Philly topped all teams in MLS this season on their way to winning the Supporters’ Shield. They were 20-6-8 with 66 points, just 1 above Cincy and Miami. Their 57 goals was among the top-10, while giving up only 35 was a league-best. Tai Baribo easily is the main man up top with 16 goals, but they’re more of an offense by committee getting goals from 18 different players this season and multiple from 11. But, they’re missing a key piece with playmaker Quinn Sullivan lost to an ACL injury.
The Union only lost once at home this year going 12-4-1 and outscoring opponents 36-15.
Decision Day saw Philly lose 2-0 away to Charlotte, though the game meant little for them. Prior to that, they had won 1-0, 6-0, and 1-0. They have clean sheets in 5/8.
Reaching the Wild Card was huge for Chicago and now they’re into the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2017. On Wednesday, they hosted Orlando and were the better team from start to finish getting 2 goals from Cuypers, another from Gutierrez and only conceding at the very end to win 3-1. They amassed 22 shots and 10 on target.
The Fire are one of the hottest teams. They come into Sunday’s game on a 4-2-0 run where they’ve scored multiple goals in every game and outscored opponents 17-8, but BTTS & Over 2.5 is 4-0, so they’ve also been conceding.
Go further back and they’ve only lost twice in 14 games. They’ve only failed to score once in 18 games. But … that one time came against this opponent when they lost 4-0 to Philly in August. Philly also won 1-0 earlier in the season and Chicago have only won 1/7 vs the Union.
With Philly, Supporter’s Shield winners being at home and owning the top defense, they’re rightfully favored. But Fire games have been known to get wild. Only the 4.0 GPG in Miami games was more than the 3.8 in Chicago games. And Chicago road games specifically were even more high-scoring at 4.6, far and away more than anyone else (3.9 for Miami is 2nd).
With 3 of the top 16 scorers overall, we could see goals here. Baribo has 16 for Philly, but Cuypers (17) and Zinckerngael (16) have been dangerous all season. Cuypers and Zinckernagel have a shot on target in 6/8. Zinckernagel’s combined 30 goals contributions is 6th in all of MLS. Baribo has cooled off though. He hasn’t scored in 6 games and had 0 shots on target in 5 games until having 3 on Decision Day.
BTTS (-188) in Fire games is always in play, but they’ve not scored vs Philly this season.
- MLS Picks: Philadelphia moneyline (-120)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
