Mar 16

Betting Diaries of the #Coronapocolypse: Weekend 1

Wow how the world changes. A week ago I was looking forward to going to Vegas for March Madness. A week ago March Madness existed. So did other sports. But then one by one they didn’t. But I’m a bettor. It’s what I do for fun and part of my career. So I found action. It was hard. But I did deep dives into the 5th division of England soccer (it was cancelled by the time I woke up), Serbia, Russia, Turkey, Costa Rica, Mexico and many others. Some leagues I had some knowledge in. Others I couldn’t tell you one player’s name. It was hard to find info. But in some ways refreshing to do basic research, have no bias and go with my gut. The results were….surprisingly, not that bad. Not amazing, but decent. You can find some gems down in random leagues. But I learned my cutoff point. It was Guatemala. That pick was bad, and following the Guastatoya Twitter account for updates, was a new low past any of the dodgy streams I had somehow procured for other games. The streams.. what an adventure. Never was I so happy to listen to Turkish commentators, or follow along with no commentary at all so long as I could watch something. I chatted with a girl from Turkey on Twitter who told me I should’ve never bet her Fenerbahçe team cause they have horrible management (things I wish I new earlier). I think I set my alarm to watch Zenit in Russia one day. Google Translate was helpful in deciphering a couple game previews I stumbled across. Sunday’s highlight was understanding every 20th Spanish word during the America v Cruz Azul match. But hey, I’ll take it, cause Liga MX is now the latest league to shut its doors after this game. There were positives. I chatted with a couple friends. Text some people I hadn’t talked to in a while. Worked out. Slept in. Had way too much time to ponder “why on earth is there no toilet paper in the grocery aisle and people are freaking out, while the shelf over is filled with kleenex, napkins and other paper products, which while surely not ideal, could probably be used in a pinch (should I buy napkins?..no I think I’m good)…” And also… “where is all the water that was stacked up last week, are taps not working anymore?! Omg this may be worse than I thought, better check Twitter.” Nope, tap water is still safe… but omg no, now Xbox is down. We may go into lockdown? Jokerit is pulling out of the KHL playoffs (there goes my Tuesday), my gym is now closed… Ok no more Twitter. At this rate folks I may be the biggest Honduran soccer expert by next weekend, that or UFC. Maybe the ponies. I hear the Australian A League plays at like 3am. Man who knows what tomorrow will bring by the time I wake up. But one thing is for sure. I miss sports : ( 

Oh man, just lost my bet on a 98′ minute missed penalty. Oooff…

*This post fully acknowledges there are more important things than sports and is simply trying to find some humour in an otherwise poor situation. Stay safe out there folks.

But also, anyone have any tips on camel racing? Asking for a friend….

Feb 22

2020 MLS Season Preview Betting Guide

The 2020 Major League Soccer season is just one week away.

To prepare for the season ahead, I’ve compiled 58 pages of team news, notes, stats and betting angles to consider throughout the season. We have opening odds to win MLS Cup and the Golden Boot, each team’s 2020 schedule and a preview for each side ahead of February 29’s opening kickoff.

Click here to download the PDF.

Sep 28

NFL Week 4 ATS, Teaser & Upset Best Bets

Weekly NFL

ATS Pick of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ Detroit Lions

The Westgate Superbook had KC listed as -4.5 favorites last week in the Week 4 look-ahead lines. Despite wins from both KC and Detroit, that line has moved a full two points this week to -6.5, with some sevens out there too.

Regardless of the line move, if you can still find KC at under a touchdown, I feel there is some serious value there.

The Lions have to be the least impressive undefeated team left in the league. Technically since they have a tie (2-0-1), I suppose they actually are.

Detroit gave away a commanding lead late to a quarterback and head coach in their first NFL game in Week 1 against Arizona. They were narrow 13-10 winners at home to the LA Chargers in Week 2, however the Chargers were 1/3 on field goals, had a touchdown called back on a penalty, lost a fumble on the goaline, and Philip Rivers threw a basically game-ending interception in the endzone on the Chargers’ final possession.

