NFL Week 6 Stat Breakdown

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We’ve broken down each matchup in Week 6 in various statistically categories while also highlighting any areas where one team may hold a significant advantage. For the purposes of this chart that is defined by a difference in ranking between two teams that amounts to more than 10 ranking spots, ie 2nd rushing attack vs 14th rushing defence, etc.

We’ve also given some Quick hits below the chart summarizing these findings.

 

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Or Download the PDF here: nfl-chart-week-6

 

  •  Contingent on who starts at QB for Denver, but given the stats of the season so far, Denver should win the turnover battle, and pick up their share of 1st downs and trips to the Red Zone. Both teams should be able to pressure the opposing QB.
  • Baltimore’s defensive statistics match up well against the Giants especially in rush defence and limiting their opposition to 1st downs. They should hold an edge in turnovers, possession and in protecting their QB.
  • Carolina will hold an edge in rushing, while New Orleans may struggle to move the ball on the ground. However both teams should find success through the air going up against equally weak passing d’s. If Carolina is still without Cam Newton, this advantage is weakened. Each team should move the ball and pick up first downs. New Orleans holds the edge in turnovers, Carolina in Red Zone trips.
  • While some of these stats could be a little misleading as Tom Brady was away for four weeks, the Pats should be able to run the ball on Cincy, while Cincy may find it hard to do the same on New England. Cincy should have some success throug the air though on offence. Cincy doesn’t allow too many first downs, New England keeps their QB’s upright only allowing the 6th most sacks.
  • Who knows who will start at QB for the Browns, but Tennessee will run the ball down Cleveland’s throat all afternoon and will hope their 9th ranked passing d will shut down whoever lines up under centre for the Browns. Tennessee doesn’t allow many first downs, trips to the RZ or QB sacks. They are also likely to dominate possession. They should also have success in the pass rush getting to Cleveland’s QB(s).
  • Jacksonville is the league’ most penalized team in yards/game. Chicago is only he 9th. Chicago could have some success picking up 1st downs and getting to the QB.
  • The Lions should look forward to picking up some 1st downs, making some trips to the RZ and getting to Rams’ QB Keenan.
  • The Eagles will likely test the Skins’ 30th ranked rush d. Washington will be hard pressed to move the ball on the ground vs. Philly’s 3rd ranekd rush d. Philly should control possession and pick up their share of 1st downs and RZ attempts.
  • Pittsburgh can run. Miami can’t defend. Miami can’t run, Pittsburgh can defend. Pittsburgh can also throw. Miami is one of the league’s worst in turnover ratio (29th). The Steelers should get plenty of 1st downs, limit their opponents in that category, hold the majority of possession and keep Big Ben upright.
  • San Fran will start a new QB this week in Colin Kapernick but so far they’ve been unable to throw the ball (31st passing offence) and that should continue. They also can’t stop the run on d which will be a problem on the road to Buffalo’s 3rd ranked run attack. San Fran turns over the ball a lot, but they are also the least penalized team and hold their opponents to a respectable amount of 1st downs per game. Buffalo does not move the ball well or often. The Bills do thought protect their QB well and against a week pass rush should find time to develop their plays.
  • Oakland should find success on the ground. KC may find success through the air. KC holds the advantage in penalties and plays in the RZ. Oakland should have more possession and should have all kinds of time in the pocket for David Carr to make plays with the Oakland o-line ranking 1st in sacks allowed and KC ranking 31st in sacks.
  • For all of Atlanta’s passing success so far, their 1st ranked attack may have met its match vs. Seattle’s 2nd ranked pass d. Seattle’s 12th ranked passing offence may find some success vs. Atlanta’s 26th ranked passing offence though. Big advantage in turnovers to Atlanta and big possession advantage to Seattle.
  • Fairly even statistically between Dallas and Green Bay though Dallas should control possession and Green Bay should have their chances in the RZ.
  • Houston has trouble in the turnover department but are much more disciplined when it comes to penalties than Indy. Houston limits RZ attempts and can get to the QB, while Indy struggles to creates sacks of their own. Indy should hope for a sloppy game and to capitalize on turnovers.
  • Arizona has a chance to carve up the Jets secondary and to shut down the ‘Fitzaster’ on d with their 4th ranked secondary. The Jets… um.. Fitzpatrick.. are/is a turnover machine. Arizona gets 1st downs, but Carson Palmer could be under siege from the Jets’ d-line.

