MLS Week 14 kicks off on May 17-18, with 15 games over Saturday and Sunday for MLS Rivalry Week. This week I have a bit of everything with 9 games, 4 parlays, winners, both teams to score, and unders fo the weekend MLS predictions.
MLS Picks & Parlays #1
Montreal vs Toronto Prediction
At 1.8 GPG Montreal’s games see the lowest average GPG in the league. Toronto’s aren’t much higher at 2.1.
CF Montreal are 9-4 to U2.5 and 12-1 to U3.5.
TFC are also 9-4 to U2.5 and 11-2 to U3.5.
The teams just met in the Canadian Championship and Toronto led 2-1 until Montreal tied it in the 86’ and went on to win in PKs.
The Canadian Classique does often see goals with 3+ in 5/7.
But the way these teams are playing in 2025 it looks hard to repeat. Montreal has scored the fewest goals with only 7 in 13 MLS games which is damn hard to do. Next up … is TFC, tied with the LA Galaxy with only 10 goals.
Combined they have 3 wins (2 TFC and 1 MTL). Despite how bad they’ve been, neither rarely gets blown out and at least keep games close, both allowing 17 goals in 13 (1.3 GPG).
- MLS Predictions: Under 3.5
NYCFC vs NYRB Prediction
The Hudson River Derby isn’t usually high-scoring except for one 5-1 NYC win last season. The other two scores last year were 2-1 and 2-0. In the last 8, the Under 2.5 is 6-2. In the last 12 it’s 9-3. Push that to 3.5 and the Under is 11-1 and 16-2.
This season NYC is 8-5 to U2.5 and 11-2 to U3.5. NYC’s game’s are tied for the 4th-lowest average GPG at 2.1.
The Red Bulls are 8-5 to Over 2.5 but 10-3 to U3.5. NYRB’s games average 2.7 GPG.
NYC haven’t won in 3 games with a two 1-0 losses and a 0-0 draw last week. There’s been 0 or 1 goal in each of their past 5 games.
NYRB lost 2-1 last week but had won 7-0 and 4-1 in games prior, and lost 4-1 before that. While their games have been higher scoring they’ve also battered weak defenses like Colorado and the LA Galaxy. Away in Nashville Wednesday they had only 2 shots on target and remain winless on the road with only 3 goals scored.
This rivalry should be tighter.
If we pair the Under 3.5 together between these 2 games we’re only around -150 odds. So let’s add NYC’s Alonso Martinez to have a shot. He’s scored 6 goals on the year but none in his past 3 MLS games. But look at shots. He’s had 39 attempts, 21 on target, multiple shots on target in 3 straight games and at least 1 in every single game.
- MLS Predictions: Under 3.5
- Parlay Picks: Montreal vs Toronto U3.5 / NYC vs NYRB U3.5 + Martinez 1+ shot on target (+112)
MLS Picks & Parlays #2
Atlanta vs Philadelphia Prediction
Philly came close to being the first team to lose to the Galaxy this season falling behind 2-0 at half on Wednesday before storming back to win 3-2 with Tai Baribo scoring a brace and netting the late winner in the 96’.
The Union are undefeated in 6, winning 5 and outscoring opponents 14-6. The BTTS is 4-0 in their past 4.
The Five Stripes continue to underachieve. Wednesday’s 1-1 draw with Austin where they only drew level in the 92’ minute extends their winless streak to 7 games in all comps to go with only 1 win in 12. They’ve conceded in 10 straight. While the offense is way off of expectations, they’ve at least scored in 3 straight after being shutout in 3 straight before that.
They just played April 19 and Philly won 3-0. Each of Quinn Sullivan, Jean Jacques and Tai Baribo scored.
Last year it was 2-2 and 1-1. The season before was 3-2 Philly.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
New England vs San Jose Prediction
The big storyline is Bruce Arena coaching against his old team. Now with San Jose after years with New England.
New England stayed undefeated drawing Orlando 3-3, but their run of 4 straight shutouts in MLS ended. Overall, they’re 5-1-0 in their past 6 when you count the USOC.
San Jose comes in hot too with a 4-1 win in MLS, a 2-1 USOC win, a 2-0 MLS win and then a 3-3 draw vs Inter Miami on Wednesday. The Quakes’ story all season has been a top offense and poor defense. They’ve kept just 2 clean sheets in 14 overall games. They’ve scored the most goals while allowing the 4th-most.
While Martinez looks to be coming back from injury, Arango left on Wednesday with an injury of his own. Most San Jose games see goals at both ends, but they could be out some players and there’s the Arena factor. Let’s just ask the Revs to score in the parlay.
- MLS Predictions: New England to score
Charlotte vs Chicago Prediction
Charlotte has lost 4/5 with only an extra-time win in the USOC in that time. They’ve lost their past 3 in MLS 2-1, 3-1 and 4-2 but all on the road. They’ll return home to the Bank where they’re much better, at 5-0-1, scoring 13 and allowing only 3.
Chicago is actually better on the road than at home, with 3/4 wins this season being on their travels. However they’ve conceded in 10/12 MLS games and all road games.
Charlotte took both meetings last year 1-0 and 4-3 and are 4-1-0 in the last 5 winning each of the last 4.
