Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Matchday 1 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for the following games.
AFCON Schedule: Wednesday, December 24
- Burkina Faso vs Equatorial Guinea
- Algeria vs Sudan
- Ivory Coast vs Mozambique
- Cameroon vs Gabon
AFCON Picks
Here are today’s best bets for the Africa Cup of Nations in Groups E and F.
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Burkina Faso vs Equatorial Guinea | Burkina Faso double chance & under 2.5 | (-134) |
| Algeria vs Sudan | Algeria to win & Amoura 1+ shot on target | (-134) |
| Ivory Coast vs Mozambique | Ivory Coast to win to nil | (-110) |
| Cameroon vs Gabon | Draw | (+190) |
| Parlay Pick | BF vs EG under 3.5 / Amoura 1+ shot on target / Ivory Coast win | (+112) or Under 3.5 (-109) |
Burkina Faso vs Equatorial Guinea Preview
Burkina Faso (Les Etalons / The Stallions)
62nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Came 2nd in their group at 3-1-2, scoring 10 and conceding 7.
In World Cup Qualifying: Also came 2nd in their group at 6-3-1, scoring 23 and allowing 8, but were not one of the top four best 2nd place teams so their journey came to an end.
In 2024 AFCON: Again were 2nd in their group, 1-1-1, in all low-scoring games 3GF/4GA. Lost to Mali in the Round of 16. This is a team that bounces between good and bad performances at the AFCON.
Current form: Since the WCQ games ended, have played in 2 friendlies and won both, by 3-2 and 3-0 scores over Niger and Benin. Now won 4 in a row and are 5-1-0 in their last 6 overall games and have scored in 7/9. Bertrand Traore of Sunderland is a player to watch.
Equatorial Guinea (Nzalang Nacional / The National Thunder)
97th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 2-2-2 but outscored 8-5.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were 5th in their group and outscored 15-8.
In 2024 AFCON: Won their group (ahead of Nigeria and Ivory Coast) at 2-1-0 and then lost 1-0 to Guinea in the Round of 16. The tournament also saw a breakout performance by captain Emilio Nsue who won the Golden Boot with 5 goals. They made the quarters in the tournament prior. A 4th-placed finish in 2015 on home soil is their best-ever finish.
Current form: Played 2 friendlies since WCQ ended and lost 2-0 (Madagascar) and won 1-0 (Kenya). The Under 2.5 is 7-2 in their last 9 and only once in 13 have their been more than 3 goals in one of their games.
Off the field, they’ve faced plenty of hurdles with suspensions that cost them points in WCQ qualifying, player strikes and and coaching changes.
Pick
Their last meeting was a 2023 friendly that was 0-0 and the other meetings were 0-0 and 1-0 Burkina Faso. With meetings between these teams usually tight, Burkina Faso in slightly better form and Equatorial Guinea usually playing in low-scoring games, let’s back Burkina Faso not to lose and Under 3.5 goals.
- AFCON Picks: Burkina Faso double chance & under 2.5 (-134)
Algeria vs Sudan Preview
Algeria (Les Fennecs / The Desert Foxes)
35th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Won their group at 5-1-0, outscoring opponents 16-2.
In World Cup Qualifying: They also won their group at 8-1-1 and outscoring opponents 24-8. Mohamed Amoura led all players in African qualifying scoring 10 goals to go with 4 assists. He’s got 5 with Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga and scored in each of his last 2 games before AFCON. Otherwise, Mahrez and Bounedjah have 33 an 35 goals for the nation in their careers.
In 2024 AFCON: Disappointed at 0-2-1 in the groups and not advancing and have now failed to get out of the group stage in back-to-back AFCONs. Last won it in 2019. But haven’t won a match in the event since.
Current form: Algeria lost to Sudan in quarters of the Nations Championship in August and since then they’re 7-3-0 in regulation. Their only loss was their most recent game in the Arab Cup quarters, drawing UAE 1-1 and losing in PKs. But we can go back further and see they’re unbeaten in regulation across all matches in 15. Last losing in 90 minutes in a friendly to Sweden in June (4-3). You’d have to go 28 games back in June 24 to find a regulation loss to an African opponent, 2-1 to Guinea in a WCQ match.
Sudan (Falcons of Jediane)
118th in FIFA Rankings and are playing on the backdrop of a civil war in their country where home games needed to played elsewhere.
In Qualifying: Were 2-2-2, 2nd in their group and outscored 6-4.
In World Cup Qualifying: DNQ, being 3rd in their group 3-4-3, but outscored opponents 8-6.
In 2024 AFCON: DNQ
Current form: Since that game with Algeria, they aren’t as strong at 1-3-7 in regulation. In the Arab Cup group stage they had a 0-0 draw, 2-0 loss and 3-1 loss. If you were looking for Sudan props, Mohamed Abdelrahman is their leading scorer with 23.