NFL Week 5 Stats Cheat Sheet

 

 

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While by no means all the stats you can find to compare the matchups in Week 5 of the NFL, we’ve taken the liberty to compare each team in a number of statistical categories for the upcoming week. We’ve also highlighted any area where there may be a matchup advantage/disadvantage in a game. It was decided to point out some of the more glaring differences and as such any stat that had a greater than 10 place ranking between the teams was highlighted. For instance on the Thursday night game Arizona’s 15th ranked Rushing Offense will go up against San Fran’s 32nd ranked Rushing Defense. Arizona is also ranked 14th in time of possession, compared to San Fran’s 31st ranking in that category. The chart will also note if a team has had a longer week to prepare having played last Thursday or if they had a bye the previous week, or a shorter week if they played on Monday, or in the Colts’ case are making an extra long travel coming from London. The game lines are that of the time of posting.

Download the NFL Week 5 Stats Cheat Sheet HERE

 

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France Ligue 2 Predictions: Round 8

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AC Ajaccio vs. Auxerre

  • Neither team is playing overly strong of late, but AC have at least scored 6 goals in their past 4 games, compared no goals scored by Auxerre in the past 4 league games.
  • Auxerre could be fatigued having one less day to prepare after playing on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at Brest

Safe play lies with Ajaccio DRAW NO BET -275

Amiens vs. Valenciennes

  •  Amiens are riding a four-game winning streak and currently sit 2nd in the Ligue 2 Table
  • They will be rested after their game on Friday was postponed due to inclement weather
  • Amiens have scored 9 goals during their current win streak, including 3 goals in each of their past two games
  • Valenciennes has been on a decent run of form themselves having only lost once all season to currently sit 7th in the table.
  • They have 1 win and 2 ties in the past 3 games and have scored 7 goals in their last 4 games.

Two teams in good form should see some goals back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at +120

Laval vs. Sochaux

  • These two teams struggle to score as both scored less goals than games played last year
  • Sochaux have played 4 games under the 2.5 goals line this year and Laval have played 6.
  • Sochaux had drawn 4 games in a row but have picked up enough point to sit 5th in the table
  • Laval only have 4 goals all season and 3 surprisingly came in their last game, their only win of the year. Thye currently sit 19th in the table

Back UNDER 2.5 goals

Le Havre vs. Brest

  • 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two have been draws
  • 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two have finished Under 2.5 goals
  • Brest sit top of the table with 14 points in 7 games.
  • Le Havre have two wins in 7 games and sit 10th
  • Le Havre started the season strong but have now gone winless across all competitions in their last 6 matches
  • Brest may have some fatigue having played on Saturday instead of Friday
  • Though Le Havre fell to the lowly Bourg on Friday by a 2-1 score.

All things considered there is way too much value on the top ranked team at +300 to ignore. But a safer bet lies with DRAW OR BREST -125

Lens vs. Orleans

  • Lens have drawn 5/7 games, including 3 straight 1-1 games
  • Not surprisingly, 6/7 games have fallen Under 2.5 goals overall
  • Even less surprising considering Lens led the league in games finishing Under 2.5 goals last year with 29
  • Orleans by contrast have been involved in some high scoring affairs, having lost 3-1 to struggling Laval and then winning 3-1 against the in form Strasbourg. Prior to that they had dranw two games in a row 0-0.

Lens only lost 3 games at home last year but have been struggling of late and Orleans should be motivated after their three-goal outburst on Friday. Back the stalemate of DRAW +210.

