It’s the MLS Cup Final on Saturday, December 7, at 4:00pm EST and we’re breaking down the best MLS Cup Final picks and our top LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls prediction here.
The Red Bulls have come close, often making deep playoff runs but rarely making it this far. They did make it this far 2008 but lost to Columbus 3-1.
Since that time the Galaxy, won the title in 2011, 2012 and 2014, and were runners-up 2009 as well. Overall, LA are the all-time MLS Cup leaders in appearances (9) and wins (5).
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls Odds
See the latest MLS Cup Final odds from Bet365 here.
- LA (-120)
- DRAW (+280)
- NY (+310)
- LA to lift trophy (-225)
- NY to lift trophy (+162)
- Over 2.5 (-150)
- Under 2.5 (+110)
- BTTS Yes (-150)
- BTTS No (+110)
LA Galaxy Preview
After finishing 2nd in the West, LA played 7th placed Colorado and routed the Rapids 5-0 and 4-1 in Round One of the playoffs.
They continued to score for fun versus Minnesota, pummeling the Loons at home 6-2.
They continued to ride that home-field advantage in the Conference Finals against Seattle with a 1-0 win, albeit in a much closer match. In fact, it was 0-0 with Seattle looking relatively comfortable until Riqui Puig found Dejan Jovelic late in the 85’ minute for the game’s lone goal.
The assist from Puig, was even more impressive considering it was discovered after the game that he had played the final 30 minutes with a torn ACL. Puig, the unquestioned leader of the team, will be a huge miss for the Galaxy in the final.
The hope will be that Dortmund legend Marco Reus can recover from a hamstring injury in time to fill into the #10 role. Reus played just 45 minutes against Seattle before being subbed off.
Puig had 17 goals and 19 assists in the regular season and another 2 goals and 3 assists in the playoffs. Missing the string-puller will be tough, he led in touches, progressive passes and a ton of other stats this season. LA was 3-1-1 in games without him this season though.
And Dejan Jovelic, Gabriel Pec and Joseph Painstil filled the net all season with 20, 19 and 13 goals respectively. In the playoffs those 3 have added another 5, 3 and 4 goals each.
Last game almost ended in a draw in regulation, something that rarely happens in Galaxy games. They have 1 draw in the Leagues Cup across their past 27 games.
They rarely lose too with just 7 losses in that time and also 7 losses further back over 31 games. They also rarely lose at home where they were 13-3-1 at home in the regular season. Even that one loss came at the Rose Bowl, not their normal home stadium. And they’ve been a perfect 3-0-0 these playoffs at Dignity Health Sports Park. Overall in all mathches at Digity, they’re 16-4-0.
LA has won 10 straight at home now, and have scored multiple goals in 9/10. In all home MLS games this season they scored multiple times in 16/20. Home or away LA has scored multiple times in 8/10 recent games. With 16 goals scored these playoffs, they are 1 off from tying the all-time record of 17.
LA could very likely concede though, they’ve done so in 9/11 and in 17/20.
New York Red Bulls Preview
The Red Bulls are unlikely finalists considering they were just 7th in the East. In Round One they upset Columbus winning 1-0 and then drawing 2-2 before winning in PKs.
Next up were crosstown rivals NYCFC who they shut out on the road 2-0.
Then last round it was on the road again in Orlando in the Conference Finals and they again got the shutout, beating the Lions 1-0. That came though with their only shot on target being a goal and off a free kick with Andres Reyes heading it in in the 47’ minute.
With wins in Columbus, New York and Orlando, the Red Bulls won’t be scared of going on the road again. But, surely the travel could cause some fatigue, whereas LA has been home for some time.
New York ended the regular season with just 1 win in 11 games. But they’re hot at the right time now with 4 straight wins.
The Bulls have now scored in 11 straight and have clean sheets in 3/4 but have also conceded in 11/14.
LA Galaxy vs New York Head-to-Head
Not counting friendlies, it’s been a while since these teams have met, not since 2021, a 3-2 Galaxy win in LA. Other scores were 3-2, 3-2, 3-1 and 2-2, but going back even further, back to 2016, so it’s hard to take much from those results with totally different teams now.
LA Galaxy vs New York Prediction
If recent history is anything to go off of in finals, we may see goals. The last 0-0 was in 2016 between Seattle and Toronto. Since, scores have been 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 1-1, 3-3 and 2-1.
But history aside, this still looks like goals. LA always scores and playing at home, it seems unlikely that doesn’t continue. The Red Bulls have only had 22%, 35%, 29% and 39% possession during the playoffs. That will likely continue here with them sitting and clogging things up, and hoping Emil Forsberg can send some long balls to Dante Vanzier and Lewis Morgan on the counter. And hoping keeper Carlos Coronel continues to stand on his head. He’s made multiple saves in 7 straight games and 8, 2, 6 and 3 in the 4 playoff games.
LA’s defense has improved a bit lately, but Colorado were missing key players and Seattle has one of the weaker offenses. They did allow 2 to Minnesota and surely things won’t run as smoothly without Puig in the middle.
I could certainly see the potential for BTTS or even BTTS & Over 2.5 hitting. For a winner, I gotta go LA, being at home and being the better team all season. But let’s start these MLS Cup Final picks off with the BTTS.
And then, I took this approach last game in a same-game parlay and will look to do something similar here too. And that is to focus on Pec.
We could go further back, but Pec last finished with 0 shot attempts or shots on target back on July 24 where he only subbed for 24 minutes. Since that time he’s had multiple shots attempts in 15 straight games and at least 1 shot on target as well. In the past 12 games he’s had multiple attempts and shots on target in each game, including going 7/2, 3/2, 4/3 and 4/2 in the playoffs.
Pec has been scorching hot and is a great scoring prop considering he’s now scored in 7/9 recent games as well as 10/14.
So, my LA vs New York best bet will be BTTS and Pec over 0.5 shots on target. This has already risen from -115 to -125 at Bet365 this week.
This bet could be improved by included shots attempts for Pec or adding in a variation of shot attempts or shots on target for Jovelic or Paintsil as well. Or, but picking one of the 3 to score. These playoffs, Jovelic looks the hottest right now.
- MLS Cup Final Picks: Both Team to Score and Gabriel Pec Over 0.5 Shots on Target (-125) Bet365
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
