The international break has concluded and the EPL title race is heating up as we head into the final stretch. Below, we break down some of the top games to bet in this weekend’s soccer picks and parlays for our Premier League predictions.
Tottenham vs Luton Town Prediction
Tottenham is fighting for top 4, sitting in 5th, but just 3 points back of Aston Villa, while Luton are fighting to stay in EPL being 17th, but just 1 point ahead of 18th Forest and could be jumped by Forest depending on their result with Palace.
It was a close 1-0 Tottenham win earlier this year. Luton, despite being a team always capable of scoring, something they’ve done in 13 straight (where BTTS is also 9-0), have 0 wins in those last 9 games. They’ve given up 28 goals in those 9 games too.
Tottenham lost 3-0 to Fulham before the break but are 4-1-2 in last their 7. That was just the second time they failed to score across all comps in 31 games this year. That trend should return here to kick off our Premier League predictions, though Luton
- Premier League Prediction: Tottenham Over 1.5 + Luton Over 0.5 same-game parlay (-125)
Newcastle vs West Ham United Prediction
Across several offensive and defensive categories, these teams are among some of both the better and worst teams.
Newcastle has scored the 5th most goals and have the 5th highest xG.
West Ham have the 9th most goals for but a much lower xG.
Despite both being in the top half of the table, West Ham has allowed the 7th most goals against and Newcastle the joint-8th most.
West Ham’s xG is 3rd worst, while Newcastle’s xG is 6th worst and when it comes to shots on target against West Ham has given up the 4th most and Newcastle 6th most.
Their overall goals per match (GPM) sees Newcastle 3.8 (the highest) and West Ham 3.3 (9th most).
Newcastle has seen the most games go over 2.5 at 21-7. West Ham is not far behind at 19-10. But in games going over just over 1.5, West Ham has seen the second most at 27-2, and Newcastle sits at 23-5.
West Ham has only seen 1 game in their past 11 all comps have less than 1 goal, a 1-0 loss in the UEL, otherwise are 3-2-0 in the last 5 EPL games.
In all comps for Newcastle they haven’t had a game finish with less than 2 goals since December 23. And they’ve scored in every single home game in the EPL, but have also allowed multiple goals in 7 of their past 9 EPL games.
When they met in the reverse fixture it was in October (2-2) and the last 6 have all seen BTTS with an average of 4.17 GPG scored. And there’s been at least 2 goals scored in each of their past 16 games dating back to 2014.
The best soccer picks for this game look like BTTS but West Ham are also out one of their top scorers in Mohammed Kudus with a shoulder injury and have been shut out in 4 of last 6 road games. But 4/6 have still seen 2+ goals. Let’s back goals from both and someone finding a third for this week’s Premier League predictions.
- Premier League Predictions: Both Teams to Score & O2.5 (-138)
Man City vs Arsenal Prediction
This is one of those games where you assume there will be goals when making your soccer picks with two top teams fighting for the title. Arsenal is 1st with 64 points, but then Liverpool also has 64 and Man City with 63 are both right there.
Arsenal is 1st in goals for, and Man City is 3rd. But then they are also 1st and 3rd respectively in GA.
So which do you trust, the offenses or the defenses?
It was just 1-0 Arsenal at the Emirates earlier this season in the EPL and Arsenal won in PKs after a 1-1 draw in the Community Shield to start the season.
Arsenal has had two close UCL games with Porto, a 1-0 loss and 1-0 PK win, but otherwise 14 of their previous 16 have seen 2+ goals. They’re 9-0-1 (Porto loss) in last 10 and have outscored opponents 33-5 in that time.
Man City are on a long run of great form themselves, much longer, being undefeated in 22 games in all competitions at 19-3-0. They’ve scored in all of those games and there’s been 2+ in 19/22.
Some key players could be missing both here, Keven de Bruyne for City and Bukayo Saka for Arsenal which is worth checking on before making your EPL predictions.
I would lean to City playing at home for the win, especially if Saka, Arsenal’s top scorer is out, but this could be tight.
- Premier League Predictions: Man City win (-110)
Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction
Moving on in our EPL picks, Liverpool are tied in 1st (but 2nd) with 64 pts with alongside Arsenal. Brighton are 8th, with 42 points.
Liverpool are near perfect at Anfield being 11-3-0 and outscoring opponents 38-12. And in fact have not lost a home game in any match since February 2023 in the UCL to Real Madrid, a run of 31 games.
And in those 31 home games in all matches, Liverpool have scored multiple goals 28 times.
Brighton are coming off 1-0 wins over Roma and Forest at home, but their last 3 road games were a 4-0 loss to Roma, 3-0 loss to Fulham and 1-0 loss to Wolves.
It was 2-2 in the reverse fixture and there are usually are goals between them with other recent scores being 2-1, 3-0, 3-3, 2-0, 2-2.
- Premier League Predictions: Liverpool -1.5 (-102)
Brentford vs Manchester United Prediction
Manchester United have been in good form having won 6 straight in all comps before falling 3-1 away to Man City before the break. That also extends a streak to 8 straight games where they have scored. And that should continue versus a Brentford team that has allowed the 4th most GA this season.
But then Man U are rarely consistent and now are adding Harry McGuire and Casemiro to the list of defensive injuries.
When we look at their road form, they had a good 0-0 draw with Liverpool back on December 17, but that is 1 of just 3 clean sheets they’ve kept in 12 games when playing on the road. Since that Liverpool game, they’ve given up 2 to West Ham, 2 to Forest, 2 to Newport, 3 to Wolves, 1 to Villa, 1 to Luton and 3 to City on their travels. With the only other clean coming versus Forest and Wigan.
Now Brentford are also a lower side, just 15th and they have just 2 wins in their past 17 in all competitions. They’ve conceded a goal in 20 of their past 21 games and have conceded multiple goals in 4 straight and in 9/11. Add in the fact they’ve been ravished with defensive injuries plus Sergio Regulion is suspended and that trend looks likely to continue.
But at home at the Gtech Community Stadium they’ve still scored in 8 straight in all comps and in 14/16 this season.
But BTTS is also 8-0 and 13-3 in those games. Go back to last season and they’ve scored in 26/27 home EPL games and they got back forward Bryan Mbeubo from injury before the break and he could start here alongside Ivan Toney.
- Premier League Predictions: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-138)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