Nimes vs. Troyes

  • These sides are typically involved in high scoring affairs with 5 of their past 6 matches going Over 2.5 goals
  • Nimes only lost 2 games at home all of last season
  • They have scored 9 goals in their past 4 games and have won two straight games by 3-1 scorelines
  • Much of that success has to do with Alioui who has 6 goals and 2 assists in Nimes past four matches
  • Troyes struggle for goals and could only manage a 1-1 tie with the lowly Niort on Friday

With the current form of both Nimes and front man Alioui the only way to look is to back the home side at +100

Niort vs. Ajaccio GFCA

  • Niort have yet to win a game all season and sit in the basement of the Ligue 2 standings, having only scored 6 goals, while allowing 13
  • GFC have only scored 5 goals all year but have only allowed 5 as well, resulting in only 1 loss, which gives them 9th place in the table.
  • Despite the lack of goal scoring this year, these teams have gone over the 2.5 total in 4 of their past 6 against each other
  • Both of these teams have only scored more than 1 goal in a game once all year.
  • GFC will be rested after their Friday game was postponed.

Niort can set up shop and draw with the best of them and GFC have been keeping things tidy all season on the backline. Back the DRAW +190

Reims vs. Clermont

  • Both Reims and Clermont are flying high in 3rd and 6th respectively
  • Reims have allowed the least amount of goals this season with 4 and are undefeated at home with 3 wins, and 5 goals scored, with only 1 allowed
  • Clermont isn’t scoring a lot with 7 goals in 7 games, but also haven;t allowed many with only 6
  • Despite the low amount of goals invovled in each team’s games, both have only failed to score at least once in a game only 1 time all season

Pick BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE +100

Tours vs. Bourg

  • These teams are a mess defensively having allowed the most and second most goals in the league. They have though managed to score a fair bit themselves as well.
  • Tours has more goals than 14 teams above them in the standings and Bourg have more than 7 teams above them.
  • In total 45 goals have combined in their games this year
  • Bourg have played 4 games over 2.5 goals, and Tours have played 5

Pick BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at -125 or OVER 2.5 GOALS at +108

Major League Soccer Betting Previews: Sept. 17

 

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6pm: Portland vs. Philadelphia

The Timbers have been extraodinary at home all season and will look to continue that trend this evening. Portland has yet to lose at Providence Park this year, but will be returning home after their travels from Costa Rica on Wednesday for their match against Saprissa in the CCL. The Timbers were badly outplayed and lost that match 4-2. Though some players were rested for that match, several other key playrs were not and it’s hard to imagine this Timbers squad not being a bit fatigued. Star striker Fenando Adi also picked up a knock on Wednesday and is in doubt for this one. Philly is hitting the road for the first of three road matches and definitely has the talent to get the road swing off to a good start and pick up something from this game.

Pick: Draw of Philadelphia -110

 

7pm: New York City FC vs. FC Dallas

The blue side of New York has had lots to cheer about lately with five straight home wins and sitting tied in 2nd overall in the East. A win mixed with some favourable results could see New York take over 1st place by the end of the weekend. It would also see them pull closer to their opponents in FC Dallas for the Supporters’ Shield race. Dallas currently hold a seven point lead on New York for 1st overall.

This is another match that sees one team playing off a short week in that FC Dallas played in the US Open Cup Final on Tuesday night, coming away victorious over the New England Revolution. All hands were on deck for that one and with a few point lead in the Supporters’ Shied race and the short week, it would not be too hard to see some let up on the Dallas side on the road.

Pick: New York City FC +130

 

7:30pm: Orlando City FC vs. Columbus

These teams met earlier this year in Columbus for a 2-2 draw. The Crew are pretty much dead in the water 8 points back of a playoff spot, while Orlando sit in 7th in the East tied with DC in 6th, but one place lower by virtue of goal difference. Prior to their defeat last week to LA Galaxy in Landon Donovan’s return, City had reeled off two straight victories to keep their playoff hopes alive. Orlando has only lost twice at home this year, Columbus has only one once on the road all season. Crew setup man Higuain should still be out with abdominal pain and Orlando’s stars should be too much for the hapless Crew to handle at Campus World Stadium.

