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Sep 10

Early NFL Week 2 Line Movements

  • Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off with the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday
  • Let’s take a look at the early lines for Week 2

The 2019 NFL regular season is off and running and just like that we have one week in the books. As we begin to prepare to handicap Week 2, let’s compare some early offseason lines from CG Technology, compared to the opening lines for Week 2 today from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

NFL Week 2 Lines

Day Game Offseason Look Ahead Line (Home team) Week 2 Open
 Thurs Tampa Bay @ Carolina  -6  -5
 Sun San Francisco @ Cincinnati  Pick  +1.5
LA Chargers @ Detroit  +4  +2.5
Minnesota @ Green Bay  -3.5  -3
Indy @ Tennessee  Pick  -3
New England @ Miami  +8.5  +14.5
Buffalo @ New York Giants  -3  +2.5
Seattle @ Pittsburgh  Pick  -4
Dallas @ Washington  Pick  +7
Arizona @ Baltimore  -8.5  -13.5
Jacksonville @ Houston  -3.5  -9.5
Kansas City @ Oakland  +6.5  +8.5
Chicago @ Denver  -1  -1
New Orleans @ LA Rams  -3  -3
Philadelphia @ Atlanta  -1.5  Pick
 Mon Cleveland @ New York Jets  Pick  +2.5

 

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

The Bucs and Jameis Winston were sloppy in a home loss to a quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) who had basically not played in a year. They lost in Carolina 26-20 last season, and that’s just about where the spread sits today.

San Francisco @ Cincinnati

I know one team lost (Cincy) and one won (San Fran), but did the 49ers really look better than the Bengals, and enough so to be installed as early favorites in Week 2? The Bengals went toe-to-toe with the Seahawks in Seattle, while the Bucs did everything in their power to hand the game away to San Fran.

I now see some -1s out there on the Bengals, so clearly bettors are taking an early liking to Andy Dalton and the Bengals in Week 2.

LA Chargers @ Detroit

It’s a matchup of two teams that each went to overtime last week and while each came close to giving away late-game leads and leaving disappointed, it was only Detroit which left as losers. Well technically they tied 27-27, but after giving up a 24-6 lead to first-year QB Kyler Murray and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury, it basically will feel like a loss. The tie certainly won’t help in what should be an ultra-competitive NFC North division.

The Chargers benefitted from two missed fields goals, plus a missed XP by Colts’ placekicker Adam Vinatieri, but it wasn’t enough to stave off a late-game interception which allowed Jacoby Brisset to march Indy down the field to score the game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion to send the game to OT at 24-24. Unfortunately for the Colts, the comeback was ended early when LA punched in a winning TD on their opening drive with Austin Ekeler.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

The Packers play an NFC North rival for the second consecutive week, after defeating the Bears 10-3 on opening night.

The Vikings were able to shut down what was expected to be a high-powered Falcons’ offense, but were assisted by two Matt ryan interceptions. Despite Atlanta moving the ball well throug the air, the Viking’s ground game ripped through the Falcons to the tune of 172 yards. It was enough to give Minnesota a 28-0 heading into the fourth quarter. With any sort of similar effort, I like their chances as dogs at Lambeau.

Indy @ Tennessee

Obviously with no more Andrew Luck under center for the Colts, it’s no surprise this line has moved from the offseason. The Titans also blew away everyone’s potential Super Bowl darlings the Cleveland Browns last week, giving them every reason to be field goal favorites. With juice on the favorite right now (-3 -115) at Bet365, this number could be on the rise as the week goes on.

New England @ Miami

Way back in the summer, the Pats were seen as prohibitive -8.5 favs. They opened on Sunday as -14.5 favorites and bettors have been unloading their wallets on the Pats ever since. The Patriots are now full three-score favorites over the tanking Dolphins at -18.

If they defeated the Steelers by 30 points in Week 1, despite Tom Brady’s struggles in Miami previously, it’s really hard to not see them running the Fins off their own field.

The Pats are flying and they’ll be welcoming Antonio Brown to the offense, while the Fins are asking to fly out of town with several players reportedly asking their agents for trades after their Week 1 59-10 loss to Baltimore.

Buffalo @ New York Giants

The Giants were given the standard home-field advantage three points at CG this summer. Eli and the G-Men scored first in Week 1, but it was downhill from there where they went on to lose 35-17.

The Bills brushed off four turnovers on six possessions in the first half, plus a 13 point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Jets17-16. Had the Bills avoided even half of those turnovers, they quite possibly could’ve left MetLife Stadium with a more convincing win on the scoreboard.