Pick
They’ve actually played twice recently. Once in December in the Arab Cup which ended 0-0 and once in August in the Nations Championship Quarterfinals which saw Sudan win in PKs after a 1-1 draw.
Despite the drastically different form, Sudan seems to push Algeria to the brink so this might be tougher to call than it looks on paper. For a lower payout, Sudan on the spread at +1.5 (-161) could be an option or a parlay leg. If you believe that the 3rd time is the charm for Algeria vs this opponent, then Algeria to win and Amoura to be involved is an option. A third straight draw between them would pay out at +310.
- AFCON Picks: Algeria to win & Amoura 1+ shot on target (-134)
Ivory Coast vs Mozambique Preview
Ivory Coast (Les Elephants)
42nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 4-0-2, outscoring opponents 12-3.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were almost perfect at 8-2-0, scoring 25 times and allowing 0. They and Tunisia were the only teams to not allow any goals.
In 2024 AFCON: Started slow and were only 3rd in their group but were one of the top 3rd place teams. Then got hot and went all the way to the final, beating Nigeria 2-1.
Current form: In their last 7 games they have only lost a friendly to Saudi Arabia 1-0. Oddly, win, lose, or draw, it’s rare that both teams score. The BTTS No is 13-0. The Under 2.5 is 8-2. Only 1/10 and 2/13 IVC games have seen more than 3 goals.
Some big player news is the Sebastian Haller injury. Haller scored the winner in the last tournament but recently sustained a hamstring injury in the Dutch league with Utrecht. Aston Villa’s Evan Guessand who has 0 goals in 11 EPL games.
Mozambique (The Mambas)
102nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 3-2-1, scoring 9, allowing 5.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were 6-0-4 but 3rd, so will miss out.
In 2024 AFCON: Were 0-2-1 and didn’t advance. They’ll be big outsiders to get past the groups and have never won a match at AFCON despite making improvements in recent years.
Current form: Have only won 1/5 and it was vs Somalia. Their last game was a 4-1 friendly loss to Angola. Also only 2 wins in 9. And they have conceded multiple goals in 5/8. Sporting’s Geny Catamo has 2 goals in Portugal and could be involved in player props.
Pick
Ivory Coast is 5-2-0 all-time and last won 3-0 in 2021. Given their superior current form and the fact they shut out all opponents in WCQ, let’s bet Cote d’Ivoire to win to nil.
- AFCON Picks: Ivory Coast win to nil (-110)
Cameroon vs Gabon Preview
Cameroon (The Indomitable Lions)
57th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 1st in their group at 4-2-0, outscoring opponents 8-2.
In World Cup Qualifying: Went 5-4-1, scoring 17, allowing 5 and finished 2nd. That sent them to the playoff where they lost 1-0 to DR Congo.
In 2024 AFCON: Went 1-1-1 to be 2nd in their group, and then lost 2-0 to Nigeria in the Round of 16.
Current form: Have only lost 2/17, Under 2.5 is 5-1 and BTTS rarely hits with the ‘No’ going 5-0 and 7-2.
This team is filled with drama heading into the tournament. Which team and which coach is showing up. President Samuel Eto’o gave manager Marc Brys the sack and has appointed David Pagou in charge. But Brys is apparently refusing the sack and has named his own squad for the tournament. Whoever shows up, Man U’s Bryan Mbeumo is a player to watch (and bet on) up top. He’s piled up a ton of shots and shots on target in recent games with Man U and had 4G/2A in WVQ. But you can also bet on Levante’s Karl Etta Eyong who has 6G/3A in Spain.
Gabon (The Panthers)
78th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in group at 3-1-2, but outscored 9-7.
In World Cup Qualifying: Went 8-1-1, scoring 22 and allowing 9. Were 1 of the best 2nd-place teams so made the playoffs but lost 4-1 to Nigeria.
In 2024 AFCON: DNQ
Current form: Had gone undefeated in 5 before losing to Nigeria in the WCQ Playoff game. Gabon has firepower and has only failed to score once in 12 games (Ivory Coast). Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Bouanga are sure to be involved if Gabon scores. The two had 7 and 8 goals respectively in WCQ. However, Aubameyang will miss at least the first game with an injury.
Pick
These teams have played tons of times with Cameroon being 12-10-3, but it’s been a while since they played back in 2017. The last 2 games were 1-0 Gabon in 2010 and 0-0 in 2017. This regional rivalry looks hard to split ans both are capable of both scoring and playing good defense, so lets back a draw.
- AFCON Picks: Draw (+190)
AFCON Parlay Best Bet
For a best bet parlay from the day, let’s back a tight match between Burkina Faos and Equatorial Guina, Amoura to get a shot on target no matter the Algeria result and the defending champs to open with a win.
- Picks: BF vs EQ under 3.5 / Amoura 1+ shot on target / Ivory Coast win (+112). Alternatively the under 3.5 in the IVC game would change this parlay to (-112).
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
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