs TFC in the last 8 head to heads.

Toronto had 0 road wins last year so travelling is not a place to bet them. In their last 26 road games in all comps they are … 1-5-20. Ouch.

Meanwhile Orlando has only failed to score at home once in 19 games and have only 3 losses in those 19 games.

• MLS Predictions: Orlando to win

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

It’s 6th Philly in the East hosting 3rd RSL from the West. This is a rare matchup between these teams with the last one coming in 2019. And while that game and many others prior featured plenty of goals, they’re all quite some time in the past.

Philly is still undefeated, while RSL’s Chicho Arango leads the Golden Boot race with 8 goals, while adding 6 assists. He had 2 goals and 2 assists last week and RSL beat down Chicago 4-0. They’re undefeated in 5 and have scored in 7/9.

Philly drew 2-2, away to Atlanta two weeks ago and are 4-6-1 in all comps, only failing to score in 2 games versus Pachuca in the Champions Cup. They’ve also only kept 2 clean sheets in those 21 games though.

Philly is rested and at home but RSL and Chicho are rolling. This should be a good game with goals from both for our MLS picks.

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score

Chicago Fire vs Atlanta United Prediction

13th Chicago hosts 7th Atlanta in this Eastern Conference matchup.

Atlanta has already beaten Chicago once this season 3-0 at home in March. Last year Atlanta won 2-1 in Atlanta and they drew 3-3 in Chicago.

Only once in the past 7 meetings have there not been 3+ goals between them and just twice in the 15 all-time meetings have their not been 2+.

Giorgos Giakoumakis and Xande Silva could return for Atlanta which could help them stop a 3-game winless slide. But Atlanta is not usually good on the road with just 2 road wins in their last 22 in all comps.

But Chicago looks bad and own the 4th worst xGA, while giving up the joint-second most goals, 18 in 9 games.

So I can’t trust either when trying to make MLS best bets for this game, but likely can trust there being at least 2 goals. Chicago is 8-1 to Over 1.5 and Atlanta is 7-1 this season.

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: ORL win / PHI vs RSL both to score / CHI vs ATL over 1.5 (+191)

Minnesota United vs Sporting KC Prediction

It’s 5th in the West Minnesota hosting 10th SKC on Saturday night.

SKC has blown 14 points from winning positions and have given up 3 goals in 3 straight games. Usually scoring 13 goals in 5 games would result in more than 5 points, but they’ve also given up 13 goals. And they have coughed up leads of 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 and 3-2 in that time.

Their recent scores have been 3-3, 3-2, 3-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-1 and their games average 3.7 GPM overall.

Minnesota snapped a 3-game winless slide with an impressive 3-0 road win in Charlotte latst week and they’re getting it done witbout Emanuel Reynoso and have scored in 7/8. At home they’ve scored in 7 straight and in 16/17 going back to last season.

There were three meetings last year with SKC sweeping the series winning 3-0, 1-0 and 3-1. SKC is now 4-1-0 in the last 5 versus the Loons, winning each of the past 4.

Minnesota will be looking to snap their poor form vs SKC but I’d rather just bet on goals.

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score

Nashville SC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Two struggling teams meet here with Nashville 14th in the East and San Jose 14th in the West and 29th overall.

San Jose has tied the record for allowing multiple goals in 9 straight games after losing 4-3 to the Galaxy last week. They’ve given up a league-worst 24 goals and multiple goals in every single game this season.

The Quakes made a move this week to try and turn things around making a club record signing for a reported $6 million for Argentine midfielder Hernán López from Godoy Cruz. That’s unlikely to change much this weekend though.

But they could have a chance versus Nashville. Nashville’s defense isn’t what it used to be, as they’re tied for 3rd worst xGA in all of MLS. They’re winless in 4, have 1 win in 9 and have given up multiple goals in 4 straight and 7/8.

There’s been three all-time meetings and all have been draws, 2-2 and 0-0 in 2022 and 1-1 last year in San Jose.

I can’t trust either of these teams to win, but Nashville should get on the scoresheet. They’ve scored in 6 straight at home and have 13 goals in those games.

• MLS Predictions: Nashville to score

LAFC vs Portland Timbers Prediction

7th LAFC hosts 11th Portland here. We just saw this matchup on April 13 with the teams drawing 2-2. That’s the 3rd time in 4 games BTTS & Over 2.5 has cashed and the 11th time in 13 games just BTTS has cashed between them. All of those 13 have seen 2+ goals and there’s been 2+ goals in 17/19 all-time meetings.

LAFC are off back to back 2-2 draws and with other recent scorelines of 2-1, 3-2 and 5-0, their games have been seeing goals.

Portland’s game have been wide-open and if you like goals, certainly some of the most entertaining. They’ve scored 18, but allowed 18 (28th) and have given up the 3rd worst xGA.

They too have back to back 2-2 draws, plus a 3-3 draw before that. And with 3-2 and 3-1 losses prior to that, BTTS & Over 2.5 has gone 5-0 and 8-1 this season. They are winless in 6 games, but have gotten goals from 8 different players with Evander and Felipe Mora leading with 4 each.

LAFC are 1st in xG and first in shots on target with 55, while Portland have the tied 3rd worst xGA.

This looks like a great BTTS bet at -150 at Caesars, or BTTS and Over 2.5 at -110 at Bet365 in the MLS Matchday 11 picks. Let’s round out the night though just asking for 2 goals from anyone.

• MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: MIN vs SKC both to score / Nashville to score / LAFC vs Portland over 1.5 (+118)