There are just 5 MLS games this weekend during the international break before Decision Day on October 18. We have 4 games on Saturday and 1 on Sunday.
Two teams played midweek with LAFC and TFC playing Wednesday and LAFC won 2-0. Let’s get into this weekend’s MLS best bets.
Miami vs Atlanta Prediction
Both teams have a ton of international call-ups. For Atlanta, the likes of Almiron, Slisz, Miranchuk, Lobjanidze and a total of 8. But Miami are also out Allen, De Paul, Fray, Segovia, and maybe even Messi. He’s called up to Argentina but it’s unsure if he’ll play and Argentina is only playing friendlies in the USA. Falcon is also suspended.
Miami blew away New England last week 4-1. But they’ve run out of time to catch Philly for the Supporters’ Shield. They will want to hold onto their top 4 spot or move up to 2nd.
Atlanta are a woeful 14th, but almost held on vs LAFC last week being tied 0-0 until a late late Bouanga winner. In their 1-0 loss to LAFC, Atlanta took three shots – all outside the box – and registered just 0.07 xG, the lowest mark in team history per the FBref database
Their horrible road form continues where they’re 1-5-10 and outscored 30-9.
You can’t bet on Atlanta on the road. Though they have been a little more competitive lately. Any Miami game is likely to turn into a shootout. Lately, their scores have been 5-3 and 4-1.
The BTTS bet for Miami is now recently 25-7 across their past 32 overall matches. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 15-5. Miami has just 3 clean sheets in their past 32 overall matches as well. But they’ve scored in 17/21 since the CWC.
Messi is in the hunt for the Golden Boot, but last week had 3 assists. A lot rides on his participation for this bet. Both teams are missing a ton of pieces. It could also be the last home game for Alba and Busquets if they don’t finish top 4.
- MLS Picks Today: MIA win (-250) or over 1.5 (-300) in a parlay
Orlando vs Vancouver Prediction
Some key absentees include Brekalo, Caraballo, Freeman, and Pasalic for Orlando and Ahmed, Cabrera, Cubas and Nelson for Vancouver.
Orlando are 7th. They can move into the top 4 and also drop to 8/9th and the play-in series. They could only draw Columbus 1-1 last week, the current 9th-placed team.
I probably should’ve bet the BTTS last week in the Orlando game instead of taking them to win. However, the Crew had tons of injuries and it was uncertain if Rossi would play. He did, but didn’t score. Sometimes it’s better to make these bets once you see the lineups.
Orlando haven’t lost in 4 games but they’ve drawn 3 of them. BTTS in Orlando games usually cash. It’s 19-1 in all comps of late. That’s a hard trend to ignore. The only game that didn’t hit was in the playoffs of the Leagues Cup vs Toluca (0-0)
Vancouver won the Canadian Championship 4-2, then scored 4 again in routing San Jose 4-1 last week. They’re 2nd in the West but tied on 60 points with San Diego so can still win the conference. They’ll be top 4 but can slide to 4th.
The Caps haven’t lost in 7 and it’s 8 if counting the Canadian Championship. They’ve scored multiple goals in 6/7, but have conceded in 4 straight. Muller is in form, Gauld is back from injury, but White is still a question mark.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS (-200) or Draw (+260)
- Parlay Picks: Miami over 1.5 / ORL vs VAN btts (+100)
Seattle vs RSL Prediction
Seattle is missing Baker-Whiting, Nouhou, Cristian Roldan and Vargas, but RSL has 7 away too including star Diego Luna.
Seattle are 5th and can’t move into the top 4, but could drop a little in the final games. After going 4 games without a win after winning Leagues Cup, they edged past Cascadia rival Portland 1-0 last week. The Sounders have now scored in 8 straight. Those previous 4 games though had scores of 2-2, 3-1, 2-1 and 2-2.
The game will mean much more to RSL who are 9th, in the final play-in spot. With 40 points and 2 games left they can move all the way 6th, but can also be knocked down by either Colorado (40 pts) or San Jose (38). They’ll clinch the playoffs with a win.
RSL also had a 1-0 win last week over Colorado, giving them back-to-back wins. They too had a low-scoring game, after previous scorelines were 3-1, 2-1, 4-1, 4-1, 3-1.
Way back in March, RSL won 2-0 in Utah. RSL have had success vs Seattle in recent seasons being 3-2-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- MLS Picks Today: Draw (+300)
LA vs Dallas Prediction
Dallas have been relatively spared, so too has LA, but LA has a huge missing piece with Paintsil called up. Reus is also injured. Pec played in the Campeones Cup but not last week. I can’t find any news of an injury.
Dallas is in a similar spot sitting 8th with 41 points. They can move to 6th, or still drop out of the playoffs entirely. They can clinch the playoffs with a win.
Meanwhile the Galaxy are dead-last in MLS playing out the stretch.
Oddly, these teams just played last week, in Dallas, a 2-1 Dallas win. LA scored just 4 mins in, but Dallas scored twice before half and that held up as the final score. This one switches to LA.
LA always concede. They’ve done so in 35/39 overall matches this season. They also often score, doing so in 29/39 and in 10/11. Their last scoreline in recent weeks have been: 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 4-1, 3-2 and 2-1.
While LA has only won 1/6 recent games, Dallas comes in with solid form. They’re undefeated in 8 (3-5-0) and have won 3/4. Their games too have seen goals, with BTTS 6-1, they’ve scored in 11 straight, and they’ve conceded in 14/16.
Only 1 time in 16 meetings has there not been at least 2 goals in a game with these teams.
LA will want to avoid becoming the first-ever “MLS Cup to Wooden Spoon” winner.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS & Over 2.5 + Musa 1+ shot on target (-120) he’s had a shot on target in 5 straight and 9/11 and 18 goals on the year
Austin vs LAFC Prediction
Here’s the one Sunday game. LAFC played Wednesday without Bouanga and Son vs Toronto and still came out on top with goals from Ebobisse and Amaya for a 2-0 win. The previous 18 LAFC goals had all been scored by Bouanga and Son.
They’ll be away again when they meet Austin. LAFC are 3rd and can still win the West being just 1 point back. They’re on a torrid run of for with only 1 loss 13 and 6 straight wins where they’ve outscored opponents 18-4, with clean sheets in each of their past 3.
The Verde are 6th. They can move to 5th or still drop entirely out of the playoff picture. They’re not in good form having lost 3-1, 2-1 and 3-1 in MLS, while also losing 2-1 in the USOC Final.
Austin too has some key missing pieces in Cascante, Pereira, Svatok and Uzuni. Uzuni is their top scorer but only with 6 goals.
This is yet another team with many goals in their games. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 6-0. Go further and it’s 11-2 and BTTS alone is 12-1. They’ve conceded in 13 straight.
Back in March it was 1-0 Austin in LA and the match has been lower scored with Under 2.5 going 4-0 of late.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS and Ebobisse sot (+115) (he had 2 shots on target and goal last game)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
