Champions League Predictions Matchday 7

The Champions League group stage is winding down and we’ve reached Matchday 7 with 2 rounds to go as we have many teams and many big teams still fighting to advance to the next round. This week I have 8 games to cover for my Champions League predictions.

Tuesday Champions League Picks and Parlays #1

Atalanta vs Sturm Graz Prediction

Atalanta may be near the top of Serie A, but they’re only 13th in the UCL, but then have only 1 loss at 3-2-1. That 1 loss was last game though 3-2 to Real Madrid. That equals more than half of the total goals they’ve allowed all tournament, giving up just 4.

It’s looking unlikely Graz can advance, being 29th at 1-0-5 and 5 points back of the final spot to advance and 2 games left. 

Atalanta had been missing top scorer Mateo Retegui who was injured, while Sturm Graz just sold their top scorer in Mike Biereth to Monaco for $13 million. Biereth had 11 goals for Sturm, next in line in Kiteishvili with 6 goals. 

But Mateo Retegui has returned and scored this weekend vs Napoli, albeit in a 3-2 loss. He also scored in 1-1 draw with Juve last week. Still, La Dea haven’t won in 5 matched which is concerning.

Graz are 1st in Austria, and Biereth was the leading scorer in the league. With the Austrian Bundesliga on their winter break, Sturm could be rusty and are 1-1-2 in friendlies during the break.

These teams actually met in the UEL Group Stage last season with a 2-2 draw in Austria and 1-0 Atalanta win in Italy. This time should be another La Dea win. If Sturm Graz do win, it would be the first win for an Austrian team over a Serie A side in the UCL ever, a run of 14 games (0-3-11). 

• Champions League Picks: Atalanta to win

Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction

2nd place Barcelona at 5-0-1 could still top the 36-team field, just 3 points back of 1st placed Liverpool. 

Benfica could still move up into the top 8 and fall out of the top 24. They’re 3-1-2 and 15th. 

Both are coming off of big Cup title wins. Benfica beat Sporting in the Taca da Liga Final, then beat Farense in the Taca de Portugal and then back in the league Friday they won 4-0. So it’s 4 straight wins in all comps, only 2 losses in 15, only 5 losses in any match this season and only 3 times in 29 overall matches have they not scored.

So Benfica will have 1 extra day of rest. They will be missing co-leading scorer Angel Di Maria who is injured. He and Kerem Akturkoglu both have 5 goals in the Portugal season. 

Barcelona routed rivals Real Madrid 5-2 in the Supercopa de Espana Final, won again the Copa del Rey 5-1 over Betis and ten played Getafe in the league on Saturday and could only draw 1-1 and lost Dani Olmo to injury.

In La Liga Barca is now winless in 4 with only 1 win in 8, their worst run of form in LA Liga ever, but overall are undefeated in 5 and only twice all season in all comps have they failed to score. 

The simple route in this parlay could be betting Barca to score and over 1.5 in a SGP, or Over 2.5 or just BTTS.

• Champions League Picks: Both Teams to Score

Monaco vs Aston Villa Prediction

Villa have been strong. 8th in the EPL and 5th in the UCL at 4-1-1, scoring 9 and allowing just 3.

Monaco are 16th at 3-2-1 in the UCL.

It’s been the opposite for totals bets. Monaco’s UCL games averaging 3.7 GPG and being 5-1 to the Over. 

Villa’s have averaged just 2.0, among the lowest and they’re 4-2 to the Under, keeping clean sheets in 4/6.

Monaco, just brought in Sturm Graz’s top scorer in Mike Biereth but he can’t join until the group stage ends so will be no help here.

On Friday they played last-placed Montpellier who had only 2 wins and lost 2-1. Les Monegasques are winless in 4 in all comps, have 1 win in 8 and have conceded in 7/8 and 11/13.

Villa drew Arsenal 2-2 this weekend and are 8th in the EPL. It’s 5 games undefeated in all comps, only 3 losses in 14 and they’ve scored in 10/11.

Monaco has not won in 2025 yet and just lost to Ligue’s 1 worst side. I could see a Villa win, BTTS or simply Villa to score. Monaco have conceded in 5/6 UCL games only shutting out Bologna and have given up 3 in back-to-back vs Arsenal (3-0) and Benfica (3-2).

• Champions League Picks: Aston Villa to score
• Parlay Picks: ATA to win / BEN vs BAR btts / AV to score (+116)

Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

11th Atletico is hosting 4th Bayer Leverkusen. Leverksuen have only allowed 5 goals while scoring 12.

Atleti’s UCL games have been full of goals, scoring 14 and allowing 10. Atleti’s game have averaged 4 GPG, all 6 have gone Over 2.5, the BTTS & Over has gone 4-2 and the goal totals have been 3, 4, 4, 3, 6 and 4. 

Atleti were scorching hot winning 15 straight, and outscoring opponents 39-8 and had clean sheets in 4/5. Until they met Leganes this weekend and lost 1-0. They hit the crossbar twice, post once, Griezmann missed a PK and they missed a point-blank chance in the final seconds. So the streak came to an end. Atleti’s last home loss was back on October 23 to Lille in the UCL. At home they only have 4 losses in any comp going back to January 2023. So betting against them at home is rarely a good bet.

But then Leverkusen are also one of the hottest teams in Europe. After beating Gladbach 3-1 this weekend, they’ve won 11 straight in all comps outscoring opponents 30-8. They’re undefeated in 12 and in all comps this season have only 2 losses in 28 games. 

The last time they met in the 2022 UCL it was 2-0 Leverkusen in Germany and 2-2 in Spain. 