Last week the Lions nearly coughed up a 20-10 lead, but held on to win 27-24 in Philadelphia. The scoreboard may have shown a win, but the Eagles held an advantage in time of possession, first downs and both passing and rushing yards. Philly receivers had seven dropped passes, the Eagles had three fumbles, two lost, and gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown. The Eagles were also playing shorthanded with numerous key players missing to injury.

Statistically, the Lions rank 23rd in defense, allowing 394.7 YPG. That actually ranks above the Chiefs, who are 24th allowing 395.7.

The Chiefs’ second-ranked offense is unlikely to make the same sort of mistakes as Detroit’s previous opponents though. KC is averaging 487 YPG on offense and Patrick Mahomes leads the league with 1,195 passing yards. The Chiefs have put up 40, 28 and 33 points. They’re also 3-0 ATS, having already won by 14, 18 and 5 points. However, that five-point win over Baltimore last week, truthfully was flattering to the Ravens who were down 30-13 at one point.

Two-Team Teaser Play

LAC: -7.5 (from -14.5)
New England: Pick (from -7)
Odds: -130

With A) how completely abysmal the Miami Dolphins have looked, and B), how out of this world the New England Patriots have looked, you could likely easily convince me to elevate either of these teams to regular ATS plays.

However, the Chargers keep doing Chargers things to give away games and I don’t want to start laying three scores on the road. And while New England have allowed exactly 20 points over their past four games and just six before heading into halftime last week, the Bills are 3-0, at home, and the line is hovering around a touchdown or more.

Let’s also remember the level of New England’s competition this year: a woeful Steelers team at home, a road blowout to the tanking Dolphins and a home win to a Jets’ team starting a third-string QB. The Pats are good. Real good. But they still qualify for a little insurance in this teaser play.

The first leg requires very little analysis. The Dolphins aren’t doing anything well. They’re 0-3 SU and ATS and have been outscored 133-16. Ouch.

The Chargers ‘should’ blow this team out. Yet somehow, they are an overtime win away from being 0-3 themselves. Philip Rivers is 3rd in YPG, but the Chargers rank in the bottom 10 in the league in giveaways. They held a 17-7 lead last week at half at home to the Texans, but gave up 14 third quarter points and scored just three points of their own all second half, to fall 27-20.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Patriots/status/1177254901031870464?s=20

The markets don’t seem to be too excited to back Los Angeles at the opening -17 either, as the line’s dropping to -14.5. Perfect. The Chargers at -14.5, still seems a little scary. The Chargers at under 10 points? I like much better.

Tie that to a straight up Patriots win and we have this week’s two-team 7-point teaser play.

Moneyline Upset

Minnesota +105

It’s not a sexy high-priced dog, but Week 4’s underdog play of the week has to come from an NFC North rivalry between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

Division matchups generally produce tight games, and last year’s trip to Chicago resulted in a 25-20 win for the Bears. However, it was at home where the Vikings suffered a heavier defeat, losing 24-10 in their regular season finale.

While the Bears barely broke a sweat Monday night in beating down Case Keenum and the Washington Redskins (31-15), they’ll still be coming off a short week to play this rivalry game.

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1176336338817298433?s=20

The Bears’ defense has been outstanding so far this year ranking 8th overall in YPG. They’ve been especially strong against the rush, ranking 5th, only allowing 68.7 YPG.

That’s great and all, however let’s look at the offenses they’ve faced. Green Bay (22nd), Denver (20th) and Washington (23rd). Those team’s rushing offenses also rank 25th, 15th and 30h respectively. Starts to paint a bit of a different picture. The Bears’ D could and likely is one of the league’s best, but get back to me when they’ve played some better opposition.

That should come this weekend against the 14th ranked Vikings offense, which ranks 2nd in rushing YPG.

Of course the Vikings will likely need to do a better job of mixing their rushing and passing offenses as they rank a lowly 31st in passing YPG. However that is only just slightly below the 29th ranking of the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky is serviceable, but nothing special. He has completed exactly 7 passes of more than 20 yards this year and none of 40+.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1176504913301520384?s=20

In a divisional game where both passing offenses could be limited, I’ll side with the small road favorite.