Pick: Orlando +100

 

9pm: Colorado vs. San Jose

If there was ever a time for the Rapids to make their move on FC Dallas for the Supporters’ Shield it would be now. After taking a 1-0 victory over Dallas last week on the road, they now sit only 5 points back in the West with two games in hand. Colorado was missing some players last week and still pulled out the win and now should have those bodies back and will host a much weaker Earthquakes club who have one win on the road all year. Colorado by contrast have yet to lose at home this season and have only allowed five goals at home in 13 games.

Pick: Colorado +100

 

9:30: RSL vs. Houston

It’s hard to find a stat that favours the Dyname in this one. RSL has taken points in their last eight home games vs Houston, with five of those being wins. RSL is 4th in the West and are undefeated at home for a total of 14 games. Houston sit bottom in the West with only one win on the road and the least amount of goals scored in the league overall. Additioanlly Hoouston have failed to win in 21 of their past 22 road games.

Pick: RSL -143

Chicago Fire vs. D.C. United Betting Preview

 

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Two teams on the outside looking in to the Eastern Conference playoff race match up tonight in Chicago. Chicago has slim hopes of finishing top 6, as they sit 9th with 26 points, but have definitely picked up their play of late. The Fire are 2-2-2 in their last six and had a long run of undefeated matches at home until last week when they fell 2-1 to TFC. They have though, only lost three times at home this year. The Fire have scored at least once though in each of their past 9 games and only failed to score once in their past 13 games. In fact in their last six games they have an impressive 13 goals.

D.C. have it all to play for here as they currently sit 1 point out of the playoff picture in 8th with 33 points, and must more past New England in 7th with 33 points as well and Orlando in 6th 34 points. A win would be ideal but any points at this time of year would suffice to keep pace. United do struggle on the road though having only won once on their travels all season. D.C. has also not had trouble finding the back of the net as they’ve scored at least once in  their past 10 games and have 10 goals in their last 3 games.

Six of those goals came back on August 27th at home to Chicago where they blew out the Fire by a 6-2 scoreline, aided though by a Fire red card in the 34th minute. These two teams met on April 30th in Chicago and settled for a 1-1 tie.

The goals are flowing for both teams right now and neither can afford to hold back in this one.

PICK: Both teams to score -175

Ligue 2 Betting Tips: Sept. 16, 2016

 

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Sochaux vs. Reims

This matchup pits two teams who like to play things close to the vest. Both clubs have gotten off to good starts in Ligue 2 with Reims sitting in 3rd place with 12 points and Sochaux right behind in 5th with 10 points. Each have scored 7 goals, and combined the two teams have only allowed 7 goals in their 6 games (Reims 3, and Sochaux 4).

Last season only 4 clubs had more games finish with Under 2.5 goals than Sochaux and they are at it again with already three 0-0 scorelines this year and 3 of the their six games coming in under 2.5 goals. With 3 draws already 5 of their six games coming in Under 2.5 goals themselves, Reims have been keeping things tight so far as well.

Pick: DRAW +190

Pick: Under 2.5 goals -188

 

Red Star vs. Laval

This match see the opposite from above, as Red Star and Laval have gotten off to poor starts sitting 15th and 17th in Ligue 2 standings respectively. Red Star have only 3 goals in their 6 games, though all 3 have come in their past 3 games. That being said one was by virtue of penalty last match in their first win of the season (2-1) over AC Ajaccio.

Laval has scored one more goal than Red Star this year (4), but 3 of those came in their first win last week over Orleans. Prior to that they had been shut out in 3 straight league games.

