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Jul 16

Major League Soccer Previews: July 16, 2016

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Columbus vs D.C

  • Despite holding a 67% advantage in possession over a Giovinco-less TFC on Wednesday and a lineup of mostly backups, Crew FC only came out of the home match with a 1-1 tie.
  • Columbus are bottom of the table in the East and have only 1 win in their last 11 MLS games. If you include two US Open Cup games during that stretch, it’s 2 wins from their past 13, with one of those being a 4-0 win at home to NASL side Tampa Bay. They have lost three of their past four games overall.
  • DC’s night was over quickly last Saturday in Philadelphia, being scored on twice by penalty and eventually falling 3-0. However, prior to that defeat, they had been undefeated in three games.
  • But, DC have not come away with all three points in Columbus since 2007.
  • They have also failed to win 14 of their past 15 road games and have a measly 5 goals in 9 games on the road this season, the lowest total in the MLS.

 

With both teams in such poor recent form a draw at +260 seems the most likely outcome.

Crew FC forward Ola Kamara has been hot despite his team’s poor overall form, having scored 8 goals in his last 7 games and offers value at +162 as an anytime scorer.

 

 

Colorado vs SKC

  • SKC had been on a good run of form, having only lost 1 of 7 games in all competitions, before falling 1-0 in Chicago to the league’s previously bottom team. SKC held 68% possession and sent 19 shots at the Chicago goal but couldn’t break down the Fire defence.
  • The Rapids sit 2nd in the West and overall standings but have 3 less games played than 1st placed Dallas.
  • They are unbeaten at home going 7-2-0 and have not lost a league game in their last 13 outings.
  • Colorado has won each of the previous 2 meetings between the teams this season.
  • The Rapids are buoyed by their 95th minute stoppage time goal to tie Vancouver 2-2 last Saturday.

 

The Rapids can seem to do no wrong lately and are well rested having not played since last Saturday. SKC are playing their 3rd game this week and will travel to the high altitude in Denver after playing in Chicago on Wednesday and at home last Sunday.

Take the well rested Rapids at -120.

 

 

FC Dallas vs Chicago

  • FCD sits tops in the league with 37 points, though have only scored 2 more goals than they have allowed (31/29).
  • Part of that has to do with the 5-0 masacre they suffered on Wednesday in Seattle, albeit with a mostly secondary lineup.
  • FCD are undefeated in their last 17 home matches.
  • Chicago Fire have not won on the road in 33 games…. 33 GAMES! Enough said.

 

Back FC Dallas to field a more regular lineup and bounce back after Wednesdays loss. -225.

 

 

RSL vs New England

  • While each of these teams currently sit in a playoff position, they each have the distinction of being 1 of 2 playoff teams from each conference to have a negative goal differential. They rank mid-pack in goals scored, yet only four teams have allowed more goals than RSL (30), and one team has allowed more goals than New England at 33.
  • RSL is undefeated at home and have actually scored in each of their home games at least once. They are 0-2-2 in their last 4 and come off a 2-0 defeat in Vancouver on Wednesday.
  • New England has only been held without a goal 5 times in 21 overall competitions this year. They broke a 3-game winless slide with a 3-1 win at home to Columbus last Saturday.
  • In their last 10 league games, New England has scored at least 2 goals, 8 times.
  • The Revolution have not won in Utah since 2007.

 

Both teams have several capable goal scorers and also give up many chances and goals. Look for each team to score at -175.

 

 

Vancouver vs Orlando City FC

  • Orlando are in a tailspin having gone 0-1-3 in their last 4 games and come off a 2-0 loss to the Red Bulls on Wednesday and have now failed to score in 3 games.
  • They recently fired their long time coach Adrian Heath, mutually terminated the contract of popular midfielder Adrian Winter and are still without the services of star player Kaka as well as defenders Ramos and Redding. In total 7 regulars are out of the lineup for tonight’s game.
  • Vancouver is one goal shy of allowing the most goals in the league and have recently signed some defensive reinforcements. They come off a midweek 2-0 win at home to RSL, who had rested some players.
  • The question is where are goals going to come from with this team? They have 4 goals in their last 2 games, yet one came from an RSL own goal and one was from a penalty. The Caps transferred Octavio Rivero who wasn’t working out, Kekuta Manneh just had surgery on his foot, backup and aging forward Blas Perez is out injured. Masato Kudo has just returned from injury which is a plus – he started up top last game before being subbed off for Eric Hurtado who has yet to score all season. Pedro Morales is the team’s top goal scorer with 6, however he has not scored in their past 10 games and most of his goals have come from penalties at the beginning of the season. Christian Bolanos is the team’s second leading scorer but only has 1 in the team’s last 11 games.

 

Vancouver is the team in better form but are heavy favourites at -200. While the safer play, Orlando may just show up enough to scrape out a point. A draw at +260 is tempting.

 

 

San Jose vs TFC

  • The Quakes started the season strong but have recently fallen on hard times having not won in their past 7 MLS games. That streak extends to 8 if you count a loss in the US Open Cup. Their last win came in a 3-1 win at home to Houston on May 11. Just over two months later, they’ve only scored more than once in game one time in a 2-2 tie. They’ve been held off the score sheet in the past two games, both 1-0 losses.
  • San Jose has a plethora of injuries with 4 defenders out or questionable.
  • TFC have their own injury concerns with several starters out themselves and fielded a very young lineup on Wednesday night.
  • That squad though, also missing Giovinco, was good enough to hold Columbus to a 1-1 draw.
  • These teams are about mirror images of each other with TFC being 6-6-6 (20GF/20GA) and 24 points, and San Jose sitting at 5-7-6 (19GF/21GA) and 22 points.
  • San Jose is rested having not played mid-week and have the home advantage, while Toronto should have the best player on the field in Giovinco return, and are enjoying a better run of form having not lost in their past 3 games.

 

Back the draw at +230.

 

Other bets:

Under 2.5 goals -150

1-1 Draw +500