MLS Double: March 11, 2018

 

 

 

 

Only two games on the slate today and we’ll be in action for both.

After a poor start in Week 1 of the MLS season last week we’ll try to bounce back in Week 2.

 

Atlanta vs. D.C.

Both of these squads will be looking for better performances this week—Atlanta having been blown off the pitch in Houston to the tune of 4-0, and DC, for giving up a one goal lead to 10-men Orlando in the 93′ minute to settle for a 1-1 draw.

What can we expect this week? For one, Atlanta is just too good a squad to face a similar fate this week and came into this season as one of the top favourites to lift MLS Cup. Last week may have been bad, call it terrible, but they are a completely different beast at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Last season they were near unstoppable at home going 11-3-3, while scoring 48 times.

We can also expect that DC will struggle on the road. As the season is too young still, we’ll look at DC’s 2017 record on the road and see they only managed to win three times and conceded a whopping 40 times, good for third worst in the league as far as road goals allowed.

Let’s also look a little deeper into their match on the road last week. Sure they held a 1-0 lead for most of the game until the dieing minutes, but let’s not forget Orlando went down to 10 men at halftime. So they had an entire half with a man advantage and still came out with only 40.9% possession. On top of that Orlando completed far more passes (462-327) and completed 180 “final third” passes—a figure that was actually tied for second worst of all teams last week.

If DC allows anything similar this week to a full strength Atlanta squad, Atlanta has the weapons to finish their chances and redeem themselves from last week.

DC does have a 3-0 record vs. Atlanta last season going for them and do welcome ex-United member Yamil Asad to their team, who started his DC career off with a bang, scoring their goal last week.

Pick: Altanta United -200

 

 

NYCFC vs. LA Galaxy

Each of these teams got off to good starts to their respective 2018 MLS campaigns last week, NYCFC winning 2-0 on the road to SKC and LA winning 2-1 at home to Portland.

NYCFC were tough to break at home last season, only losing twice and averaging just under two goals per game with 33 in 17 games, while LA, historially poor on the road in past seasons, actually held the second best road record in the West with a 5-3-9 mark, and 28 goals scored.

Major absences for both teams this week include CB Maxime Chanot for NYCFC after seeing red last week and midfielder Romain Alessandrini for LA after he pulled a hamstring in last week’s match.

It’s a rare match when NYCFC don’t score at least once at home, having only failed to do so once in their past 18 league matches. However it is also rare for them to keep clean sheets at home, having allowed at least one goal in 15 of those 18 matches.

New striker Ola Kamara already struck once last week and with a missing starting CB (Chanot) in the New York backline, the LA attack should be able to create some chances. In fact they have netted at least one goal in their past six MLS matches.You can’t put much stock into pre-season results, but it’s worth noting LA won 3-0 vs. NYCFC in February during pre-season play.

Pick: NYCFC/LA BTTS -150

 

BET

DOUBLE: +150 for 1 Unit

 

MLS Season Record:

 

0-2

-1 Unit

MLS Betting: Season Kick Off March 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

MLS is back and it’s time to stat some capping on North America’s top soccer league!

 

TFC -200

The MLS Champs Toronto FC will have the trophies on display to start the season opener at home to Columbus Crew. Toronto had a record breaking season last year and now have their sights on defending their title, as well as looking past their domestic matches for success in CONCACAF Champions League. The squad is already warmed up with two games under their belt in CCL play after taking out the Colorado Rapids in the first round. They will now face Tigres next Wednesday. Despite this tight fixture congestion TFC are fielding a full lineup with all the big names this afternoon for the home and season opener. After letting the fans go home on Tuesday with a 0-0 draw with Colorado, TFC will be keen to come out strong and get the season off to a strong start against their Trillium Cup rivals the Columbus Crew. Columbus lost to Toronto by the slimmest of margins in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but in the offseason lost two players in Ola Kamara and Justin Meram who accounted for 31 of the team’s 53 goals.

 

Houston/Atlanta BTTS -163

No team was better at home last year in the Western Conference than the Dynamo as they won 12 of their 17 games. Overall they were only bested by Toronto for best overall home record. Houston scored 43 times at home while only allowing 17. Atlanta may have stumbled down the stretch in their road outings, but they still managed over a goal per game average on the road scoring 22 times. With Atlanta United’s dynamic offensive weapons it’s always tough to see a game where they are not capable of picking up at least one goal, especially with Miguel Almiron pulling the strings and Josef Martinez up top. In their only meeting last year Atlanta won 4-1, though it was at home.

 

Bet: 2 TEAM DOUBLE +142 for 1 unit 

 

 

Bet The Board NFL Contest Results

It wa a successful year in NFL football betting as we finished tied in 7th overall (in the money) from a pool size of over 2,000 entrants in the Bet The Board Podcast Football Challenge!

