You would’ve made some good coin if you picked expansion side San Diego to be the West’s #1 seed prior to the start of the season. But Anders Dreyer’s 37 goal involvements and Chucky Lozano’s 20 paced them to a 19-6-9 record. However, the big talking point here is Lozano’s possible exclusion form the squad this weekend. He had a heated disagreement with head coahc Mikey Varas after getting subbed off in a game before the international break. He was left off the lineup in the last game and that could still be the case for Game 1.
The one downside to getting home field advantage is SDFC are actually better on the road (37 pts) than they are at home (26 pts). In fact, their 12-1-4 road record is tops in MLS.
San Diego has been a little off in recent weeks with only 3 wins in 7, but they’ve also only lost twice in 10 games and ended the year with 4-2 and 4-0 wins.
And that 4-0 Decision Day win came against this Portland team. So this is a quick rematch. In that game, 2 goals each from Pellegrino ans Dreyer got them the easy win. When they met in the first meeting in San Diego though, that one ended 0-0. Only twice in 14 have San Diego not scored, but they’ve conceded in 5/6.
Portland needed the Wild Card on Wednesday to get here. They met RSL and looked better than they have in weeks. They took a 2-0 lead, saw it cut to 2-1 and went on to win 3-1 backed by a brace from Mora. That was Portland’s first win after 5 games winless and only their 2nd in 12. But, they have drawn a ton of games with 4 draws in 9. Prior to Wednesday, they had been shut out in back-to-back games.
Let’s go back to the fact that San Diego is usually better on the road. But focus on the GPG. San Diego road games average 3.7 GPG, the most in the West. While their home games average 2.5, the second-fewest in the West and the third-fewest in all of MLS. Then consider Portland’s road games average 2.2 GPG, the lowest in the West and second-lowest overall.
If you think this will be close to the first meeting between them and lower-scoring, there are lots of Under options that are playable. Under 2.5 is +150, Under 3.5 is -163 and even Undfer 4.5 could be a parlay leg at -400.
Surely Dreyer will have a hand in some way. Him to get a goal or assist is -225, or a shot on target is -500. He’s scored 2 goals in 3 straight games, twice in MLS and also with Denmark. For shots, he has at least 1 in 6 straight and 10/11.
On the Portland side, summer signing Kristoffer Velde has been a good shot prop target with 1+ in 8 straight, (12 total).
- MLS Picks: Under 3.5 and Dreyer 1+ shot on target (+105)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