Sep 10

Early NFL Week 2 Line Movements

  • Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off with the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday
  • Let’s take a look at the early lines for Week 2

Continue reading

Sep 29

Soccer Picks Sept. 29/18

By Ryan Métivier

 

Last time I released my plays in text format they were the most successful. So since we did not release a show again this week I’ll try it again.

 

Bet 1:

Wolverhampton
Heerenveen/ADO den Haag (Holland) BTTS

Parlay: +170 1 unit

 

Bet 2:

Wolfsburg/Monchangladbach BTTS
Bournemouth/Crystal Palace BTTS

Parlay: +160 1 unit

 

Bet 3:

LAFC double chance
Seattle Sounders
DC United/Montreal Impact BTTS

Parlay: +180 1 unit

 

Bet 4:

Fiorentina double chance
Sassuolo/AC Milan BTTS

Parlay: +122 1 unit

 

****Addition below as of Saturday, Sept 29 – 3:40pm.

 

Bet 5:

Minnesota United/New York City FC BTTS
LA Galaxy Over 1.5 team goals

Parlay: +108 1 unit

 

Shred The Spread Tipster Results

Tipster  Record Accuracy Units
Alex 3-11 21.4% +1.13
Daniel  14-15 48.3%  +10.59
Ryan  8-14 36.6% -3.87

Sep 14

Shred The Spread Weekend Soccer Best Bets (09/14/18)

By: Ryan Métivier

 

Schedules did not align this week for another video, but as the man currently sitting in the bottom of the standings in our weekly show, I’m feeling the itch to release some picks and make up some ground. So here goes with a few of my bets for this weekend and the following week in the soccer world.

 

Bet 1: Treble: +159 1 Unit — EPL

Bournemouth/Leicester Both Teams To Score
& Man City Win & Over 1.5 Game Goals
& Chelsea Win & Over 1.5 Game Goals

Bournemouth have scored twice at home in each of their games so far, while also allowing two in their last home match in a 2-2 draw with Everton. They’ve only failed to score in 1/4 games on the road to Chelsea. They’ve also only kept one clean sheet which came at home to the lowly Cardiff. Leicester City have seen both teams score in 3/4 of their matches including both road games. I ecpect both to find the back of the net in this match,

Each of Cheslea and Man City are heavy favorites at home at Cardiff and Fulham respectively. There is little value in straight up wins and honestly not much more in how I’m betting them here. But a win for both and at least two goals in each match bump up this parlay to a respectable +159. It would be shocking to see either of these clubs lose to a newly promoted squad at home.

https://twitter.com/ManCity/status/1040668868040110087

 

Bet 2: Double: +141 1 Unit — MLS

Atlanta United Win
& Toronto FC/LA Galaxy Both Teams To Score

If I kept my bets to MLS I’d be soaring in this competition. All my picks lost on the the last show, but in MLS, season-long I’m up about 10 units. Anyways here we have one of the best teams in the league as a small favorite on the road against one of the league’s worst. Road wins are always hard to come by in MLS but the gulf in class between Atlanta United and Colorado Rapids is just too big. Yes the Rapids have shown some life of late, but that was short-lived as they’ve now dropped three straight. The Five Stripes have a little controversary around the club with Manager Tata Martino apparently fielding offers from other clubs, but they’ll be keen to regain top spot in the East and prove why Tata should stay in the Dirty South.

In TFC and LA we have two clubs likely not making the playoffs. The Galaxy have slightly better odds and could get the “new coach bump” with Sigi Schmid parting ways (getting fired?) with the Galaxy and Dominic Kinnear taking over on an interim basis. Any team with Zlatan is always a threat to score, and similarly any team with the backline that the Galaxy feature on the road are threats to get shredded. In their past two road games they’ve allowed an incredible 11 goals! LA hasn’t won since July 18, but they’ve scored in all but one match in the six games since. In fact LA has only failed to score at least once in four games this season and three of those came early in the season. In TFC, they face a club who was just embarrassed by the Galaxy’s cross-town rivals in LAFC. LAFC put four past TFC in Toronto in a 4-2 road win in TFC’s last game. Both teams have scored in 7/8 recent TFC matches and the last time Toronto failed to score at home came back in July.