Each team has allowed 6 on the year, both play ultra defensively and each will likely gladly take any point they can get and will see this match as an opportunity to collect something. Red Star have 3 0-0 draws already and Laval have played 5/6 games under the 2.5 goal total. With their stadium unfit for Ligue 2 competition, Red Star won’t even have the full benefit of a normal home field advantage as they play their games outside of the city.

Pick: DRAW +163

Already a very low price on the draw, money has been pouring in on both team sharing the spoils as this number has dropped from +188.

 

Orleans vs Strasbourg

Two promoted sides from the Nacional League have each taken different routes to start their Ligue 2 campaigns. Strasbourg sit 2nd place with 12 points, 8 goals for and only 3 allowed, while Orleans sit 18th with only 4 goals scored and 6 allowed. Despite their poor placing in the table, Orleans’ matches have been close besides their 3-1 loss to the lowly Laval last week. Strasbourg had a slightly shorter work week to prepare as they played and won 2-0 against Troyes on Monday. All but one of Strasbourg’s games have also come in Under 2.5 goals.

Pick: Draw or Strasbourg -250

 

Tours vs. Nimes

While neither team has gotten off to a great start this year, their games have been interesting. Scoring hasn’t been a problem for Tours who have 9 goals this year, their problem has been keeping the ball out of their own net as they’ve allowed 10. Only 2 of their 6 games have stayed under 2.5 goals.

Nimes have scored 6 on the year which have all come in their last 3 games. They’ve also allowed 8. New forwards Alioui and Kouakou are clicking and this is a team that scored the sixth most goals in Ligue 2 last year.

Pick: Both teams to score -138

 

Valenciennes vs. AC Ajaccio

Two defensive minded teams that each saw 25 of their 38 L2 games finish under 2.5 goals last year meet in this match. AC only managed 1 win on the road all of last season and Valenciennes have already fallen unde that total 4 times this year.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals

 

Betting The Board in Domino’s Ligue 2

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Friday, September 9, 2016

 

Lots of action this afternoon in Domino’s Ligue 2 beginning at 2pm as the 6th week of the season gets under way and we see many great opportunities to step in with some action.

 

  • Laval/Orleans Under 2.5 goals -211
  • Niort/Nimes Under 2.5 goals -138
  • Draw or Orleans -200   (at Laval)
  • Draw of Sochaux -238   (at Auxerre)
  • Draw No Bet – Brest -225 (vs Clermont)
  • Brest and Clermont – both to score -110
  • AC Ajaccio to win +105 (vs Red Star)
  • Lens to win -167    (vs Bourg-Perronas)
  • Amiens/Tours draw +200
  • Niort/Nimes draw +200
  • Reims/GFCA Ajaccio draw +190

 

All odds courtesy of Bet365.

MLS Picks of the Day

 

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7pm: Vancouver Whitecaps vs. New York Red Bulls

For a team already in a tailspin, the international break for most major leagues likely could not have come at a worse time for any team as it comes for the Whitecaps. Vancouver’s last win in MLS play came back on July 13th and since have gone 0-3-4 while only scoring three goals. Tonight they will be witbout Perez, Barnes, Waston, Bolanos, Edgar and de Jong who will all be away for international duty. Not to mention their current injuries regulars Manneh and Harvey.

While the Red Bulls will also be without their main creator in Kljestan, as well as defender Lawrence for international duties, plus a host other defensive injuries and a questional status to star goalkeeper Robles with a knee strain, they have been in top form of late currently sitting in third place in the East. They are also on a string of nine games without a loss in MLS play and know a win would bring them into a tie with Toronto FC for second in the East.

Run of contrasting forms and availability of players looks like an easy win for New York Red Bulls at +163, which has already come way down from the opening line of +240. Any road win in the MLS is hard to come by though so a safer bets of Draw No Bet -120 or Darw or New York Red Bulls at -208 could be played.