With 2 teams in superb form, I don’t know how to split this. They’ve both been good offensively and defensively so this could be a good BTTS (-120) game, or an Under 2.5 (-130), Under 3.5 in a parlay (-340) or a draw (+230). 

• Champions League Picks: Draw

Wednesday Champions League Picks and Parlays #2

RB Leipzig vs Sporting Prediction

Leipzig has been atrocious in the UCL losing all 6 games by a 13-6 margin and have conceded in every game,

Sporting have dropped each of their past 2 UCL games losing 5-1 and then 2-1 to Arsenal and Club Brugge. But overall Sporting is right middle of the pack at 17th with 10 points so can still move up to the automatic advancing spots or fall completely out of the top 24.

With 0 points, RBL are eliminated. 

Overall RBL is 5th in Germany and drew 3-3 with lowly Bochum this weekend. The good is that they scored 3 goals without two top strikers suspended. The bad, is they were up 3-0 21 minutes into the game and coughed it up to draw. They’ve not only won 4 of 14 overall matches, have conceded in 6 straight a total of 16 goals, have only 3 clean sheets in 17 and the BTTS & Over 2.5 is on a 6-0 run.

After 4 straight losses last month Sporting has rebounded with only 1 loss (the Taca da Liga Final vs Benfica) in their past 8 games. Only twice in 31 games all season have they not scored and with Gyokeres in the lineup, running away with the Portuguese scoring title, and scoring 5 UCL goals this term, you’d always expect Sporting to score. 

I like the BTTS or just Sporting to score. 

• Champions League Picks: Sporting to score

Feyenoord vs Bayern Munich Prediction

Feyenoord are 3-1-2, 10 points in 18th.

Bayern Munich are 4-0-2, with 12 points in 10th, putting just outside of the automatic qualification spots. 

For totals bets, both have seen high-scoring UCL games, Feyenoord at 4.8 GPG, the most while being 6-0 to Over 2.5 and even 6-0 to Over 3.5. Bayern’s games have averaged 4.2 GPG but they’re an even 3-3 to 2.5 totals.

Feyenoord is slipping in the Netherlands drawing this weekend, winless in 3 and 4th in the Eredivisie. But overall they’ve only lost twice in 12 games in all comps and failed to score once in 14. But it’s 10 straight without a clean sheet. Recent goal totals have been 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 4 and 5.

Bayern beat Wolfsburg this weekend 3-2, are 1st in Germany, have only lost twice in 16 and in their last 7 goal totals in games have been 5, 5, 1, 6, 3, 6 and 6. 

Feyenoord have a ton of midfield injuries which will make this tough to slow down Bayern, but are healthy up top. Both have seen a ton of goals in recent games and I see that continuing. 

• Champions League Picks: Over 2.5

Real Madrid vs FC Salzburg Prediction

This should be Madrid route and at -1600 moneyline odds that is expected so we need to get creative. 

Madrid have been scoring for fun scoring multiple goals in 11 straight games, 3+ in 9/11 and on the weekend beating Las Palmas 4-1. Mbappe had a brace and almost a first-half hat-trick before VAR called it off. 

But a 5-2 Super Cup Final blowout loss to Barca and needing extra-time to get past Celta Vigo 5-2 in the Copa del Rey, were not good results. 

This is a bigger game than would have been expected for Real at this point. They’re only 20th at 3-0-3 and may not even advance as a top 24 team. 

They’ll be coming out strong and should easily beat Salzburg who are all but eliminated with 3 points at 1-0-5 while being outscored 18-3, sitting in 32nd. 

In Austria, Salzburg are 5th and have been off for a month on winter break. They’ve lost both friendlies during the time off and in competitive games are in poor form with only 2 wins in 8 to end 2024. Pep Lijnders was sacked after Matchday 6, and Thomas Letsch takes over for this first game in charge, having previously been sacked by Bochum last year. 

I would think Madrid go all in and win by 2, 3 or 4. SGPs could include HT/FT and Mbappe or others to score. 

• Champions League Picks: Real Madrid to win & score over 1.5 (over 2.5 is also good)
• Parlay Picks: SPO to score / FEY vs BM over 2.5 / RM win & over 1.5 (+101)

PSG vs Man City Prediction

PSG are actually not advancing if the next round started today, being 25th, out of 36 teams, one spot out of the top 24. Their games have been tight scoring just 6 and allowing just 6. 

Man City actually aren’t much better and also could miss out on advancing being only 22nd at 2-2-2 and winless in their past 3 UCL games.

Head-to-head they last met 4 times in 2021, with a 2-1 Man City win, 2-0 City win, 2-0 PSG win and 2-1 City win. They’ve onyl ever met 7 times ever and City is 4-1-2.

In France PSG are comfortably 1st and yet to lose a single game. Defense has been tight giving up only 16 goals in 18 games. 

Across 27 matches in all comps PSG has only lost 3 times, but all 3 have come in the UCL against top teams like Bayern Munich (1-0), Atletico Madrid (2-1) and Arsenal (2-0). They are though riding 8-game winning and 9-game undefeated streaks. Only 3 times all season have they not scored. 

In England Man City have been very inconsistent but routed Ipswich 6-0 Sunday bringing them to 4th. 5 different players scored and Foden had a brace.

After a run that saw them win once in 13, City are now undefeated in 6 in all comps. But … the competition has not been elite with draws to Everton and Brentford, and wins over Leicester, West Ham, Salford and Ipswich.

City always find a way to score but I still don’t trust their defense and both need points from this game. 

BTTS is -190 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is -111. 

• Champions League Picks: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-111)

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