 

 

 

NFL Week 10 Statistical Breakdown

Here’s a little stat comparison for each team going into Sunday’s Week 10 games.

 

Soccer tips for October 28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valencia DNB -350 vs Alavés

The surprise package of La Liga thus far has been Valencia who sit 2nd in the league standings and have yet to lose a single game. On the road they are 2-2-0 and have scored 12 goals. By contrast the lowly Alavés have but a single win in 9 games and have been outscored 3-14.

Outside of being at home there is no reason to expect Alavés to step up against this sort of competition. Valencia DND.

 

Bordeaux/Monaco OVER 1.5 goals

This one has the chance to see some goals. Bordeaux are strong at home with a 3-1-0 record, and have scored 8 while only conceding 3. Their home record in the league is phenomenal as looking back they have not lost a home game since February 10, which came to PSG in a 3-0 defeat. Prior to that their next home loss came December 10, 2016 to this exact opponent, when Monaco won 4-0. In each of their past 10 home games they have also scored.

Monaco is always a threat to score and If you look back in just their past 34 road games overall, only twice have one of their games ended with less than two goals. In their five road games thus far in Ligue 1 this year, there have been 19 total goals.

The past 11 encounters between these two have seen under 2 goals only twice and in their last five matchups there have been 3, 4, 3, 3 and 4 goals total in each game.

Look for a free flowing game. Over 1.5 goals.

 

Juventus DOUBLE CHANCE vs AC Milan

Despite blowing up the bank this offseason things have not been going to plan in Milan. They sit 8th overall in Serie A and have only scored 6 goals in their 5 home games. Key offseason acquisition Leonardo Bonucci who came over from Juventus will also be missing due to suspension. The club’s goals are already falling out of reach and in comes a hungry Juventus team who will be hoping to keep page with both Napoli and Inter who should also win their games this weekend.

Juventus was upset at home to Lazio a few games back and since have won their next three games by a combined score of 12-4.

Prior to Milan’s 4-1 win over Chievo last week, they had failed to win in their past four games. In fact they did not even score in three of those games. If you look back, their next win came vs lower competition in the Europa league when they edged past Croatian side Rijeka 3-2.

Juve have scored 15 goals on the road this season already and have won 11 of the past 13 matchups with Milan. Juventus has had troubles keeping the ball out of their net as well this year and rarely keep clean sheets, and with their upcoming Champions League coming up next week we’ll take the insurance and bet Juventus Double Chance.

 

Ajax WIN vs Willem II – 350

 

Fun stat! This is the 85 meeting between Willem II and Ajax. One team has won 70 times and I’ll give you a clue, it’s not Willem II. Though they have reeled off 3 straight wins of late, the gulf in class here is just too large. Ajax has been on a tear of late and have scored 22 goals in the last six competitive games. They’ve actually scored 4 goals in each of their past four.

The latest two head-to-head games have seen Ajax leave victorious by 3-1 and 5-0 margins. We’ll look for that to continue with another Ajax win.

 

 

4 GAMES +152  *1 unit

Odds Courtesy of Bet365

Soccer Betting October 28th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top betting picks for soccer on Saturday, October 28, 2017.

 

Bayer Leverkusen WIN vs Cologne

Cologne have been the whipping boys of the Bundesliga this term and have yet to win a game. Their 0-2-7 record (3 goals for/17 allowed) leaves much to be desired. They are sorely lacking any form of offense without last year’s main striker Anthony Modeste (25 goals) who was loaned out to China, and will find themselves in a tough spot against Leverkusen who are 2-2-0 at home with 11 goals scored vs only 4 allowed. Leverkusen are riding a 4 match undefeated streak and are the 3rd highest scoring team in the German league. They have scored at least 2 goals in each of their past 5 home league games, while Cologne have given up at least 2 goals on their travels in 9 of their past 12 on the road.

There is nothing to convince us right now that anything will change this Saturday. Leverkusen -300.

 

Arsenal WIN vs Swansea

The Swans are only out of the Relegation Zone due to goal-difference, which isn’t saying much since they’ve only scored 6 times, and only twice on the road. That being said they’ve only conceded once on the road and do have an impressive road draw vs Tottenham (0-0) to their credit this season. That was back in September though and since then they have lost outright 4 of their past 5 EPL games, with their only win coming home to Huddersfield.

Arsenal have been far from perfect this season, but mostly their struggles have come on the road. Lucky for them they are playing this match at home where they are 4-0-3 with 11 goals scored and only 3 allowed. They are coming off a 5-2 thumping of Everton last weekend and a 2-1 League Cup win over Norwich City in mid-week. Alexander Lacazette has been on point with 5 goals scored and the offense was clicking on all cylinders last week.

