Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Matchday 3 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for the following games.
AFCON Schedule: Wednesday, December 31
- Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria
- Sudan vs Burkina Faso
- Gabon vs Ivory Coast
- Mozambique vs Cameroon
AFCON Picks
Here are today’s best bets for the Africa Cup of Nations in Groups E and F.
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria | Algeria double chance & under 2.5 | (-115) |
| Sudan vs Burkina Faso | Draw OR Burkina Faso double chance & under 2.5 | (+180 / -188) |
| Gabon vs Ivory Coast | Ivory Coast to win & Diallo 1+ shot on target | (+105) |
| Mozambique vs Cameroon | Cameroon double chance & under 2.5 | (-125) |
| Parlay Pick | Algeria double chance / Ivory Coast to score / Cameroon double chance & under 3.5 | (-112) |
Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria Preview
Equatorial Guinea (Nzalang Nacional / The National Thunder)
97th in FIFA Rankings.
Played 2 friendlies since WCQ ended and lost 2-0 (Madagascar) and won 1-0 (Kenya). Then started off AFCON with a loss, 2-1 Burkina Faso. Despite 3 goals in the game, it was nil-nil most of the way. Then Equatorial Guinea took a red in the 50′ minute, but still scored in the 85′. But they couldn’t hang on conceding twice in stoppage time in the 95′ and 98′ to lose 2-1.
On Sunday, they played a dull game vs Sudan which ended 1-0 for the Sudanese. The only goal was an own goal in the 74′ minute. It was Sudan’s only shot on target, while Equatorial Guinea had just 2. They lost of a couple of players to injury last game in Eneme and Obiang.
The Under 2.5 is 8-3 in their last 11 and only once in 15 have their been more than 3 goals in one of their games.
The last AFCON saw a breakout performance by captain Emilio Nsue who won the Golden Boot with 5 goals. However, this tournament, Nsue, their all-time scorer was an unused sub in Game 1 and in Game 2 only played 13 minutes.
Algeria (Les Fennecs / The Desert Foxes)
35th in FIFA Rankings.
They met Sudan on Matchday 1 and the game quickly went in their favor. Mahrez scored 1 minute in, Sudan took a red in the 39′, and Algeria added 2 more in he second half (another from Mahrez) to win 3-0.
It was tighter on MD2, with Mahrez’s 23′ PK standing up as the only goal in a 1-0 win over Burkina Faso. They only had 49% possession, were outshot 12-10, but led in shots on target 5-3. They did see Hadjam and Chergui leave injured last game.
Algeria lost to Sudan in the quarters of the Nations Championship in August and since then they’re 9-3-0 in regulation. Their only loss was in the Arab Cup quarters, drawing UAE 1-1 and losing in PKs.
Pick
It’s an even 1-1-1 between these teams and they’re all recent meetings—1-0 Equatorial in 2022 and 2-0 Algeria and 0-0 in 2024. Algeria knows they’re going through having already won the group with 6 points, sitting tops in Group E, while Equatorial Guinea is last with 0 points and even a win is not lift them to a 3rd place spot with both Burkina Faso and Sudan also on 3 points.
I expect Algeria to win. But there’s no need for them to push too hard. Surely some players will be rotated. They’ve shut out both opponents so far and Equatorial Guinea don’t score often. If Mahrez was to play, he’s scored 4 goals in his last 3 games for Algeria and is a solid player prop.
- AFCON Picks: Algeria double chance & under 2.5 (-115)
Sudan vs Burkina Faso Preview
Sudan (Falcons of Jediane)
118th in FIFA Rankings.
It was a tough start to this AFCON, conceding in the opening 2 minutes, being reduced to 10 men in the 39′ and going on to lose 3-0 to Algeria.
MD2 was much better, though only an own goal in the 74′ minute saw them get on the scoresheet in what turned out to be a 1-0 win. They only had 35% possession and 1 shot on target, despite 11 attempts.
They’re now 2-3-7 in regulation, and have scored only 2 goals in 5 games, while also being shut out in 8/11. The BTTS bet has only hit in 2/11 Sudan games.
Burkina Faso (Les Etalons / The Stallions)
62nd in FIFA Rankings.
Since the WCQ games ended, they played in 2 friendlies and won both, by 3-2 and 3-0 scores over Niger and Benin. Then they fought back to win on Matchday 1 in AFCON, 2-1 vs Equatorial Guinea. Despite being a man up from the 50′ minute on, they conceded in first and needed 2 stoppage time goals to win. All the goals in that game came late in the 85′, 95′ and 98′ minutes.
MD2, saw them keep it close vs Algeria, only conceding a PK in the 23′, while having slightly more possession and shot attempts, but came up short losing 1-0 to Algeria.
They’ve now won 4/5 in a row and are 6-1-1 in their last 8 overall games and have scored in 8/11.
Pick
They’ve only played each other once, and it was way back in 2012, a 2-1 Sudan win. This is one of those games where a draw may be perfect for both. Each have 3 points and have lost to 1st place Algeria. Burkina Faso are 2nd and Sudan 3rd based on goal-differential, but with Equatorial Guinea pointless, and based off of Group A and B’s results on Monday, both teams are safety through either in 2nd or 3rd. So this match doesn’t mean much outside of seeding.