 

Bet 3: Treble: +222 1 Unit — MLS

RSL win
& LAFC win
& Houston/Portland both team to score

Let’s stick in MLS here. In RSL/Minnesota we have the best home team against the worst road in the Western Conference. RSL is 10-3-1 at home, while Minnesota is 1-1-12 on the road. The Loons will have a short week as they played on Wednesday in DC and guess what…? They lost. Shocking! Despite taking a 1-0 lead early in the second half, they promptly gave it up and lost 2-1.

I’m going to fade another road team here with the Revolution travelling to LAFC. New England has been dreadful and finally won their first game since June 18 in their last match. Yes it was impressive to claim victory on the the road to a suddenly shaky NYCFC, but they were badly outplayed and had no business winning. It’s likely too bad the international break came when it did, as New England wasn’t able to build momentum off that win. LAFC will be too strong at home and Lee Nguyen will have added motivation playing his old club.

Dating back to 2014 only twice in this matchup between Houston and Portland have both teams not scored over the past 12 games. These teams met up back in July in Portland where the Timbers were 2-1 victors. These teams are going opposite directions with the Timbers undefeated in three, while the Dynamo haven’t won an MLS match since July 7—ooof. Houston can generally score at home though having only failed to do so twice this year. Portland meanwhile has been known to struggle on the road having not won in the past four attempts. They are also only 3-5-5 in their travels while scoring 16 and allowing 25. The Dynamo have been dreadful but they are in the US Open Cup Finals on September 26. Between this match and then, they will also play on the road to Orlando four days prior to the final. In all likelihood they will rest players before the final to try and be fresh to salvage some hardware from this season. Which means this could be a game where they look to build some confidence and come out fresh after the international break. That being said I can’t be confident in them keeping a clean sheet against the in-form Timbers. Even Over 1.5 game goals could add a little value here, but all things seem to point to both teams scoring.

Bet 4: Treble: +180 1 unit — Champions League 

Borussia Dortmund win
Liverpool/PSG both teams to score
Barcelona over 1.5 team goals

I want to jump ahead to Tuesday’s opening fixtures in the Champions League. I love the short odds with Dortmund on the road in Belgium. Club Brugge are flying at the top of the Belgian First Division, but playing one of Germany’s elite will be a completely different test.

After that, there is just so much firepower on the field between Liverpool and PSG it’s hard to not see both teams finding the back of the net. Throw in at least two goals from Barca at home to PSV and you have almost two-to-one odds.

 

Shred The Spread Tipster Results

Tipster  Record Accuracy Units
Alex 2-7 22.2% +4.40
Daniel  11-12 47.8%  +3.26
Ryan  4-9 30.7% -5.10

Jun 13

How to Bet Soccer

The World Cup of soccer is here! For those who may not be as familiar with the numerous ways you can bet a soccer match, below will outline some of the most typical bets you can make depending on your Sports Book.

It is important to note that during the Group Stage, matches can end in a draw after full-time. However afterwards, during the Knockout Rounds, should a match be drawn after full-time, teams will then proceed to play two additional 15-minute halves. Should they still be tied after this, the game will be decided via penalty shootout.

One more thing to note is in soccer the home team is typically listed as the first team on the betting card/menu, which is different from traditional North American sports. So if you see “Russia v Saudi Arabia” — Russia is the home team in this instance. Now during the World Cup, as the host nation, Russia will be the only country who truly holds any home field.

3-Way Moneyline

Most wagers in soccer are decided after full-time (90 minutes), plus any extra additional or “extra time” that is added by the referee for injuries, stoppages, etc. A three-way money line breaks down the possible results into three options.

So in a soccer match your options would either be for the home team to win, the away team to win or for the match to end in a draw.

Double Chance

In Double Chance bets you are placing a wager on two of the possible three outcomes as described previously. Your options would be Team A and the Draw, Team B and the Draw or Team A or Team B.

Each of these selections will pay out differently based on the original three-way money line lines but your probability or winning is much higher. Let’s look at an example.

The first game of the World Cup features Russia versus Saudi Arabia. The odds for this match are:

Full Time Result:

 

Russia -350

Draw +400

Saudi Arabia +1000

 

Double Chance

 

Russia or Draw -1600

Draw of Saudi Arabia +275

Russia or Saudi Arabia -550

 

Draw No Bet

In Draw No Bet (DNB) the concept is similar to a Double Chance bet. In this case you are eliminating the Draw option from your bet.