Arsenal are too much at home for Swansea. Arsenal to win -400

 

Man City WIN vs West Brom

There’s not much to say here. Man City are flying and are by far the top team in England, and arguably across all of Europe. They score for fun, have scored 10 more goals than the next closest team in the EPL, are 4-0 on the road and have scored 11 goals compared to only conceding 1. Further more they have won the past 12 games vs West Brom and are undefeated in their last 15 vs The Baggies.

West Brom rarely get blown out and are yet to lose at home this year in 4 games, but their underwhelming attack (7 goals overall) hardly seems like a match for the free-scoring City. In fact if you look back West Brom have won exactly 3 of their past 21 EPL games.

Until City’s dominance ends we’ll keep taking them. Man City -400.

 

Watford or DRAW vs Stoke -350

Watford has been the surprise package of the Premier League this season ranking 6th after nine rounds. Their 15 goals scored also rank 6th in the league, though they have also been known to give up goals, allowing the joint 4th most goals allowed with 17. Watford’s form has been especially impressive with a win over Arsenal and a solid performance against Chelsea last week which saw them leading until the 71st minute and only falling behind in an eventual 4-2 defeat in the 87th.

Stoke have won exactly 2 of their past 16 road games in the EPL, are 0-1-3 on the road this season and have been outscored 11-4 on their travels. In 5 of their last 6 games overall in the league they have allowed at least 2 goals. Overall Stoke have allowed the most goals in the league with 20.

These squads are in complete opposite of forms, though Watford has had a leaky backline so we’ll play it safe with Watford Double Chance.

 

 

4 TEAMS +167  *1 unit

 

Odds Courtesy of Bet365

NFL Week 8 Stats

Here are some helpful NFL Handicapping Stats to help you find an edge in your Week 8 bets!

 

Why the Raiders will struggle in 2017

After years of futility spent in the doldrums of the AFC West division, the Oakland Raiders finally looked primed to capture their first division title since 2002 last season, but came up just short in the final week of the regular season with a disappointing 24-6 defeat to the Denver Broncos. Much of that loss could be attributed to being forced to play backup rookie quarterback Conner Cook due to a season-ending broken fibula injury to Pro Bowl starter Derek Carr in Week 15. The loss meant Oakland relinquished the division crown to the Kansas City Chiefs and the bye in the playoffs and had to travel to Houston for the Wildcard round. This resulted in a virtual snoozefest of a game, where Brock Osweiler’s Texans eventually came away with a 27-14 win. With Cook in charge, the Raiders only managed 161 yards through the air, accompanied by three interceptions, and just like that, a once promising season came crashing back down to earth.

During the offseason, Carr has been busy rehabbing and actually says he feels stronger than prior to injury. This could be great news as Carr now enters his fourth year with the team, having already thrown 81 touchdowns compared to only 31 interceptions (only six last year). A healed and confident Carr, who is now firmly entrenched as the leader of the team, will be vital to any success the Raiders plan to have in 2017.

And success is what is expected now in Oakland, coming off a 12-4 campaign, where they scored the seventh most points (416) in the league. Vegas has them in a dead heat with the Chiefs to win the division at +220, followed by the Broncos at +240 and Los Angeles Rams at +450. They also sit at 18-1 odds to lift the Lombardi trophy, with only seven teams ahead of them in the betting market place.

Though the needle may be pointing up for the Silver and Black, fans shouldn’t get too far ahead of themselves just yet. Why you ask…?

 

  1. Their History

The Raiders had been a complete dumpster fire for over a decade and one good season can’t erase those memories. This is not a team that has built a culture of winning. * Side note. It may be from 2008 but look up “dumpster fire” on Urban Dictionary and the Raiders are actually mentioned. 157 people seemed to agree.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back to a serious note. No division titles since 2002 and no winning seasons until last year is no laughing matter. Their overall record in the past 14 years is a putrid 75-149.

 

  1. Potential fan unrest

The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum is one of the NFL’s oldest and smallest stadiums, which has seen the Raiders routinely rank 30th or lower in annual league attendance figures (pro-football-reference.com). The team could not work out a deal with the city for a new stadium so owner Mark Davis is packing his bags and taking his team to Las Vegas. While true, the Coliseum is already sold out for all seven home games (yes seven, more on that later) and the the move will likely not come until 2020, this could become a distraction.

 

  1. The bowl cut

Simply put, a man with this hair cut runs your team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Owner Mark Davis, who also seems to believe fanny packs are still (were they ever?) in fashion, also travels more than 400 miles to get THIS haircut! The man is worth an estimated $500 million, yet he still wakes up, looks in the mirror and says “Well Marky, it’s that time again for our yearly pilgrimage across the state to get my bowl cut.” Perhaps, he should spring for a new, local barber who refuses to provide him with this atrocity of a haircut and use his newfound free time to work on improving the team’s defense. Which brings us to…

 

  1. The defense

For as explosive as Oakland’s offense was last year, a toilet paper damn would’ve had a better chance of keeping opponents at bay than their defense did. There are some truly gawdy stats out there and here are a few highlights, or lowlights. The reward for this performance, another year of Defensive Coordinator Ken Norton Jr. Yay!

