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Sep 14

Shred The Spread Weekend Soccer Best Bets (09/14/18)

By: Ryan Métivier

 

Schedules did not align this week for another video, but as the man currently sitting in the bottom of the standings in our weekly show, I’m feeling the itch to release some picks and make up some ground. So here goes with a few of my bets for this weekend and the following week in the soccer world.

 

Bet 1: Treble: +159 1 Unit — EPL

Bournemouth/Leicester Both Teams To Score
& Man City Win & Over 1.5 Game Goals
& Chelsea Win & Over 1.5 Game Goals

Bournemouth have scored twice at home in each of their games so far, while also allowing two in their last home match in a 2-2 draw with Everton. They’ve only failed to score in 1/4 games on the road to Chelsea. They’ve also only kept one clean sheet which came at home to the lowly Cardiff. Leicester City have seen both teams score in 3/4 of their matches including both road games. I ecpect both to find the back of the net in this match,

Each of Cheslea and Man City are heavy favorites at home at Cardiff and Fulham respectively. There is little value in straight up wins and honestly not much more in how I’m betting them here. But a win for both and at least two goals in each match bump up this parlay to a respectable +159. It would be shocking to see either of these clubs lose to a newly promoted squad at home.

 

Bet 2: Double: +141 1 Unit — MLS

Atlanta United Win
& Toronto FC/LA Galaxy Both Teams To Score

If I kept my bets to MLS I’d be soaring in this competition. All my picks lost on the the last show, but in MLS, season-long I’m up about 10 units. Anyways here we have one of the best teams in the league as a small favorite on the road against one of the league’s worst. Road wins are always hard to come by in MLS but the gulf in class between Atlanta United and Colorado Rapids is just too big. Yes the Rapids have shown some life of late, but that was short-lived as they’ve now dropped three straight. The Five Stripes have a little controversary around the club with Manager Tata Martino apparently fielding offers from other clubs, but they’ll be keen to regain top spot in the East and prove why Tata should stay in the Dirty South.

In TFC and LA we have two clubs likely not making the playoffs. The Galaxy have slightly better odds and could get the “new coach bump” with Sigi Schmid parting ways (getting fired?) with the Galaxy and Dominic Kinnear taking over on an interim basis. Any team with Zlatan is always a threat to score, and similarly any team with the backline that the Galaxy feature on the road are threats to get shredded. In their past two road games they’ve allowed an incredible 11 goals! LA hasn’t won since July 18, but they’ve scored in all but one match in the six games since. In fact LA has only failed to score at least once in four games this season and three of those came early in the season. In TFC, they face a club who was just embarrassed by the Galaxy’s cross-town rivals in LAFC. LAFC put four past TFC in Toronto in a 4-2 road win in TFC’s last game. Both teams have scored in 7/8 recent TFC matches and the last time Toronto failed to score at home came back in July.

 

Bet 3: Treble: +222 1 Unit — MLS

RSL win
& LAFC win
& Houston/Portland both team to score

Let’s stick in MLS here. In RSL/Minnesota we have the best home team against the worst road in the Western Conference. RSL is 10-3-1 at home, while Minnesota is 1-1-12 on the road. The Loons will have a short week as they played on Wednesday in DC and guess what…? They lost. Shocking! Despite taking a 1-0 lead early in the second half, they promptly gave it up and lost 2-1.

I’m going to fade another road team here with the Revolution travelling to LAFC. New England has been dreadful and finally won their first game since June 18 in their last match. Yes it was impressive to claim victory on the the road to a suddenly shaky NYCFC, but they were badly outplayed and had no business winning. It’s likely too bad the international break came when it did, as New England wasn’t able to build momentum off that win. LAFC will be too strong at home and Lee Nguyen will have added motivation playing his old club.

Dating back to 2014 only twice in this matchup between Houston and Portland have both teams not scored over the past 12 games. These teams met up back in July in Portland where the Timbers were 2-1 victors. These teams are going opposite directions with the Timbers undefeated in three, while the Dynamo haven’t won an MLS match since July 7—ooof. Houston can generally score at home though having only failed to do so twice this year. Portland meanwhile has been known to struggle on the road having not won in the past four attempts. They are also only 3-5-5 in their travels while scoring 16 and allowing 25. The Dynamo have been dreadful but they are in the US Open Cup Finals on September 26. Between this match and then, they will also play on the road to Orlando four days prior to the final. In all likelihood they will rest players before the final to try and be fresh to salvage some hardware from this season. Which means this could be a game where they look to build some confidence and come out fresh after the international break. That being said I can’t be confident in them keeping a clean sheet against the in-form Timbers. Even Over 1.5 game goals could add a little value here, but all things seem to point to both teams scoring.

Bet 4: Treble: +180 1 unit — Champions League 

Borussia Dortmund win
Liverpool/PSG both teams to score
Barcelona over 1.5 team goals

I want to jump ahead to Tuesday’s opening fixtures in the Champions League. I love the short odds with Dortmund on the road in Belgium. Club Brugge are flying at the top of the Belgian First Division, but playing one of Germany’s elite will be a completely different test.

After that, there is just so much firepower on the field between Liverpool and PSG it’s hard to not see both teams finding the back of the net. Throw in at least two goals from Barca at home to PSV and you have almost two-to-one odds.

 

Shred The Spread Tipster Results

Tipster  Record Accuracy Units
Alex 2-7 22.2% +4.40
Daniel  11-12 47.8%  +3.26
Ryan  4-9 30.7% -5.10