 

7:30pm: New England Revolition vs. Colorado Rapids

It’s hard to make a real strong argument for either club if you look at their current runs of form. The Rapids are not a high scoring team in the first place and now will have to do without Gashi, away on international duty. Gashi has been an integral part of the offence of late with three goals in his last five games. Pappa will also be away for this one, as well as Williams and keeper Howard, while Jones rests an injury. Despite sitting thrid in the West, the Rapids have hit a tough run of form having only won one of their last six games. They’ve also only won on the road twice this season.

A tough run of form would be an understatement for the Revs, as they continue to plummet down the East standings,  having no wins in their past six games and no goals in the past four. They will also be without frontman Kamara who is with Sierre Leone.

The goals and wins have to start coming for New England soon with a team as talented as they are, but they’ll face a tough task breaking down the stingiest defence in the league of the Rapids, and a team well versed in staying compact at the back and taking their chances when they can. Though Howard may be away, MacMath can return between the sticks and the team will have full confidence in him as he was the starter in charge or Colorado’s early season success before Howard came to town.

Rapids not the team to allow Revs back in the win column especially with only four losses all season. Take Draw or Colorado -118.

 

8:30pm: Chicago Fire vs Philadephia Union

Fire have been showing signs of life lately with impressive results against LA (0-0 draw) and Montreal (3-0 win), but are also fresh off a humilating 6-2 defeat to D.C. last week, albeit playing a man down after the 34th minute. This week they’ll be without the services of star striker Accam and also the newly acquired Arshakyan.

The Union are hot right now with only one loss in their last five and have been strong on the road with two wins and a draw in their last three travels. A look at the Union’s schedule also reveals only three times all season where they have failed to score a goal, something which has not happened since July 2 away to Houston. Of late they have 11 goals in their last five games.

Despite Chicago’s struggles, they’ve been hitting the scoresheet themselves lately, with 12 goals in their past six and at least scoring once in each of those matches.

Two selections. Draw or Philadelpiha at -138 and Both Teams to Score at -200.

 

 

 

 

NCAAF Week 1 Teaser Plays

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12pm: Missouri +10 @ West Virginia

3:30pm: LSU -12.5 @ Wisconsin

7:30pm: Massachusetts @ Florida -36.5

8pm: New Mexico State @ UTEP -9

8pm: USC @ Alabama O/U 52.5

 

With a 7 point Teaser applied.

 

Missouri +17

LUS -5.5

Florida -29.5

UTEP -2

USC/Alabama Over 45.5

 

+350 total odds

 

 

 

Canadian Soccer Picks: August 28th

A couple selections from some smaller leagues today.

 

United Soccer League (USL)

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Toronto FC 2 vs. Montreal vs. FC Montreal

Two bottom feeding teams in the Eastern Conference square off this afternoon, but FC Montreal is at least in their best form of the season. Montreal sit alone in the basement of both the Eastern Conference and the league as a whole and have only won five games all year, however three of those wins have come in their past three games where they have outscored their opposition 10-4.

TFC 2 is only slightly better than Montreal on the year ranekd 12th in the East vs. Montreal (14th). They have only one win their last six, and have been outscored 4-1 in their last three games, all losses. They have dropped their past two home games in 1-0 defeats. TFC 2 also come into this match having played on Wednesday, so may be a bit more tired than FC Montreal who have been off since last Sunday.

Good value on Montreal to take the win at +220, or a safer play of Draw or Montreal at -138.

 

North American Soccer League (NASL)

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FC Edmonton vs. Puerto Rico FC

Winning on the road is tough in any league, but Puerto Rico will be making their longest trip of the season, flying 5600km to Edmonton, Alberta for today’s match. Puerto Rico sit rooted at the bottom of the NASL standings with seven points in 10 games in the Fall Season, while Edmonton are challenging for first place with 22 points in nine games in second. Edmonton are riding a five-game winning streak where they have outscored their opponents 6-1, including a 1-0 win in Puerto Rico on August 6th.

Edmonton to keep the winning going at -333.