Buffalo returns for round two at MetLife, this time against the Giants and I think are well-positioned to pull the small upset on Sunday.

Seattle @ Pittsburgh

Though the Steelers managed just three points against the Patriots, it hasn’t deterred Pittsburgh opening as favorites, despite the Seahawks winning in Week 1. If Andy Dalton and the Bengals could throw for 418 yards on the Hawks’ secondary on the road, don’t be surprised to see Big Ben have well, a big day himself at home in Week 2.

Dallas @ Washington

For one half, the Washington Redskins looked like the offseason prognosticators had it all wrong and maybe they could hang with the division favorite Philadelphia Eagles. With a 17-0 lead, they had everyone who picked the Eagles in survivor pools beginning to sweat. But then Desean Jackson happened.

Jackson finished with 154 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles held a 32-20 lead late into the game and not only came through for survivor pools but were six seconds away from covering the spread before Washington scored a garbage-time TD at the end of the game.

All that being said, it’s the Cowboys who have moved a full touchdown on the spread from an offseason pick’em, to now a seven-point favorite. Bettors clearly thought that was little too much of an overreaction, despite Dallas’ 35-17 Week 1 win. Bet365 now sees Dallas as -4.5 favs.

Dallas lost in Washington 20-17 last season and while I do think they should win in Week 2, a home dog in division is always dangerous. Dallas could be a teaser play if the line drops any lower.

Arizona @ Baltimore

The Ravens’ line has moved five points since the offseason. But how much more would it have moved if not for the dramatic fourth quarter comeback by the Cards? And how much can we really take from their impressive win over the tanking Dolphins? The juice is on the favorite right now, meaning this number could reach two touchdowns soon. The Cardinals should have lost if not for a timeout miscue by the Lions’ coaching staff. I can’t trust them traveling across the country.

But I also don’t want to make a habit of laying two or more touchdowns. Ravens could be bought down to -6.5 on a seven-point teaser.

Jacksonville @ Houston

This one has seen a massive line movement, mainly to do with the fact that the Jags are down to rookie backup Gardner Minshew at QB after offseason signing Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle in Week 1. Minshew was impressive in his debut going 22/25 for 275 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. The Texans will have limited tape on the rookie and are coming off a short week having played and lost on Monday night, so possibly the Jags can stay inside the number.

Kansas City @ Oakland

And we continue with the clavicle stories as the Chiefs will also be missing a key component to their offense with WR Tyreek Hill suffering a similar injury to Foles in Week 1 and will be out of the Chiefs’ lineup for a while.

The Chiefs were -6.5 points favs in the offseason, opened as -8.5 in Week 2 and currently sit at -7.5. Kansas City put up 40 points on what was supposed to be a strong Jags’ D in Week 1. Can they repeat the success in Oakland? The Raiders’ D basically shut out the Broncos for most of the night on MNF, save for a late TD in the fourth quarter. It was painful to watch Joe Flacco operate under center. But Mahomes is no Flacco and Week 2 will be a true test for the defense.

Last year we saw KC come to Oakland and walk away with a 40-33 win. Despite the short turnaround, I’ll give an early lean to the Raiders Week 1 success carrying over to Week 2. Maybe not to win, but to at least keep with the 7.5.

Chicago @ Denver

Eww. Just eww. Probably the least watchable game of the week. These teams combined, COMBINED for 19 points in Week 1. If not for a late Denver touchdown that total would have been 12. I’m not generally a huge totals bettor, but despite this being the lowest total on the board at 40.5, is there any way to go other than the “Under”?

New Orleans @ LA Rams

Rams -3 in the offseason. Rams -3 to open Week 2 and Rams -2.5 today. Not sure we’ve seen anything from Week 1 from either team that won’t suggest a close contest which could come down to a field goal. The Saints won 30-28 on a last-minute Monday night Will Lutz field goal, and the Rams won by three points (30-27) away to Carolina. At home in 2018, the Saints won 45-35. I’ll lean to the Rams returning the favor this year.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

This line is bouncing around between a pick and the Eagles as one point favs. Home teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 between the Eagles and Falcons. In primetime, I’m leaning towards a bounceback performance from Atlanta as a short home dog.

Cleveland @ New York Jets

Big letdown for both teams in Week 1 as Cleveland was blown out by the Titans and the Jets coughed up a 16-0 lead and failed to win despite forcing four first-half turnovers from Buffalo. I think I still trust the skill players of the Browns a little more than the Jets and at -2.5 they’ll likely be one of the more popular bets in Week 2.