Charlotte had won 9 straight home MLS games til they lost to New England on April 26.
- MLS Predictions: Charlotte to score
- Parlay Picks: Atlanta vs Philadelphia BTTS / New England to score / Charlotte to score (+112)
MLS Picks & Parlays #3
Nashville vs DC United Prediction
Nashville has been taking advantage of a slew of home games and have won 3 straight, all at home. They’re 4-1-0 in 5 and the 1 draw came on the road.
DC has won just twice in MLS this season and their recent games have been a 2-0 road loss to Toronto and 0-0 home draw with NYCFC on Wednesday in a game where Benteke left with a sprained ankle and will be out for a few weeks. Maybe no team is more reliant one 1 player.
In road games this season they’re 1-1–4 and have been outscored 18-6 while being shut out in each of their last 2.
Last year’s games were high-scoring and DC wins, with United winning 2-1 and 4-3.
Given current form, Nashville having the most home points in MLS and no Benteke, I’ll back the Yotes to take this one.
- MLS Predictions: Nashville to win
Minnesota vs St. Louis Prediction
St. Louis drew rivals SKC 2-2 on Wednesday, thus extending their winless streak in MLS to 9 games. The offense has been poor all season. They were getting by on defense but have now allowed multiple goals in 4 straight MLS games. Only a 2-0 home win over Union Omaha in the USOC is their only win since mid-March.
Minnesota lost away to Houston 2-0 on Wednesday, but have won 3 straight prior and had only 1 loss in 12 games before Wednesday and to Vancouver. They have also kept clean sheets in 4/7.
The Loons won both meetings last year 3-1 and 4-1. There’s been 2+ goals in each of the last 5.
- MLS Predictions: Minnesota to win
- Parlay Picks: Nashville to win / Minnesota to win (+132)
MLS Picks & Parlays #4
Onto Sunday.
Miami vs Orlando Prediction
These rivals are separated by just 1 points with Miami 5th in the East with 22 points and Orlando 6th with 21.
The Herons drew San Jose Wednesday night 3-3, meaning they’re just 1-1-4 in their past 6, maybe the worst stretch of games since Messi and friends arrived.
Last year Miami won 5-0 in Miami and they drew 0-0 in Orlando. They had a friendly back in February which was 2-2.
The last 5 Miami games have seen scorelines of 4-3, 3-1, 4-1, 4-1 and 3-3. It seems simple, but the go-to bet has to be goals in Herons games. The talent they put out on the field can always score, but right now defense is optional. While Luis Saurez has been out for 2 games, Tadeo Allende stepped up with a brace with the Quakes. Saurez, out for personal reasons, could possibly return.
On the other end, Orlando is in the form of their lives having not lost in any competition in 11 games. They have a bunch of draws in there at 5-6-0, but have kept 6 clean sheets as well. Recently, their games have opened up a bit though at 3-3 and a 3-1 win Wednesday over Charlotte.
With 4 goals in his last 2 games and a hat-trick last week, Martin Ojeda is the guy to look at for Lions’ player prps.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
LA vs LAFC Prediction
Usually it never matters where these teams are in the standings, it always turns into a wild matchup and one packed with goals.
Last year LAFC won 2-1 and 2-1 and then the Galaxy won 4-2.
The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 10-1, the BTTS is 13-1 and there’s been at leaat 2 goals in every single historical match of which there’s been 24 between them. In fact, there’s been 3+ in 19/24 too.
Right now, LAFC are 5th in the West with 21 points, while the Galaxy are dead-last in all of MLS and setting all kinds of horrendous records with the longest streak of winless games (13) to start an MLS season ever. Despite that, head coach Greg Vanney just got a vote of confidence from management, signing a new contract extension.
LAFC are clearly the more in-form side having not lost 6 matches, outscoring opponents 15-8, scoring multiple goals in all 6 games and winning 4-0 over a strong Seattle team Wednesday. You could poke some holes in their defensive play as they’ve conceded in 6/8 and multiple on 3/5.
It’s all bad for the Galaxy. In all comps they have 1 win in 17 and that was 13 games back in March in the CCC. Currenrly, it’s 5 straight losses where they’ve been outscored 16—5 and 10-2 in their past 2. On Wednesday they jumped out to a 2-0 lead over Philly only to collapse in the second half and concede the winner in the 96’.
I saw this on MLS.com which further illustrates how bad LA have been. “Both American Soccer Analysis (going back to 2013) and FBRef (going back to 2018) have this year’s Galaxy as the worst MLS team in their respective databases.”
They even lost last weekend without giving up a shot attempt.
Puig has been a longterm injury, but without Paintsil and Pec there’s not much less. Cuevas and Fagundez did step up with goals vs Philly. Perhaps we see some of the double Ps this weekend, but it’s hard to say.
LAFC should win, but it’s El Traffic so you never know. We could also look to Bouanga to boost up this parlay. Only Hany Mukhtar has more shots on target than Bouanga. He’s had at least 1 in 6 straight games for a total of 17 and 6 goals in those games so he’s heating up.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: Miami vs Orlando BTTS / LA vs LAFC O1.5 (-115)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