 

Yards per game 24th
Yards per play allowed 32nd
Sacks 32nd
Opponent rushing yards per game 23rd
Opponent passing yards per game 23rd
Points allowed 20th

  

  1. The schedule

If you take a closer look at the Raiders’ 2016 schedule you’ll see their path to 12-4 may not have been that tough. Of those 12 wins only four came against teams with a winning record. And those four were Tennessee, Denver, Tampa Bay and Houston—not exactly your top Super Bowl contenders. Overall their record versus winning teams was a mediocre 4-4. This season’s schedule shapes up much harder as they only play five teams who had a losing record last year, and their 2017 opponents offer a combined 144-111-1 record. Add to this the fact they start with three of their opening four games on the road, only play three home games total after Week 7, and that they are losing a home game when they “host” New England in Mexico City and it all shapes up to look like tough sledding for the Raiders in 2017.

 

  1. Their division

The Raiders didn’t fair too well versus tougher opponents last year, which is a problem because their division will probably be one of the tightest in the league. The AFC West was one of only two divisions to have three teams with a winning record. The odds to win the division in 2017 are also the tightest from top to bottom amongst all divisions. As per Oddshark, Oakland has not had a winning record within division since 2010 and last year only managed to score 18.7 points versus their division foes, versus the 30.4 points scored against the rest of the league. The Raiders were swept by the Chiefs last year, arguably their main competition for the division and will be playing them on a short week in Week 7.

 

  1. Has lady luck run out 

Parity in the NFL is a real thing. And when you consistently play close games, you aren’t supposed to come out on top every time. But Oakland was 6-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown. Nine of their wins came by single digits and five were by three or fewer points. The football gods were on their side—including when Del Rio shocked everyone by going for two points in Week 1 versus New Orleans and in a walk off overtime win against Tampa. The Raiders were also a league-best plus-7 in the completely random category of fumble plus/minus. Surely these stats will balance out.

 

  1. What’s the backup plan?

Carr sounds confident in his recovery and in a perfect world he’ll take every snap this year, but should he have any setbacks can Raider Nation count on Connor Cook? His two games in relief of Carr left much to be desired, and new signing EJ Manuel has been a disappointment in his career thus far only starting 17 games in his four-year career with a 6-11 record.

 

  1. What about Donald?

Left tackle Donald Penn has never missed a regular reason game in his 10-year NFL career, is a three-time Pro Bowler with Oakland, only gave up one sack all of last season and is one of the most respected players in the Raiders’ locker room. But… he’s in the middle of a holdout and isn’t happy about only being the 23rd highest-paid LT in the game. Getting him signed and happy will be crucial to keeping Carr protected.

 

  1. Then there’s this guy

Running back Latavius Murray ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year with 12, but was not resigned. So in comes Beast Mode. Marshawn Lynch, the hometown Oakland boy has come out of retirement to lead the Raiders’ run game. Lynch only made it into seven games in his last season in 2015, has over 2,300 carries on his odometer and by normal metrics for running backs is now over the hill at 31. He also managed to take a few moments of his time during Raiders’ training camp to make an impromptu visit to an NFL Network set to drop a few explicits and hit on a married reporter live on air. It was kinda funny, but mostly just really awkward. Take a look for yourself here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znNvBLMkpm4 

Every team has weaknesses and the Raiders are no different. But the arrow is pointing up on this franchise after years of disappointment. They have a star quarterback with a high octane offense, a strong offensive line and one of the best defensive lineman in Khalil Mack. Mack has started every game in his three-year Raiders’ career and has recorded 4, 15, and 11 sacks in those seasons. His 11 sacks last year was good enough for eighth in the league and only 4.5 behind the league lead. At 8-1 odds to win the regular season sack race, he offers a great value play. The same 8-1 odds can also be found on Oakland to win the AFC, with only New England and Pittsburgh being given lower odds. Given their weaknesses, if you feel the Raiders will regress and miss out on the playoffs you can find them paying +150 To Miss The Playoffs. Alternatively, you can find short odds of -200 for them To Make The Playoffs.

 

All odds mentioned courtesy of Bet365

NFL Week 17 Stat Breakdown

The last game of the NFL regular season is here. How does every game match up statistically? Take a look at this week’s breakdown.

 

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-12-32-05-amDownload the nfl-week-17-chart here.

NFL Week 8 Stat Breakdown

Check out our NFL Week 8 stat comparison between all teams and where each team may hold an advantage.

View the graphic below or download the pdf here: nfl-chart-week-8

 

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