In the example above you would be choosing either:

Russia DNB or Saudi Arabia DNB. The payout is less than your standard Full Time Result bet, but more than a Double Chance bet. With this time of bet if your team wins, you will win your bet, but if they tie/draw, rather losing, you will be refunded your stake. This is referred to as a “push”.

 

Asian Handicap

Think of an Asian Handicap bet like a spread you would see in an American Football game (NFL). Here you are giving Team A or Team B a handicap to cover or to beat. These can typically be adjusted by a couple goals either way but the most standard would be:

 

Team A +1.5

 

Team A must not lose by more than one goal for you to win your bet. They could win by any amount, draw or lose by one for you to win.

 

Team B -1.5

 

Team B must win by two goals or more for you to win your bet.

 

Over/Under Goals Market

Much like an over/under for other sports, you are selecting how many total goals between both teams will be scored in the match.

Example: Over/Under 2.5 if the most typical Over/Under prop in soccer

An Over bet will require at least 2 combined goals in the match

An Under bet will require 2 or fewer combined goals in the match

 

Over/Under Corners Market

A over/under market on how many corner kicks there will be during the game.

 

Over/Under Cards Market

A over/under market on how many cards (yellow and red) will be shown or given out during the game.

Half-Time/Full-Time Result

With this bet you are choosing what the result will be at half-time in the match and at full-time.

Examples

 

Team A – Team A

Team A – Draw

Team A – Team B

Draw – Team A

Draw – Draw

Draw – Team B

Team B – Team A

Team B – Draw

Team B – Team B

 

As you can see you are selecting if one team will lead at both half-time and at the end of the game (full-time), if one team will lead at half and then the game will end tied, if the game will be tied at half and then one team will win, if one team will be leading at half and then the other team will end up winning at full-time or if the game will be tied at both half-time and also at full-time.

 

Both Teams To Score

As simple as it sounds. Each team in the match must score at least one goal each. The final score does not matter so as long as each team has scored. =

 

Total Team Goals

Select an over/under on how many goals a specific team will score in the match.

Examples:

 

Team A Over 1.5 (Team A must score two goals or more for a winning bet)

Team B Under 2.5 (Team B must score two goals or fewer for a winning bet)

 

Anytime Goal Scorer

Select a player to score from either team to score a goal during the match.

Apr 07

MLS Week 6 Betting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week’s Record:

2-0

+1.4 Units

Season Record:

5-5

-0.1 units

 

Atlanta United vs LAFC

Atlanta proved they can win without dominating offensively as they grinded out a 1-0 road victory in frigid Minnesota last week even after going a man down before halftime. But that narrow win has been their only low scoring game this year as their previous games were high-scoring affairs with 5, 4 and 4 goals combined. Sound like a lot of goals?

Well LAFC would still have them beat even with playing one less game. While Atlanta has scored eight and allowed six in four games, LAFC have scored nine and and allowed five in only three games. Their past three contests saw 7, 6 and 1 goals combined.

LAFC will be looking to bounce back after blowing a three goal lead to cross-town rival LA Galaxy last week and should be good value for at least one goal versus an Atlanta United team missing some key defensive players. Atlanta has only failed to scored at home once in their existence and that was a playoff loss to Columbus back in October.

Bet: BTTS -225

Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew

Although the season is young, this game features tow teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference standings. Chicago sits dead last with 1 point in three games, while Columbus is in second place with 10 points in five. The Fire have scored an average of 2 goals per game so far though and now have scored at least once in 34 straight home games. Our write up last week was a selection on the BTTS bet in the Fire match and went into greater detail on the amount of goals both being scored and allowed by the Fire, specifically at home and last week did not dissapoint seeing a 2-2 draw with Portland. We’ll look for the trend to continue here with the Fire allowing an average of 2.66 goals per game so far, and going up against a club in Columbus who score just below two goals per game themselves with nine in five games. Three of the last fouyr games between these two have also seen both teams find the score sheet.