The +180 odds for a draw tell you all you need to know. Those low odds point to a draw but it’s still risky. Alternatively, a tight game where Burkina Faso don’t lose is a solid play but may only be useable in a parlay.
- AFCON Picks: Draw (+180) OR Burkina Faso double chance & under 2.5 (-188)
Gabon vs Ivory Coast Preview
Gabon (The Panthers)
78th in FIFA Rankings.
Gabon had gone undefeated in 5 before losing to Nigeria in the WCQ Playoff game. It’s now 3 losses in a row though after losing to Cameroon on Matchday 1. Cameroon’s 6′ minute goal proved to be the only goal, despite a spirited Gabon comeback attempt that even saw Pierre-Emerick Abameyang return off the bench earlier than expected. Gabon had 12 shot attempts, but couldn’t break through . Bouanga had 3 shots but 0 on target and they lost 1-0.
MD2 was AFCON’s highest-scoring game and one that went back and forth vs Mozambique. Mozambique led 2-0 and 3-1 and eventually won 3-2. This, despite Gabon having 56% possession and leading in shots 15-12 and shots on target 10-5.
Gabon has firepower and has only failed to score twice in 14 games.
Ivory Coast (Les Elephants)
42nd in FIFA Rankings.
Current form: A 1-0 win on Matchday 1 got the champs off on the right foot with Amad Diallo scoring in the 49′ against Mozambique. They had 56% possession, and led in shots 15-3 and shots on target 5-2.
It was another close one on MD2. Diallo opened the scoring again to give Ivory Coast a 1-0 lead, but they conceded minutes later to go on to draw Cameroon 1-1. Ivory Coast had 51% possession, and led in shots 12-11, and shots on target just 2-1.
In their last 9 games they have only lost a friendly to Saudi Arabia 1-0. Oddly, win, lose, or draw, it’s rare that both teams score. The BTTS No is 14-1. The Under 2.5 is 10-2. Much of that is to do with the fact they’ve conceded 1 goal in 9 games and 2 in 13. Through 2 games they’ve also only allowed 4 shots on target against.
Pick
Ivory Coast owns a strong record vs Gabon at 10-4-4. But it was tight during their WCQ campaign with Ivory Coast winning 1-0 in 2024 and them drawing 0-0 in 2025 in September. Ivory Coast are 1st in Group F with 4 points, but they could still drop to 2nd or 3rd. Meanwhile, Gabon have been eliminated and are playing for pride. With 0 points, they’re 4th, and even a win won’t lift them to 3rd place to catch Mozambique who are now assured of moving on.
Ivory Coast, pushing for top spot in the group should be too strong for an out-of-sorts Gabon.
- AFCON Picks: Ivory Coast to win & Diallo 1+ shot on target (+105)
Mozambique vs Cameroon Preview
Mozambique (The Mambas)
102nd in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they hung around with the reigning champs, Ivory Coast and the game was tied until Ivory Coast scored early in the 2nd half. Mozambique did only muster 2 shots on target though. After that, their all-time winless run in AFCON was stretched to 16 games.
But that changed on MD2 vs Gabon, where they got goals from Bangal, Catamo (PK) and Calila and got their first-ever win, 3-2.
They have still though now only won 2/7 (Somalia) and also have only 3 wins in 11 and haven’t won back-to-back games since June 2024.
Sporting’s Geny Catamo could be involved in player props. On MD1 he had 5 crosses, 3 shots and both of the team’s 2 shots on target. On MD2, he had 5 shots, 3 on target, 1 goal and 1 assist.
Cameroon (The Indomitable Lions)
57th in FIFA Rankings.
Have only lost 2/19, Under 2.5 is 7-1 and BTTS rarely hits with the ‘No’ going 6-1 and 8-3.
All of those trends continued on Matchday 1 where Etta Eyong’s 6′ minute goal stood up as the only goal in a 1-0 win over Gabon. Man U’s Mbeumo had an assist, plus 1 shot/ 1 shot on target.
Most of those trends also continued on MD2 vs Ivory Coast (besides the BTTS trend). They conceded in the 51′ but tied it in the 56′ from an own goal and went on to draw Ivory Coast 1-1. The shots were minimal with Cameroon having 1 on target and Ivory Coast only 2.
Pick
Cameroon has dominated this head-to-head at 7-0-1 and that 1 loss was way way back in 1983. They haven’t met since 2021 WCQ, and Cameroon won 3-1 and 1-0. In 2020, they won 4-1 and 2-0. Cameroon are seeded 2nd in Group F with 4 points, but they have the exact same record and goal-differential to Ivory Coast. Mozambique sits 3rd, with 3 points, 3 above 4th place Gabon. They both could win the group, come 2nd or even 3rd. Both know they’re through, so it depends how much importance they place on seeding.
- AFCON Picks: Cameroon double chance & under 2.5 (-125)
AFCON Parlay Best Bet
For today’s parlay, let’s back Algeria not to lose, Ivory Coast simply to score and a low-scoring match where Cameroon doesn’t lose. With most of these teams qualified, it is hard to predict how seriously they each choose to take the final matchday.
- Picks: Algeria double chance / Ivory Coast to score / Cameroon double chance & under 3.5 (-112)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
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