BET: BTTS -200

 

Official Bet: Double +116 for 1 Unit

Mar 31

MLS Week 5 Double

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week’s Record:

1-1

-1 Unit

Season Record:

3-5

-1.5 units

 

Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers

The Fire have opened this season 0-2 but their games have certainly been exciting with 10 goals scored combined in their matches. They’ve managed to score four times in these games, but defense has been their problem with the backline shipping six the other way.

Chicago Fire home games in MLS have historically been high scoring. If you look back at the last 27 home games, two or more goals have been scored an incredible 26 times! But it gets better as 22 times at least three goals have been scored, with at least four goals not far behind at 14.

The Fire are basically a given to score when playing on home soil, having done so in 33 consecutive league games.

This has been a tough start for Timbers’ new coach Giovanni Savarese as Portland is winless in their first three games, while only scoring twice—both by Sebastian Blanco. Defense has also been an issue for Portland with seven goals allowed.

Portland has a long history of road struggles having only won two of their past 18 league matches and none of their past six. Their games have seen goals though, with two or more coming 14 times. Last year’s meeting between these two sides saw a 2-2 draw. It’s only a matter of time before Portland’s offence gets going, and with Blanco, Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi available in attack, coupled with a suspect Fire defense, this could be the game.

BET: BTTS -188

 

LA Galaxy vs LAFC

It’s the first installment of what’s affectionally being called “El Trafico”. The old guard Galaxy versus the new kids on the block LAFC. LAFC have been the hotter of the two out of the gates winning 1-0 on the road to Seattle and 5-1 on the road to RSL. LAFC have put up six goals already while only allowing one.

Galaxy have seen a mixed bagged to open the season going 1-1-1 and scoring and allowing three goals. Last week, despite only dressing 17 total players, they mananged to hang on, on the road for a 0-0 draw in Vancouver.

With some players hopefully returning from injury, others returning from international duty and the massive addition of Zlatan Ibrahimovic available for selection, the Galaxy hope to be better prepared for this derby match.

With the amount of firepower on the pitch including the Galaxy’s Ibra, Ola Kamara and LAFC’s Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi, coupled with the sheer magnitude of how important this first derby match will be in establishing/maintaining relevance in the LA market, goals are the only way to look here.

BET: BTTS -175

 

 

 

BET:

DOUBLE +140

1 Unit

Mar 17

The MLS Double: March 17

 

 

 

 

 

Last week’s record:

2-0

+1.5 units

Season record:

2-2

+.5 Unit

 

Philadelphia vs. Columbus

Eight of the past 11 times these two teams have played both teams have scored. The Union won 2-0 in their first game of the season though it was against a New England squad who had both CBs shown red cards. Across all competitions the Union have only failed to score at home once in their past 11 tries and now welcome the always dangerous Daivd Accam to their lineup this year.

Columbus have roared out of the gates with two wins in two, beating Toronto on the road 2-0 in Week 1 and following that up with a 3-2 win at home to Montreal last week. New signing Gyasi Zardes has been hot to start the year with three goals already.

Pick: BTTS -200

 

Montreal vs. Toronto

The 401 Derby renews its’ rivalry this afternoon.

In their last matchup Toronto slipped by with a narrow 1-0 win, but prior to that seven straight meetings between these two teams saw both teams score. In fact in the most recent two games before that 1-0 Toronto win, 12 goals were scored combined.

Toronto is sitting in an unexpected last place in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve only played one game and it was sandwiched between two Champions League games. Speaking of, TFC will be coming off a huge high from progressing past Tigres earlier this week. Though Toronto ended up losing the match in Mexico, they progressed through away goals. Surely some players will get rested this afternoon after the trip to Mexico but Head Coach Greg Vanney would be wise to keep some of his regulars in the lineup for this matchup with their rival.

It’s no surprise that Montreal is lower in the standings too, actually only one spot above Toronto in the East. Montreal is still sorting out their defence and have seen their net bulge five times in their past two games. However any team with Ignacio Piatti and Matteo Mancosu up front will always be dangerous—especially considering Toronto will likely be without defenders Justin Morrow and Chris Mavinga who both were injured down in Monterrey.

Pick: BTTS -163

 

 

BET:

 

DOUBLE:

+142 1 Unit